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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #4
Published, March 6, 2014
Copyright © 1995-2014
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:
Off-Season Report #4: 2014 Free Agency Preview - 3/6
ONLINE NOW:
- Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 3/6
- Preview/Review Podcasts: 26 Teams - 3/5 (20-minute podcasts for all 32 teams will be up Friday)
- Depth Charts - 3/3
- 25 “Buy-Low” Keeper Prospects - 2/26
- 2014's Coaching Changes - 2/14
- SOS Adjusted QB Scores for 2013 - 2/12
- 2013 Team Reviews/2014 Previews
- 2013's Lessons Learned - 2/4
UP NEXT:
- 2014 Free Agency Tracker - We'll be tracking and analyzing all the free agent activity as it happens starting next week.
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2014 Free Agency Preview
Updated, 3/6/14
While we don’t expect any superstars at the skill positions to change teams in the 2014 off-season, there are still many potential fantasy impact players who are impending free agents this spring. After a three-day negotiating period for teams, the new league year officially begins March 11 at 4 p.m. Eastern, giving the NFL a juicy primetime free agency special, and it’s possible many of the top names in this article are locked up in the days – or even hours – after the new league year starts.
Under the 2011 NFL CBA, players who have accrued four years of service time are designated as unrestricted free agents – you might remember that only players with six years of service time could be UFAs once the last CBA expired and the league played without a salary cap.
In this article series, we will have an extensive list and analysis of all of the key free agents in the NFL this off-season (and some guys who aren’t so key). Some of these guys will make an impact next year, and many will not. We have you covered either way.
To start, a primer on the 2014 free agency process:
Free Agency Glossary
These are terms you’ll hear a lot in this article and over the next few weeks. These brief descriptions should have you adequately prepared for the whole process.
Unrestricted free agent: Any NFL player who has accrued four or more years of service time and has an expired contract. An unrestricted free agent is free to sign with any team in whatever situation for whatever contract he deems most beneficial, with no penalty to the acquiring team.
Restricted free agent: Any NFL player who has accrued three years of service time and has an expired contract. Restricted free agents are free to negotiate on the open market. Once a player is given an offer sheet, his previous team has a seven-day “right of first refusal” period to match the offer.
If the controlling team declines, the acquiring team could be forced to pay a draft-pick penalty for signing that player to a contract, the cost of which is depending on the RFA tender offered to the player by his previous club. On the flip side, if a player is not offered an RFA tender by his club, he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Teams can also work out trades with interested parties, adjusting the terms any draft-pick compensation the player’s RFA tender would require (the Dolphins and Patriots did this in 2007 with Wes Welker).
Exclusive rights free agent: Any NFL player who has accrued two or fewer years of service time and has an expired contract. The term “free agent” is a misnomer, in that the player has no contract, but his rights are controlled by his team unless that team willingly decides to release him. If an exclusive rights free agent is tendered a contract (at the veteran minimum), he must sign it if he wishes to play because he has no negotiating power. For the purposes of this article, we’ll list ERFAs under the “RFA” section.
Franchise tag: Any player who will become an unrestricted or restricted free agent can be designated as his club’s franchise player. If a player is designated as a franchise player, he is tendered a one-year, guaranteed contract. To make a complicated scenario simple (and trust us, it’s complicated), the franchise tag under the new CBA signed in 2011 is calculated as a percentage of the salary cap, using the salaries of highly paid players at the tagged player’s position, which reduces the overall value of the tag (this was a “win” for the owners in the CBA negotiations). Every dollar of the franchise tag is guaranteed.
If a player is designated a franchise player, he can sign the one-year deal immediately, and he can continue to negotiate a long-term deal with his club. However, once a deadline in mid-July passes, the franchise player is no longer free to negotiate a long-term deal and must either sign the franchise tag or hold out (teams can also work out trades). Moreover, if a franchise player holds out past a certain date late in the NFL season, he is no longer free to sign the tag and will go without pay for the entire 2014 season (Vincent Jackson came dangerously close to this date during the 2010 season).
A player can be either an “exclusive” or “non-exclusive” franchise player. A “non-exclusive” franchise player is free to negotiate with other teams, like a restricted free agent, and like in an RFA scenario, his previous club is given right of first refusal. If the club declines to match an offer sheet, the player’s previous club is awarded two 1st-round picks as compensation. Because of this, we won’t often see a “non-exclusive” franchise player sign with another club.
In 2014, teams must designate a player a franchise player by March 3 at 4:00 p.m. Eastern.
Transition tag: Like the franchise tag, the transition tag is a way for teams to retain their unrestricted or restricted free agents under a one-year guaranteed deal. However, there are some differences, explaining why it is not as prevalent as the franchise tag. First, and most notably, the transition tag is “cheaper” to the offering team, as it takes into account the salaries of 10 players instead of five, like in the franchise tag.
However, transitioned players are always free to negotiate with other clubs, like restricted free agents, and their controlling clubs are given right of first refusal. But there is no draft-pick compensation for being unable to match an offer sheet, unlike the two 1st-round pick compensation on a franchised player.
This has led to very interesting scenarios in the past, in which teams included “poison pill” clauses in their offer sheets to transitioned players, making it essentially impossible for a player’s old club to match the offer (Steve Hutchinson and Nate Burleson were signed with “poison pill” deals in the past). The risk was minimal for offering teams – they didn’t have to pay any compensation, like they would have to under an RFA tender or a franchise tender.
That’s why the tag is little-used. While there is less financial commitment, there is a greater risk to the club offering the tag.
In previous years, teams could use both the franchise tag and a transition tag. Under the new CBA signed in 2011, teams can choose only one of the two tags.
Quarterbacks
Note: Players are listed in a rough order, based on potential fantasy impact/roles. Age listed is as of opening weekend 2014.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Michael Vick (Phi, 34) – Clearly the cream of the free agent QB crop, Vick has insisted throughout the 2013 season that he still feels he can be a starter in the league. And indeed, we think he’s better than at least a handful of current NFL starters. However, will there be a team willing to sign Vick to be its starting QB? Some teams that are expected to have interest (the Jets and the Bucs among them, according to our buddy Adam Schefter from ESPN). Here’s the problem – Vick may have to go to a bad team that needs a QB that isn’t in position to draft one or doesn’t like any of the options this year, he may have to go somewhere to compete with a youngster (like Tampa or the Jets), or he’ll have to go to a contender as a backup (like the Eagles). With Vick turning 34 in June, he simply can’t be sold on a fan base as the QB of the future, and it’s hard to imagine a team signing him and feeling he’s the final piece to a championship, given the fact the he still makes the same mistakes he made as an inexperienced player, and he can’t be trusted to stay healthy. Vick may have to choose between starting and being part of a winner. It’ll be one of the more interesting storylines to follow this off-season.
Josh McCown (Chi, 35) – It’s rare to see a QB play his best football at 34, but that’s exactly what happened with McCown last season. Initially re-signed to back up Jay Cutler in 2013, McCown ended up playing a much larger role when Cutler battled through multiple injuries in the second half of the season. McCown appeared eight times and had five starts for the Bears, going 149/224 (66.5%) for 1829 yards with 13 TDs to just 1 INT. He went 3-2 as a starter with the offense remaining strong, despite Cutler’s absence. The career resurgence for McCown could give him some extra attention in the free agent market, but he’s already expressed an interest in returning to Chicago and the team would like to bring him back. McCown made six of his starts from Weeks Nine through Fourteen, and during that time, he was tied for 9th in FPG (23.0) among QBs. While he certainly benefited from the fantasy-friendly offense HC Marc Trestman ran in Chicago, it’s fair to wonder if McCown will get looks from other teams after his strong performance in 2013. But given Cutler’s durability issues and McCown’s advanced age, it would be a mild surprise to see the Bears let him go.
Josh Freeman (Min, 26) – Freeman’s career has gone off the rails in a hurry, and while he should draw some interest in the free agent market, he’ll have to convince potential suitors that he’s more reliable than the player we saw in 2013. Freeman began last season as the starter in Tampa Bay after holding off rookie Mike Glennon in training camp. That wouldn’t last long, as Freeman ended up being benched in favor of Glennon after just three games. That was just the beginning of the end for Freeman in Tampa Bay, as he had a major falling out with HC Greg Schiano, which stemmed from supposed missed meetings and information getting out about Freeman’s ADHD. He was cut loose in early October and signed to a one-year deal by the Vikings just a few days later. Freeman ended up getting a start in Week Seven, but had an atrocious game against the Giants and didn’t play for the rest of the season. Freeman reportedly was once again late for meetings in Minnesota, which is a terrible sign. In four starts (3 with TB, 1 with Min), Freeman went 63/147 (42.9%) for 761 yards with 2 TDs and 4 INTs. While there’s certainly some talent in the 6’6”, 248-pound Freeman, he’s been too inconsistent over his five-year career and is now at a crossroads. He’s topped 60% in completion percentage just twice and 4000 yards just once. He combined for 39 INTs compared to 42 TDs in 2011-2012, and he hasn’t lived up to the hype of his 1st-round selection back in 2009. With reports of missed meetings and an inability to run the offense in Minnesota, Freeman, who turned 26 in January, has a lot to prove and may not draw a lot of interest, although the Raiders could be a possible destination, since he’s familiar with OC Greg Olson’s offense, as they worked together back in Tampa Bay. We’re not ruling out the possibility that Freeman turns his career around, but there’s probably a 90% chance that he “is what he is” going forward. If so, that’s not good.
Chad Henne (Jac, 29) – The Jaguars have expressed interest in bringing Henne back next season, but obviously they’d only do it at the right price. If things stay as is, the Jags will have a shot at grabbing QBs Johnny Manziel, Blake Bortles, or Teddy Bridgewater with the #3 overall pick in May, and we’d certainly expect them to make a major move at quarterback this off-season. Henne appeared in 15 games last season, completing 305/503 (60.6%) for 3241 yards, 13 TDs, and 14 INTs, ranking him 35th among QBs with 14.8 FPG. Henne did play his best at the end of the season from Week Thirteen on, posting 1117/9/5 for 19.5 FPG in five games. Henne would probably be the more ideal veteran backup QB to a potentially new franchise quarterback than the former 1st-round QB Blaine Gabbert. Just how much demand there is for Henne as a backup QB in the free market could decide the fate of Henne and Gabbert. Henne’s best chance to start next season might be in Jacksonville, especially if the Jaguars hold off until later rounds to draft a quarterback, so it’s a small priority for the Jags to bring him back. He could also draw some interest from teams with a shaky starter at QB like Houston or the NY Jets.
Matt Cassel (Min, 32) – In an interesting move, Cassel voided his $3.7-million contract for 2014 to become a free agent. Apparently, Cassel believes that he can earn a similar salary or a better chance to start somewhere outside of the Viking organization. It is a pretty bad free agent quarterback class, so some team could be desperate enough to pay him. It’s also not inconceivable that Cassel could end up back with the Vikings as the veteran option to a potential rookie quarterback if teams aren’t lining up to sign him. Cassel, who will turn 32 in May, finished out the year as the starter ahead of Christian Ponder and Josh Freeman, and while he really wasn’t any better than average, Cassel was clearly the team’s best starting option all season. He started in six of his nine appearances last season, going 153/254 (60.2%) for 1807 yards, 11 TDs, and 9 INTs, while adding 18/57/1 on the ground to finish at 16.2 FPG. Cassel could be hard-pressed to find a better chance to start on the open market, so he could find his way back to Minnesota when everything shakes out.
Running Backs
Note: Players are listed in a rough order, based on potential fantasy impact/roles.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Knowshon Moreno (Den, 27) – After 3.75 NFL seasons in which he looked like a bust, Moreno seized his opportunity late in 2012 to become the Broncos’ featured back. And despite Denver spending an early pick on Wisconsin star Montee Ball this past April, Moreno opened the 2013 season as the Broncos’ starter and never relinquished the job. Providing value on the ground, through the air, and as a pass protector, Moreno totaled 242/1039/10 rushing (4.3 YPC) and 60/548/3 receiving on 74 targets (81.1%). In PPR leagues, he was a beast, ranking #5 among all RBs, with 18.5 FPG, providing an incredible return on a value pick, as many (including us) thought Ball or even second-year man Ronnie Hillman would be the starter here at some point in 2013. Down the stretch and in the playoffs, Moreno and Ball did split touches, and Ball arguably outplayed Moreno. And the Broncos are fully expected to let Moreno explore the open market, according to the Denver Post. Moreno has said he would prefer to remain in Denver, but any team willing to give Moreno big money will likely outbid the Broncos, who have given off the impression that they feel Moreno is a product of Peyton Manning’s offense.
Ben Tate (Hou, 26) – All signs pointed to Tate exiting Houston after the 2013 season, and while that’s still expected to happen, his stock isn’t soaring heading into free agency. Tate has dealt with significant injuries in each of his four seasons, including last year when he played through four broken ribs before landing on the injured reserve for the final two weeks. He took over the starting job in Week Ten with Arian Foster also landing on the injured reserve, but Tate failed to make a strong impression in his contract year. While we give credit to Tate for playing through such a painful injury, he’s also made it tough to treat him as a lead back since he’s had so much trouble staying on the field. In 14 games (7 starts), Tate rushed 181 times for 771 yards (4.3 YPC) and 4 TDs while adding 34/140 on 49 targets to finish 35th among RBs at 10.7 FPG. Fumbles continued to be a problem with Tate putting the ball on the ground a career-high five times in 2013. When healthy, Tate is a pretty good power back between the tackles, and while he’ll probably start or get significant carries wherever he ends up, we’d expect him to share the touches to keep him fresh and healthy. Tate’s name was linked to the Browns dating back to the regular season, but may also be drawing interest from the Jets, according to ESPN. He’ll turn 26 in August, but has missed eight games over the last three seasons and his entire rookie season, which explains why he has just 421 carries since 2011.
Maurice Jones-Drew (Jac, 29) – Jones-Drew has been one of the cornerstones of the Jaguar franchise since the team drafted him back in 2006, but it looks like he’ll be playing elsewhere in 2014. After eight seasons in Jacksonville, the team is allowing Jones-Drew to test free agency, which should be interesting, as he’ll turn 29 in late March and looking to prove he can still be an important contributor. After being limited to just six games in 2012 thanks to a foot injury, MJD returned to play in all but one game last season, and he did battle through a hamstring issue down the stretch. He rushed 235 times for 803 yards (3.4 YPC) and 5 TDs and added 43/314 on 59 targets, putting him 24th at the position with 12.6 FPG. That’s not a bad year for Jones-Drew, and with not much else on offense, he was often the focus of opposing defenses. While he’s been able to overcome that extra attention in previous seasons, Jones-Drew looks like he might be slowing down a bit, as evidenced by a career-worst 3.4 YPC. No teams have been tied to Jones-Drew and the Jaguars seem intent on letting him walk, so we’ll see if a team is willing to give him a long-term deal considering his age and eight long seasons with over 1800 total carries. If he’s not offered an appealing deal, a return can’t be ruled out because the Jaguars seem to be on the right track with head coach Gus Bradley, and we know from talking to MJD that he’s a huge Bradley fan.
Darren McFadden (Oak, 27) – The story of McFadden’s career has been his lengthy injury history, and his contract year was no different. A hamstring injury, which has been his primary problem during his career, took him out for a stretch of games toward the middle of the season, and an ankle problem sidelined him down the stretch. Those issues limited him to 10 games (7 starts) and opened the door for Rashad Jennings to take over the starting role, which McFadden was unable to reclaim in the second half of the season. He finished this season with just 114 carries for 379 yards (3.3 YPC) and 5 TDs, adding 17 catches for 108 yards (6.4 YPC) on 25 targets (68% catch rate) to average 10.1 FPG. McFadden has now missed at least three games in each of his six seasons and has gone over 200 carries just twice. McFadden has looked dominant at times, when healthy, but that hasn’t happened enough for him to deserve a big contract or long-term commitment from a team in free agency. The Raiders would probably only take him back if the price was right (i.e. “cheap”). Should he leave, the most intriguing suitor is the Bengals, since OC Hue Jackson coached McFadden in 2010-2011, when McFadden went for 1771 yards and 11 TDs on 336 carries (5.2 YPC).BenJarvus Green-Ellis is a potential cut. But word around the league lately is that a McFadden-Jackson reunion probably won’t happen. We shall see.
Rashad Jennings (Oak, 29) – The Raiders will almost certainly part ways with the oft-injured Darren McFadden this off-season, leaving an interesting decision on what to do with Jennings, who turns 29 in March. He looked much better than McFadden in 2013 and had a bounce-back season after a dreadful 2012 campaign with the Jaguars. We’d have to wonder if Jennings early season knee injury in 2012 lingered for most of that season and caused him to average just 2.8 YPC. He looked significantly healthier this past season, carrying 164 times for 733 yards (4.5 YPC) and 6 TDs. Jennings added 36 catches for 292 yards (8.1 YPC) on 47 targets (76.6 catch rate), averaging 11.6 FPG, despite being a backup for a decent chunk of those games. The Raiders could probably keep Jennings around for a reasonable price, and Jennings has indicated that he’d like to return. Another possibility is that they draft a back and go a more unexpected route and give prospect Latavius Murray a chance to start. We asked head coach Dennis Allen about Murray at the combine, and he’s definitely intrigued, but their exposure to him is very limited, and Murray’s rookie season was derailed due to injuries. As weird as it is to think, the Raiders will likely be more motivated to bring Jennings back than Run DMC. Jennings isn’t a flashy player, but he found holes and broke plenty of tackles behind a terrible offensive line. The Raiders won’t be Super Bowl contenders next season, but Jennings could be stopgap in the backfield until they develop another running back, be it Murray or a draft pick.
LeGarrette Blount (NE, 27) - Blount really busted out at the end of the season, culminating in his 4-TD performance against the Colts in the Divisional Round. Not bad for a player the Patriot organization viewed as the #4 running back in training camp. RB Stevan Ridley found his way to the bench by losing four fumbles this season, which is a major shame since he’s the most talented runner for the Patriots. Ridley’s failures opened the door for Blount, and he bided his time and took advantage of his opportunities once Ridley landed in Belichick’s doghouse. As the lead runner in the Patriot offense, Blount posted 431 rushing yards and an amazing 8 TDs in three straight games before the AFC Championship. He finished the regular season with 153 carries for 772 yards (5.0 YPC) and 7 TDs. Blount ran with more power and speed at the end of the season than he previously had shown in his first three NFL seasons with the Buccaneers. It appears as if coaching and their propensity to penalize RBs who don’t hit the hole decisively in New England helped Blount in 2013. Blount, who turned 27 in December, and the Patriots both appear to have interest in working out a deal to keep Blount a Patriot in 2014. However, the Patriots certainly won’t break the bank to keep him around with younger, talented options like Ridley, Shane Vereen, and Brandon Bolden still under contract. The Miami Herald wouldn’t be surprised if the Dolphins made a run at Blount, which may not be the best move for Blount moving from a stable Patriot organization to the dysfunctional Dolphin organization.
Rashard Mendenhall (Ari, 27) – Mendenhall isn’t expected to be a major priority signing for the Cardinals, although it wouldn’t be out of the question for him to return on another short-term deal in a rotational role. The fact of the matter is that, while he can still move pretty well at times, his skill set has deteriorated after years of injuries. Mendenhall’s role was actually pretty constant this year with the Cards. He touched the ball at least 10 times in all 15 games he appeared in this season, and in 14 of the 15 he had 10 or more carries. He converted 8 of his 11 carries inside the five into TDs (72.7%), the highest percentage of any of the 21 RBs with 10 or more goal-line opportunities. But the problem with Mendenhall is he had about zero tangible upside. Rookie Andre Ellington was simply far more productive on a per-touch basis – a ridiculous 6.56 YPT in comparison to Mendenhall’s 3.48 – and he provided more upside for fantasy players. Head coach Bruce Arians told us at the NFL Combine that Ellington has already added 10 pounds of muscle, and his arrow is pointing up. Should Mendenhall not return we could see rising second-year player Stepfan Taylor take his “plodder” role. It doesn’t seem as Mendenhall’s role is one the Cardinals need to spend big money trying to fill, but he isn’t likely to command much money, either. Mendenhall also has interests other than football, and is a mercurial guy in general, so it wouldn’t be a shock if he actually called it a career right now.
Donald Brown (Ind, 27) - Brown turned out to be the effective running back for the Colts in 2013, which was a bit of a surprise considering Trent Richardson, Vick Ballard, and Ahmad Bradshaw were all in the mix. Brown, who will turn 27 in April, was clearly quicker and more decisive than Trent Richardson and gave the Colts some juice, thanks to his speed. At times this past year he looked like Barry Sanders compared to Richardson. Brown played every game, rushing 102 times for 537 yards (5.3 YPC) and 6 TDs, while adding 27/214/2 on 35 targets (77.1% catch rate), which was good for 9.4 FPG (41st among RBs). RB Ahmad Bradshaw likely won’t be back, and Brown’s status may be determined by Vick Ballard’s recovery, which he says will have him ready by OTAs. The Colts certainly won’t break the bank to bring back Brown next season, and he could see the potential logjam and look elsewhere for more guaranteed playing time. The Colts clearly have to stick with T-Rich next season and hope that he gets his career on track in 2014, and they were also high on Ballard entering the year, so Brown will likely be back only if there is no market for him.
Andre Brown (NYG, 28) – Brown’s season got off to a miserable start when he broke his leg in a meaningless preseason game. He eventually came off the short-term IR to play in the final eight games of the season, carrying for 139/492/3 (3.5 YPC) and adding 20/103 on 29 targets (68.9%) receiving. He ranked 27th in a PPR, with 12.2 FPG over that span. Brown, 27, lost three fumbles and suffered a concussion. He did rush for more than 100 yards in two of his first three games, but he finished the season with a sputter, rushing for under 20 yards in two of his final three games. The Giants’ wretched offensive line certainly didn’t help Brown down the stretch. It looks like the Giants could look to bring back Brown, especially with RB David Wilson’s future up in the air, but the Giants will likely bring in at least one other back to compete with Brown for the starting job. Brown has already said that he wants to come back next season, and he’s does bring some value on third downs and in short yardage, so he could carve out a role even if he isn’t the lead back.The New Giants have expressed an interest in bringing Brown back, but nothing is imminent.
James Starks (GB, 28) – Starks’ career has been slowed by injuries, and he couldn’t avoid partially tearing his MCL and missing three games last season. However, Starks tied a career-high by playing in 13 games last season, and he showed he could be an effective – if not explosive at times, believe it or not – backup to RB Eddie Lacy. Still, he’s a free agent this off-season, and the Packers could elect to go with Johnathan Franklin and DuJuan Harris as backups. Starks finished with 89 carries for 493 yards (5.5 YPC) and 3 TDs, and he added 10 catches for 89 yards and 1 TD. He picked up 54% of his yards after contact, so he can be a bruising runner like Lacy. Starks, who turned 28 in February, played well this season, but they really don’t need to bring him back, so he’d have to come back at an excellent price. The Packers already have more talented player like Lacy, Franklin, and Harris in the mix. Starks’ market could be limited because of his injury history, so the Packers could potentially get him back for cheap. He’ll likely chase any kind of pay raise that he can get because of his sketchy injury history, but could also re-sign with the Packers if he is not able to find a better situation.
Ahmad Bradshaw (Ind, 28) - Bradshaw's injury-riddled career continued in 2013, as foot problems have been a major nag for the seventh-year RB. Bradshaw also had another issue last season, as he played in just three games before he finished the year on the IR with a neck injury that needed surgery. Overall, he totaled with 41 carries for 182 yards and 2 TDs and 7 catches for 42 yards. Bradshaw certainly has enough game to get it done when he's on the field, but his durability issues far outweigh his talent at this point in his career. He's unlikely to be back with Colts next season because the team has younger options in Trent Richardson and Vick Ballard already under contract. Bradshaw will have to prove his durability no matter where he lands this off-season, so he won't be handed guaranteed money or a starting job. Believe it or not, Giant GM Jerry Reese indicated to us at the combine that he wouldn’t be closed to the idea of bringing Bradshaw back, but that would have to be a low, incentive-laden deal.
Jonathan Dwyer (Pit, 25) – Dwyer was released and cleared waivers this past September 1st, but the injury to Le’Veon Bell prompted the team to bring him back. There were some rumblings about a lack of effort from Dwyer previous to his release, but he was pretty solid when he played in 2013. Dwyer finished the year second in rushing with 49/197 (4.0 YPC), but he’s a free agent along with RB Felix Jones, who finished the year with 48/184 (3.8 YPC). Dwyer could be back next season if the price is right, but he won’t have a guaranteed spot and he’ll be in competition for playing time. And obviously, Bell is the clear starter.
LaRod Stephens-Howling (Pit, 27) – The Steelers had some big plans for Stephens-Howling as a return man and a change-of-pace RB in 2013, but he got cut down in the first game of the year to a torn right ACL. The Steelers brought Stephens-Howling in to give them some speed out of the backfield, but it obviously never materialized. The Steelers could take a look at Stephens-Howling again as a potential scat-back behind starter Le’Veon Bell, as long as LSH hasn’t lost any elusiveness because of his knee injury. The Steelers don’t have any other RBs under contract for 2014, as Jonathan Dwyer and Felix Jones are also free agents. OC Todd Haley loves to work with backs like Stephens-Howling, so as long as LSH is healthy, he could get another chance with his hometown team.
Toby Gerhart (Min, 27) – Gerhart has spent the first four years of his career as the primary backup to Adrian Peterson in Minnesota, but he looks to be moving on with the team not expected to bring him back. With Peterson carrying the bulk of the workload and playing through multiple injuries, Gerhart has topped 100 carries just once, which came in 2011 when Peterson went down with a torn ACL. In 2013, Gerhart was limited to 14 games by a hamstring injury and had just 36/283/2 on the ground (7.9 YPC), while adding 13/88 on 19 targets, good for just 4.4 FPG. Obviously, Gerhart doesn’t have anywhere near the talent Peterson does and isn’t dynamic, but he can handle a starter’s share of the carries on a short-term basis if needed. He’s probably best off in a similar role to the one he played in Minnesota and would likely not see a significant jump in touches wherever he ends up in 2014. The team has also tendered RFA Matt Asiata, all but assuring that Gerhart won’t be back.
Peyton Hillis (NYG, 27) – Hillis started the season with the Buccaneers, but was cut toward the end of September after appearing in just one game without any touches. He was signed by the Giants in mid-October, as they desperately needed help at the RB position with multiple injuries. He ended up appearing in 7 games (1 start), rushing for 247 yards and 2 TDs on 73 carries (3.4 YPC) and added 13/96 through the air. Hillis missed the last two games of the season with a concussion and likely won’t draw a lot of interest in the free agent market. He’s versatile, but he’s a plodding runner and the power he ran with during his time with the Browns isn’t much of a factor now. The 28-year-old won’t be much of a factor if he lands with a team in 2014.
8 more FA RBs are covered online here
Restricted Free Agents
Note: Exclusive-rights free agents are designated as such here.
Joique Bell (Det, 28) – As frustrating as he was for fantasy, Bell was a hugely important piece of the Lions’ offense last year, and should remain active in the attack under new OC Joe Lombardi, who is expected to bring the Saints’ offense up North. Overall, Bell ranked #16 among RBs with at least five appearances, with 13.8 FPG in a PPR league. By that number, Bell was an every-week #2 RB, one you put in your lineup and didn’t worry about. But we need to look a little bit deeper. Bell topped 20 FP in a PPR league on five separate occasions, including both times Bush missed games (Week Three and Week Fourteen). But he also had a whopping eight games of fewer than 10 FP in a PPR league. Regardless, he is expected to be a priority of the Lions this off-season. Bell told the Lions’ official website last month that he expects the Lions to show a commitment to him in the form of a multi-year contract, but if that offer doesn’t come, expect an expensive RFA tender for Bell (28 in August). He’s almost certainly not going anywhere, especially given the fumbling/injury problems of Reggie Bush.
Jordan Todman (Jac, 24, exclusive-rights free agent) – Todman looked like a viable backup to RB Maurice Jones-Drew last season, and he had a nice showing as the starter in Week Fifteen against the Bills, with 25/109. He finished the year with 75 carries for 256 yards (3.4 YPC) and 2 TDs, and he added 14 catches for 116 yards (8.3 YPC) and 1 TD on 25 targets (56% catch rate). The Jags certainly won’t hand the starting job to Todman next season if MJD walks this off-season, but Todman could be in the mix to compete for the starting job next training camp, depending on what direction the team decides to go with their backfield. Todman, who turned 24 in February, is likely best suited to be a change-of-pace back rather than a featured back, so the Jags are likely to bring in a lead-back type this off-season. But in Jacksonville these days they want to be more dynamic on offense, and Todman does have some juice and versatility.
Matt Asiata (Min, 26, exclusive-rights free agent) – When both Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart missed time at the end of the season, Asiata was called into action for a couple of starts and he put up big numbers, rushing for 30/51/3 in Week Fifteen and 14/115 in Week Seventeen. Gerhart is headed toward free agency, so it’s looking like Asiata (who is 26) will compete for a backup role. Gerhart is not expected to be brought back. The Vikings – who have tendered this ERFA already – aren’t likely to just hand the backup role Asiata, as they’ll likely bring in some competition, but Asiata acquitted himself well in his two starts at the end of the year. He’s a one-speed power runner with very little juice, but his size and versatility make intriguing in the event that he’s afforded volume.
Wide Receivers
Note: Players are listed in a rough order, based on potential fantasy impact/roles.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Eric Decker (Den, 27) – If Decker’s recent quotes are to be taken at face value, he clearly believes he’s among the elite receivers in the NFL. In an interview with our friends at SiriusXM NFL Radio, he said that he was going to put family first and “do what is best” for them. And the rumblings have already started that Decker could well have several teams bidding for his services, which could get him paid like a #1. We love Decker and would prefer he re-sign in Denver, but it is fair to be concerned about a potential major drop-off going from Peyton Manning to the QB on whichever team throws a monster contract at him. And what’s more, the Broncos seem willing to let him walk rather than match a monster offer, given the great depth at the WR position in this year’s NFL Draft, and the fact that Demaryius Thomas and Julius Thomas are entering their contract years. Decker is in the interesting spot of being one of the few true difference-makers at a skill position on the open market this year, but also one who looks primed to get overpaid. Obviously, his final landing spot will go a long way toward determining his 2014 fantasy value. Two teams that could be very interested in Decker are the Colts and Redskins, and his value would be solid in either locale.
Golden Tate (Sea, 26) – Tate has never been a dominating receiver, but his numbers have improved in each of his four seasons with the Seahawks, and that has to be a big reason why GM John Schneider told ESPN that re-signing Tate was a “big priority.” Tate said last week that he’d be “very willing” to take a hometown discount, so there’s clearly interest on both sides (although Tate has since backed off the discount talks). Tate led the Seahawks in receiving last season, but he didn’t make huge strides into becoming a consistent force. He finished with 64 catches for 898 yards (14.0 YPC) and 5 TDs on 98 targets (65.3% catch rate), ranking 30th among WRs with 11.7 FPG. The team really didn’t have a go-to guy, with WR Sidney Rice going down with a torn ACL after eight games (and likely cut this year) and WR Percy Harvin playing just one regular season game due to a hip issue that was a problem all year. Tate’s improving numbers and big-play ability could be reason enough to keep him around, although the decision could be tied to what the team decides to do with RFA WR Doug Baldwin. This looks like a situation where the two sides have enough interest in each other to find a middle ground, but if that’s not the case, Tate should draw some interest if he ends up testing the market. Seattle might be a run-first offense, but they aren’t very deep at WR, as Rice has already been cut and other than Harvin, who is an injury risk, Jermaine Kearse is the only other player on the roster with legitimate contributions. The New York Jets could pursue Tate this offseason, as GM John Idzik is familiar with Tate from his time with the Seahawks.
Hakeem Nicks (NYG, 26) – It was a hell of a “contract year” for Nicks in 2013, huh? Perhaps single-handedly destroying the notion that looming free agency can motivate a player to incredible production, Nicks sleepwalked through his contract year. In 15 games, Nicks hauled in 56 passes for 896 yards on 98 targets (16.0 YPC, 57.1%). However, he didn’t score a TD, and as a result ranked 58th among WRs with 9.7 FPG (behind Marlon Brown, Jerricho Cotchery, and Tavon Austin). Nicks had three 100-yard performances, but six games under 50 yards. Coincidentally, it wasn’t injuries this time for Nicks – he missed only one game with an ab injury, tying a career-high in games played. Instead, he looked lethargic, and Giant GM Jerry Reese suggested he lacked focus. We do wonder if Nicks’ numerous lower-body injuries have taken a toll on him, but if he’s going to re-sign with the Giants, it now looks like it’ll have to be on a “prove-it” deal. He has the support of teammate Victor Cruz, but if Nicks is going to be chasing money, it doesn’t look like the Giants will be a fit. And if someone misguidedly offers him a big contract, he should take it in an instant. Nicks’ listless 2013 season and history of injuries don’t exactly make us optimistic for the future. Nicks has recently changed agents, and the Patriots might reportedly have interest in him. Carolina would be a logical landing spot due to their need and Nicks’ ties to the state. Nicks would also be an interesting one-year signing by the Broncos, who are poised to lose Decker.
James Jones (GB, 30) – With Jones entering a contract season, the last thing he needed was a lengthy absence by QB Aaron Rodgers. Unfortunately, Rodgers missed five games in the second half of the season with a broken collarbone, and the Packers used three different QBs to replace him. Before Rodgers went down, Jones had two 100-yard games in the first four weeks, but he was never quite the same after a knee injury in Week Five (PCL injuries can be nasty for WRs even if they’re able to play on them). He missed nearly three games to the injury and never hit 100 yards in a game again. Jones also played through broken ribs at the end of the season after suffering the injury in Week Sixteen. We knew it would be difficult for him to even come close to his 14 TD catches from 2012, but he managed only 3 TDs this season. He finished with 59 catches for 817 yards (13.8 YPC) and 3 TDs on 92 targets (64.1% catch rate) for 11.3 FPG. Jones will turn 30 this March and the Packers aren’t likely to pay him the most money, so Jones may have played his last snap with the Packers. Of course, he did give them a hometown discount a few years ago, so he can’t be ruled out from returning. However, the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported the Packers were expected to let Jones walk, despite his interest in wanting to return in 2014. Extensions for WRs Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb look like bigger priorities, and the team still has Jarrett Boykin, who did a fine job with Cobb out of the lineup. Jones has been connected to the Giants, as they have former Packer QB coach Ben McAdoo as their new OC and have a potential need at WR, and he’s from California and he would make sense for the Chargers. But given his likely affordable price tag and solid play, he’d make sense for a number of teams.
Julian Edelman (NE, 29) – With lots of uncertainty surrounding the Patriot receiving corps coming into 2013, the focus fell on new WR Danny Amendola as the replacement for WR Wes Welker. Amendola had yet another injury take him out early, and with TE Rob Gronkowski still recovering from back and forearm issues, Edelman became an active target. Amendola and Gronkowski would eventually return, but both players went down again, so Edelman remained very busy, and by the end of the season, he had turned in his best numbers in a contract year. Edelman destroyed his previous career marks, recording 105 catches for 1056 yards (10.1 YPC) and 6 TDs on 149 targets (70.1% catch rate), ranking 15th among WRs with 15.5 FPG. Edelman closed out the year on fire, ranking 2nd behind Brown WR Josh Gordon in the final six weeks of the season, hauling in 53/556/4 for 22.1 FPG. Edelman played above and beyond even the wildest expectations for him this season, as he clearly had more chemistry out of the slot with Tom Brady than Amendola ever had. With Amendola struggling to stay on the field and Gronkowski’s status up in the air after a torn ACL, Edelman certainly has leverage in any negotiations with the Patriots, but he should draw plenty of interest if he tests the market. However, we should note Edelman totaled 69/714/4 in four seasons prior to 2013, so it’s fair to wonder how much of his huge performance was a result of the increased role out of necessity for the Patriots and how much of it was Edelman’s talent. While he’s never played as big of a role as he did this past season, it was the first time Edelman appeared in all 16 games, and he’s battled various injuries in the past. Heck the club drug their feet re-signing him last off-season when Edelman was a RFA, and that was likely injury-related because he wasn’t 100% until the summer. With Amendola signing a new contract last year and Gronkowski getting paid big money, the Patriots might not be able to match a strong offer from another team, and as of late-February, Edelman and the team hadn’t started negotiations, according to the Boston Globe. The questions: How much do the Patriots value Edelman, and will he receive strong offers based on one big season following four mostly quiet years?
Emmanuel Sanders (Pit, 27) – Sanders nearly left the Steelers last off-season as a restricted free agent before Pittsburgh matched the Patriots offer. It sure looks like Sanders won’t be a Steeler heading into 2014 season, as he enters the off-season as an unrestricted free agent. Sanders had a solid season stepping into the #2 role, but he did have a number of key drops. Sanders hauled in 67/732/6 (10.9 YPC) on 11 targets (60.4% catch rate), finishing 35th among WRs with 11.2 FPG. The Steelers nearly lost Sanders as a restricted free agent last season, and the two sides couldn’t come together on a long-term deal. The Steelers don’t have a lot of wiggle room with the cap, so Sanders could fetch more than what the Steelers can pay him. They also believe that 3rd-round WR Markus Wheaton can fill the void with increased playing time. Sanders, who will turn 27 in March, recently parted ways with his agent, so he’s clearly getting ready to hit the open market. Sanders is believed to be on the radar for teams like the Patriots, Jets, and Chiefs, and he’s likely to have one of the more active markets among wide receivers.
Kenny Britt (Ten, 25) – Britt’s tenure in Tennessee has definitely come to a close, and it ended on a very quiet note. He missed some time early last season with a rib fracture, but with the way the Titans treated him, we doubt a healthy Britt would have made much of an impact. He openly complained about his treatment early on and didn’t think he got a “fair shake” after being inactive for three of the final four games. While he was singled out for his issues with drops and penalties, Britt didn’t have much good will built up, thanks to multiple off-field issues in his five years with the team. He finished the year with just 11 catches for 96 yards (8.7 YPC) on 35 targets (31.4% catch rate). He certainly burned his fair share of bridges during his five years in Tennessee, so the franchise will be more than happy to let him walk. As our own Adam Caplan reported, Britt is probably looking at a short-term deal. Britt has looked like a big-time #1 WR in the past, but injury issues, specifically with his knees, and the off-field problems will probably limit his options in free agency. Of course, according to Britt, he will be a team’s #1 WR in 2014. That’s not going to be easy for him to do, though.
Brandon LaFell (Car, 27) – LaFell got plenty of opportunities to establish himself as a legitimate #2 option opposite the aging Steve Smith, but it never really happened for him. Now the Panthers could be ready to move on and look elsewhere for an outside receiver. LaFell played 15 games and racked up 49/627/5 (12.8 YPC) on 79 targets (62% catch rate), which was good for just 9.5 FPG (t-59th). LaFell, 27, is a free agent along with fellow Panthers Ted Ginn and Domenik Hixon, and Ginn probably has the most value for the franchise going forward as a deep threat and returner. The Panthers need to severely upgrade at wide receiver next season, and head coach Ron Rivera said last week at the combine that they are looking to bring in a “dynamic” receiver this year, which is not really LaFell, so he might not factor into the Panthers’ plans going forward. Some team might be desperate enough to give him a chance as a #2 WR, but he’s better off as a depth player. On the plus side, the retirement of LT Jordan Gross could help his chances of returning, and the head coach and GM didn’t exactly sound encouraged when talking about veteran Steve Smith last week.
Andre Roberts (Ari, 26) – Roberts had a bit of a stunning fall back to grace last season, despite playing with a true NFL quarterback in Carson Palmer. Roberts actually led the Cards in FPG in 2012, but he fell way off in 2013. In 16 games, he posted only 43/471/2 receiving on 76 targets (11.0 YPC, 56.6%), and his 6.4 FPG ranked him 88th at the position. A slot receiver who lost snaps because of the Cards’ tendency to go 2-TE to help out the offensive line, Roberts had only three games of more than 10 FP in a PPR and was Waiver Wire fodder all year. HC Bruce Arians had previously gotten production out of former #3 WRs Antonio Brown and T.Y. Hilton in his last two stops, but he rarely tried to get Roberts involved, electing to play TE Rob Housler in the slot at times. The Cards have some money problems, so he’ll have to come back at the right price to stick around. His lack of usage last season could deter him from coming back to the Cardinals, and Roberts could have some market interest, since he can play both inside and outside.
Dexter McCluster (KC, 26) – McCluster proved his worth for the Chiefs last season with his work as a punt returner, but he failed to make any major contributions as a receiver. McCluster, 25, emerged as the better fantasy option playing out of the slot over Chief #2 WR Donnie Avery, but no Chief WR really stood out for fantasy purposes. McCluster caught 53 passes for 512 yards (9.7 YPC) and 2 TDs on 82 targets (64.6% catch rate) for 7.8 FPG. HC Andy Reid finally started to get McCluster a little more involved later in the season, which helped the fourth-year pro to post career-best numbers. The Chiefs could push to keep him around because of how valuable he is to the team’s special teams unit. However, the Chiefs signed CFL WR Weston Dressler at the end of January, who stands at 5’8” and works as a slot receiver and as a punt returner. Sound familiar? It sure looks like the Chiefs may have already found a (cheaper) replacement for McCluster next season, so he could be the top returner/slot receiver on the market.
Jerricho Cotchery (Pit, 32) – Cotchery became an absolute force for the Steelers in the red zone last season, likely earning him a return to the Steel City. Cotchery really made the most of his targets last season, as he became a favorite of QB Ben Roethlisberger in the red zone. He scored a whopping 10 TDs on 22 red-zone targets, finishing the year with 46/607/10 (13.2 YPC) on 76 targets (60.5% catch rate). Cotchery, 31, stole WRPlaxico Burress’ potential role in the end zone last year, as Plax tore his rotator cuff before the season even started. Cotchery is a solid #3 WR and an excellent fit out of the slot for the Steelers, and he gives them some size they need. Pittsburgh will make signing Cotchery a priority since they’re unlikely to bring back WR Emmanuel Sanders.
Sidney Rice (Sea. 28) – Rice’s career has been marred by injuries and 2013 was no different. After just eight games, Rice suffered a torn ACL and was cut by the Seahawks in late-February to create $7.3 million in cap space. The team told NFL Network they’ve made no determination on Rice’s future, which leaves the door open for a return. In eight games, Rice had 15/231/3 on 35 targets. In addition to knee problems, Rice has dealt with concussion and shoulder issues in his time with the Seahawks, which has caused him to miss 15 games in three seasons. Rice has played 16 games just twice in his seven-year career and will now have to battle back from yet another major injury, even though Seahawk HC Pete Carroll said Rice was ahead of his recovery in early-February. Rice’s value as a free agent will likely depend on where he is in his rehab and while he’ll be just 28 in September, his lengthy injury history means he should be expecting a prove-it deal wherever he ends up in 2014.
Ted Ginn (Car, 29) – Ginn had to be considered a surprise contributor to the Panthers in 2013. After catching a total of 33 balls in three seasons with the 49ers, Ginn revitalized (or just plain vitalized) his career, with 36/556/5 receiving for the Panthers this past season. Ginn also contributed on special teams, so it’s entirely possible he’s a bigger priority for the Panthers to retain than either Brandon LaFell or Domenik Hixon. Coach Ron Rivera said at the NFL Combine that the Panthers need to get more dynamic at the receiver position, which has been true for about five years now (and potentially longer), especially now that Steve Smith is really dropping off. But Ginn had a strong year when the Panthers needed him to step up, and he shouldn’t be too expensive to retain.
Jacoby Jones (Bal, 30) – Jones is a return man and a vertical threat at this point in his career and nothing more, even though the Ravens tried to get more out of him last season as a #2 WR. He even saw a lot of single coverage at times with WR Torrey Smith drawing most of the attention. Jones, 29, did have part of his season derailed by a MCL sprain, which ended up limiting him to 12 games. Jones posted 37/455/2 (8.5 YPC) on 62 targets (59.7% catch rate) and scored just 7.9 FPG. Rookie WR Marlon Brown was already a better option on the outside and the Ravens could look to upgrade at the position through the draft. New OC Gary Kubiak cut Jones back in 2012 while with the Texans, but Kubiak called Jones one of his “children” because he watched him grow as a player. Still, the Ravens are looking to pay him special teams money and not #2/3 WR money this off-season, so Jones will have to decide if he wants to be paid like a receiver or not.
Jerome Simpson (Min, 28) – Simpson isn’t exactly an attractive free agent after pleading guilty to careless driving and a DUI in January, resulting from an arrest last November. The NFL already suspended Simpson three games to start the 2012 season, so it’s very likely he’ll miss additional time in 2014. Simpson opened the season as a starter, but other than flashing here and there, he was hardly consistent, which pretty much sums up his career. Simpson finished with 48/726/1 (15.1 YPC) on 100 targets (48% catch rate) and just 7.9 FPG. He finally gave way to rookie WR Cordarrelle Patterson down the stretch, which should’ve happened much sooner. Simpson, who turned 28 in February, could fit in well with new OC Norv Turner’s offense as a vertical threat, but the Viking will need to decide how much they want to pay for a player who is unlikely to play 16 games. Simpson will be a huge risk for any team, so he’s unlikely to see anything more than one-year offers. The Vikings are reportedly interested in bringing him back, though.
Damian Williams (Ten, 26) – Williams has been nothing more than a depth option for the Titans in his four years with the team and is coming off his worst season. Williams was limited to 10 games, mostly thanks to a quad injury, and posted just 15/178 on 22 targets. He was deactivated in Week Fifteen for violating team rules (he’s had some “Baby Momma Drama”), but did return to play the final two games. Williams has never really gotten a chance to play outside of 2011 when Kenny Britt went down early in the season, so he could look for his chance outside of Tennessee. Williams can play inside or outside and will be just 26 when the season begins, so he could find a new home thanks to his versatility and size (6’1”, 193).
Andre Caldwell (Den, 29) – Caldwell was typically the forgotten man in Denver’s receiving corps behind Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker, and Julius Thomas. He wound up playing every game and posted 16/200/3 on 29 targets. He provided a solid depth option, but never had a consistent role in the offense, as you might expect with all of that talent around him. Caldwell’s now spent six seasons between the Bengals and Broncos and will turn 29 in April. He won’t draw a lot of interest, but does have some value because he’s a contributor on special teams. The Broncos have a bigger priority with Decker also hitting the free agent market, so Caldwell might be waiting to find a home.
Tiquan Underwood (TB, 27) – Underwood proved himself to be a viable deep threat this past season, hauling in 24/440/4 on 46 targets(18.3 YPC). His line was buoyed by a couple big games in Weeks Twelve and Seventeen, but we also have to remember that the Bucs really put a cap on their passing game over the second half of the season. As it stands, Underwood has enough skill to stick with the Bucs or another team as a depth receiver, but that seems to be his upside. The Bucs need to upgrade at WR this year, with Mike Williams coming off a season-ending injury, but it’s possible Underwood is part of that strengthening, just in a smaller role.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (Ind, 27) – Heyward-Bey’s first season in Indianapolis was a disappointing one, although that shouldn’t be a big surprise, considering he’s been a bust as a former first-round pick of the Raiders. Heyward-Bey had a terrible season, catching 29 of 64 targets (45.3% catch rate) for 309 yards and a TD in 13 games, putting him at 5.3 FPG. Heyward-Bey had plenty of chances to step up with a weak receiving corps, especially with WR Reggie Wayne out with a torn ACL, but he never did, so it’s fair to wonder if it will ever happen for Heyward-Bey. He continues to struggle with drops and battling a hamstring injury in the playoffs. The Colts aren’t expected to bring him back, and even though he’ll be just 28 when the season starts, it’s hard to see DHB drawing a lot of interest in free agency. It’s a very deep WR class in this year’s draft, which won’t help DHB.
Jacoby Ford (Oak, 27) – Ford missed all of the 2012 season with a foot injury and returned in 2013 to have his worst year with free agency on the horizon. In 14 games, Ford posted 13/99 on 23 targets and was a healthy scratch for the last two weeks of the season. The team desperately needed WR help at times in 2013 due to injuries, and Ford barely registered a blip on the radar, so his career is in peril. He did very little as a return man and has been a major disappointment in his four seasons with the Raiders. Ford isn’t expected back and will have to be a reclamation project for a new team with the hope he can be a big-play option and/or returner, since he’s always had good speed. Ford’s numbers have dropped each season, so he’ll have plenty to prove in 2014.
15 more FA WRs are covered online here
Restricted Free Agents
Note: Exclusive-rights free agents are designated as such here
Andrew Hawkins (Cin, 28) – Hawkins opened the 2013 season on the IR, thanks to an ankle injury and would later battle hamstring issues that limited him to just 12/199 in eight games. In our opinion, the Bengals underutilized the speedy Hawkins. Hawkins had only 12 catches in eight games, for 199 yards. However, his speed is a potential difference-making asset if used correctly. There may not be enough footballs to go around in Cincinnati with guys like A.J. Green, Marvin Jones, Mohammed Sanu, and even Tyler Eifert in front of Hawkins in the pecking order. Plus, the Bengals may choose to run it a little more with Hue Jackson taking over as the OC. Hawkins this week received the lowest tender possible, which means the team would receive no compensation if Hawkins signed with another team because he was all undrafted player. That means a team looking for a speedy and dynamic slot receiver can likely get Hawkins cheaply, so he looks like a player whose value is on the rise.
Doug Baldwin (Sea, 26) – Baldwin’s had an interesting three years with the Seahawks. He signed as a UDFA in 2011 and was one of the surprises as a rookie, posting 51/788/4. For whatever reason, the Seahawks didn’t feel the need to get him involved as much in 2012, so he ended up with just 29/366/3. Thanks to the injuries suffered by WRs Sidney Rice and Percy Harvin, Baldwin’s role increased last year and he ended up being a solid contributor. Baldwin finished the year with 50 catches for 778 yards (15.6 YPC) and 5 TDs on 72 targets (69.4% catch rate) for 10.6 FPG. Baldwin became the #1 wide receiver in the second half of the year, racking up 26/398/4 in Weeks Nine through Fifteen, and he played well in the postseason, with 13/202 in three games. With Rice already cut and WR Golden Tate also hitting free agency, Baldwin should return to the team on an RFA tender, especially since they don’t have a lot of depth with Jermaine Kearse and Harvin being the only two WRs with legitimate contributions. Baldwin has proven to be a reliable option for the Seahawks and while he might not put up big numbers in their run-first offense, he’s good enough to play on every down and likely won’t cost the team that much.
Joe Morgan (NO, 26) – Morgan missed the entire 2013 season with a torn ACL and torn meniscus he suffered last August and enters this off-season as an RFA. According to the Times-Picayune, Morgan was told he’d need a year to recover and rehab, so the team may decide to non-tender him and then try to bring him back on a cheaper deal as he tries to make a comeback. Morgan flashed some speed as a big-play threat back in 2012, posting 10/379/3 in 14 games, but the latest injuries may set him back significantly. If the Saints don’t keep him around, Morgan may not find a home until he proves he’s healthy.
Mike Brown (Jac, 25) – Brown was a bit of a surprise contributor for the Jaguars in 2013 after not recording a catch as a rookie in 2012. Brown likely earned himself a chance as a backup next season, posting 32/446/2 (13.9 YPC) on 55 targets (58.2% catch rate) in 11 games and six starts. With Justin Blackmon’s status in question after another suspension and Brown doing a good job with increased opportunities last season, he’ll likely return to the Jaguars despite his ERFA status. The Jaguars certainly seemed to be happy with his performance, as he found his way into the starting lineup for the last four games of the regular season. As a former college QB, Brown is taking to the WR position quite well and on a team with a lack of depth, he should remain in the mix in 2014.
Kris Durham (Det, 26, exclusive-rights free agent) – Durham played a much bigger role than anticipated this season after WR Nate Burleson and Ryan Broyles went down with injuries. Durham caught 38 passes for 490 yards and 2 TDs, but he did drop 6 passes and had the 3rd-worst catch rate among WRs at 45.8%, just ahead of Greg Little and Chris Givens. Durham, who will turn 26 in March, only has a job at this point because of his 6’6” frame because he doesn’t bring much else to the table. The Lions desperately need to upgrade at wide receiver this off-season, so Durham should get pushed down the depth chart – but he’s at least expected to be brought back for 2014.
Lestar Jean (Hou, 26) – Jean is a restricted free agent but is in danger of not receiving a tender under Bill O’Brien and the new Texans’ coaching staff. Jean is a big, talented receiver, but he’s too often injured, and the Texans have been rewarded with only 10 catches for their investment in him over three seasons. If he gets a tender from the Texans, it will be a cheap one, and if not, he should draw at least some interest elsewhere because of his long stride and his size.
4 more FA WRs (Restricted) are covered online here
Tight Ends
Note: Players are listed in a rough order, based on potential fantasy impact/roles.
Franchise Players
Jimmy Graham (NO, 27) – While we don’t see Graham leaving the Saints this off-season, the two sides are headed toward an interesting battle. Graham dominates from any spot on the field as a receiver – in tight, in the slot, or out wide – and his versatility is providing a major hurdle in contract talks. As such, the two sides aren’t close on an extension, and he received the Saints’ franchise tag. Graham’s representatives are insistent that he should be tagged at the more expensive WR slot instead of the TE slot. Given how often Graham splits out in the slot and wide (67% of the time, according to The Times-Picayune), it’s a very fair argument to be made. Of course, the Saints will make the counterargument that modern tight ends have more versatile roles than ever before. Graham appears ready to file a grievance, so the battle between the two sides could just be getting started. The exclusive rights franchise tag for a tight end would be around $6.8 million and around $11.6 million for a wide receiver, which is obviously a huge difference in pay. Graham, 27, played in 16 games, despite some nagging foot problems, and he posted 86/1215/16 on 142 targets (14.1 YPC, 58.9%). He easily led all TEs, with 19.0 FPG, a number that would have ranked him 6th amongst WRs. Graham had TDs in 11 different games, multiple TDs in five different games, 100 yards receiving in six different games, and 5 or more catches in 10 different games. He turned 11 of his 26 red-zone targets into TDs, including 3 of his 7 targets inside the five. As a franchise player, Graham would cost any team signing him to a contract other than the Saints two first-round picks. He’s one of the rare players with whom you can argue it’s worth it. Graham is that special at what he does. Again, we don’t expect Graham to be playing anywhere else next season, but his potential fight over his position classification could have ramifications for free agent tight ends in the future.
Unrestricted Free Agents
Jermichael Finley (GB, 27) – Finley was on pace for a potential career year in 2013 before a severe neck injury ended his season in Week Seven. He had 25 catches for 300 yards (12.0 YPC) and 3 TDs on 34 targets (73.5% catch rate) for 12.2 FPG, but he still had 2 drops on only 34 attempts. The Packers have to have major concerns about Finley after his cervical fusion, but he does seem intent on returning to the NFL next season and all the news on his recovery has been positive. We’ll see if Finley can pass physicals to allow him to play again, and the injury could keep him from getting much guaranteed money, which could open the door for his return. However, according to the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, Finley is hardly a lock to return to the Packers. They also reported that Finley should be healed in 4-8 weeks, and his surgeon said there’s a “99.9% chance” Finley will make a full recovery. HC Mike McCarthy left the door open, noting that Finley’s injury is different than the one suffered by S Nick Collins, which was severe enough for the team to not bring him back. McCarthy told ESPN, “I’m very open and optimistic about Jermichael coming back.” Finley hasn’t fully lived up to expectations in his six seasons, but he’ll turn just 27 in March and would draw interest if he’s cleared to play. Keep in mind the Packers don’t have a developmental TE they really like behind Finley. If Green Bay decides to go another direction – like if they think North Carolina’s Eric Ebron will be there for them at 21 – there’s reportedly a market forming for Finley and he will get offers from other teams (just not long-term, big money offers).
Garrett Graham (Hou, 27) – Starting TE Owen Daniels went down with a broken leg last season, opening the door for Graham to get some extended playing time. Graham, 27, played in 13 games and posted decent numbers, going for 49/545/5 on 88 targets (55.7%). Griffin ended the year with a hamstring injury and missed the final three games of the season. He averaged 10.3 FPG and was a half-decent fantasy fill-in guy if you needed him (although 3 of his 5 TDs came in games in which Daniels was active). With Graham headed to free agency, it’ll be interesting to see if the Texans are willing to hand a bigger role to rookie Ryan Griffin, a talented player who had 19/244/1 receiving on 28 targets (67.9%). Tight ends have had plenty of success in new HC Bill O’Brien’s offenses in the past, so it’s an ideal spot to play. The Texans do like Graham a lot, but they can’t spend too much money to keep him around, especially with Griffin showing that he’s capable at the end of last year. The Texans would likely have to cut Daniels to keep Graham around next season, which is a possibility with Daniels’ injuries starting to pile up. If Graham hits the open market, he should get interest from any club looking for a younger and athletic TE like the Giants and Packers. No matter what happens, Graham looks like a sleeper in 2014.
Brandon Pettigrew (Det, 29) – The Lions have sent some mixed signals on Pettigrew this off-season, as new HC Jim Caldwell sounded pretty noncommittal about him, but GM Martin Mayhew said at the combine that signing Pettigrew is a priority for the Lions. Pettigrew is just that kind of player at this point in his career, as he’s got the size and ability but hasn’t produced the last two seasons. Pettigrew, 29, played in 14 games before an ankle injury knocked him out late last season. He posted 41/416/2 receiving on 63 targets (10.1 YPC, 65.1%), and his 6.8 FPG ranked him tied for 32nd at the TE position, so he wasn’t even viable for fantasy purposes. He’s an above-average blocker but drops way too many passes, so the Lions would be wise to let him move on or bring him back at a reasonable price. However, Pettigrew might end up being one of the top tight ends on the market with Jimmy Graham likely off the market, and the Lions don’t have a slam-dunk option behind him with rookie Joseph Fauria, who can’t block to save his life. Pettigrew is a divisive player at this point because his market value is likely much higher than his actual value, and the Lions will have a difficult choice to pay him or let him walk.
Scott Chandler (Buf, 28) – Believe it or not, Chandler has been in and out of the NFL since 2007, but he’s only been relevant in his last three seasons as a member of the Bills. Chandler was coming off an ACL injury suffered in 2012, but he actually led the team in receiving last season, with 53 catches for 655 yards (12.4 YPC) and 2 TDs on 81 targets (65.4% catch rate), which ranked him 22nd among TEs with 8.2 FPG. Chandler had been a bigger factor in the red zone with former QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, but E.J. Manuel and Thad Lewis looked his way just 6 times in the red zone this season. The UFA Chandler would like to return to the Bills next season after playing for three teams in his first four seasons, but the Bills already have Tony Moeaki, Chris Gragg, and Lee Smith under contract. Chandler certainly isn’t a special talent, so the incredibly athletic Gragg could get more opportunities in the passing game, with Moeaki and Smith handling run-blocking duties. And since no one else on the roster has really done anything close to what Chandler has done, he could still be back. HC Doug Marrone has already thrown his support behind Chandler and hopes he decides to return. Chandler turns 29 in July and would actually be entering his eight season.
Brandon Myers (NYG, 29) – Last off-season, NFL teams recognized that Myers’ 79-catch season with the Raiders was an aberration, given Oakland had nothing else, and he was able to land only a one-year deal with the Giants. In New York under long-time TE coach Mike Pope, Myers totaled only 47/522/4 receiving in 16 games. And after OC Kevin Gilbride retired, he told SiriusXM NFL Radio that he thought Myers was more of a backup at his position. That makes sense to us. He’s a solid receiver with good hands, but he lacks explosive ability and is more a chain-mover and check-down option than anything else. But the biggest detriment to Myers’ chances of landing a starting role is the fact that he’s a mediocre blocker, and that’s on a good day. In this day and age of freak-athlete TEs, Myers isn’t going to get a lot of money in free agency, given that he’s a poor athlete and can’t sustain himself purely on his blocking. He’s a one-year deal type of player on a team looking for depth. We asked GM Jerry Reese at the Combine last month about acquiring a “new-age” athletic TE, and he seemed incredibly interested in finally doing just that, so Myers is likely gone.
Dustin Keller (Mia, 29) – In a bit of a surprise move, Keller signed just a one-year deal with the Dolphins for the 2013 season and didn’t even get to play a snap in the regular season. Keller suffered a torn ACL, MCL, MCL, and dislocated knee in the team’s third preseason game, but he was able to avoid nerve damage, so there’s still a chance his career could resume. However, he’s not even a lock to be ready for Week One, so finding a team willing to take a chance on a 30-year-old coming off a severe knee injury might be tough for Keller. The five-year veteran hadn’t missed a game in his time with the Jets until 2012, when various injuries kept him out for half the season. The Dolphins aren’t expected to bring Keller back and at this point, so it’s fair to wonder if his career is over. There have been no concrete updates on Keller’s recovery, but with an injury of that magnitude, it could be a while before he finds a new home, if any team shows interest at all. On the bright side, veteran Heath Miller suffered a comparable injury in 2012, and he was able to play all year in 2013.
Ed Dickson (Bal, 27) – A major disappointment in his four years in the NFL thus far, it’s easy to forget that Dickson was actually drafted ahead of Dennis Pitta back in 2010. But after a “breakout” 54-catch season in 2011, Dickson has totaled only 46 catches the last two years, and his struggles with drops make Raven fans basically cringe at the sound of his name. Comparable to a poor man’s Vernon Davis when he came out of the University of Oregon, Dickson simply never improved. He’s talented enough for a team to give him a shot as a #2 TE, but he absolutely needs a change of scenery, and we’d be shocked if he was back with the Ravens. He’s got a long way to go for fantasy relevance.
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ, 27) – With Dustin Keller moving on, it looked like Cumberland would get a chance to take over the starting job, but the team decided to add veteran Kellen Winslow to the mix. Cumberland ended up starting 12 of 15 games, posting 26/398/4 receiving on 40 targets (65%), and ranked 38th among TEs with 6.0 FPG. He’s more of a rotational player or #2 TE, but the Jets are interested in bringing him back, as they are “bullish” on his development, according to the New York Daily News. We really don’t see it with Cumberland, especially since Winslow put up 31/388/2 in just 12 games. There are much better options available on the free agent market, so Cumberland best chance to find work may be a return to the Jets.
12 more FA TEs are covered online here
Restricted Free Agents
Note: Exclusive-rights free agents are designated as such here
Jake Ballard (Ari, 26) – Picked up by the Cardinals in July after he recovered from knee surgery, Ballard’s presence with the Cardinals coincided with better protection for Carson Palmer and a more efficient, effective run game. For fantasy, he was only a vulture, scoring on 2 of his 7 catches in eight games. But he instantly became the club’s best blocking TE behind the pass-catching Rob Housler, and he played well enough to earn a tender from the Cardinals. He’s expected to get one, according to the Arizona Republic.
Top Offensive Linemen & IDPs
Note: It’s a particularly deep FA class at IDP and non-skill positions. This section contains some of the more interesting players, but we’ll cover many more in our annual free agency review, where we can talk about fantasy impact.
Jairus Byrd (S, Buf) – Byrd is only 27 and has a reputation for being one of the best playmakers at the safety position in the NFL, intercepting 22 passes in his five-year career thus far. And before missing five games this season with a foot injury, he’s also been a durable player, playing in 62 of a possible 64 games over his first four seasons. The Bills want to retain Byrd this off-season and are engaged in contract talks with him, but they could also use the franchise tag on him. The last thing the Bills want to do is to allow Byrd to hit the open market without any leverage because he will be one of the most in-demand players come March 11 should it get to that point. According to WGR Radio in Buffalo, the Bills have also discussed franchising Byrd as a precursor to a trade, just so they don’t have to let him go for nothing. Without a doubt, though, IDP players will be keeping a close eye on Byrd’s final destination.
Alex Mack (C, Cle) – Mack’s only 28, has never missed a game in his five-year NFL career, and is one of the best centers in the NFL. Someone rarely knocked to the ground, Mack’s been the centerpiece of an underrated offensive line since he entered the league. According to NFL Network, Mack, and not T.J. Ward, is the Browns’ top priority this off-season, and he appears open to re-signing. Whether he lands with the Browns or hits the open market, he’s got a good shot to become the highest-paid center in the NFL.
Eugene Monroe (LT, Bal) – The assumption is that there is no way the Ravens would let Monroe go, given that he protects QB Joe Flacco’s blindside, and the club traded two 2014 draft picks to acquire him back in October (the Jags got 4th and 5th rounders for him). With TE Dennis Pitta already locked up, Monroe becomes the Ravens’ top priority, and there is an outside chance that he could get franchised if the two sides can’t reach a deal, given they won’t have to use the tag on Pitta. But every expectation here, knowing what Ozzie Newsome gave up to acquire Monroe, is that he won’t hit the open market. At 27, there’s no more appealing free-agent tackle this year.
Alterraun Verner (CB, Ten) – Verner is one of our favorite players in this year’s free agency class. He’s an aggressive, talented corner who plays bigger than his 5’10” size. He’s experienced in playing press man coverage, and he’s a solid help defender against the run as well, registering 49 solo tackles in 2013, after 64 in 2012. It’s possible that Verner is too pricy for the Titans, and if that’s the case, he’s got a shot to become the highest-paid free agent CB this off-season. Verner turned just 25 before Christmas, so he has a ton of good football in front of him.
Michael Johnson (DE, Cin) – Unlike most of the free agents in this category, it would be surprising if the Bengals bring him back. Johnson had a disappointing 3.5 sacks this past year, but he’s still only 27 and his talent level suggests he can be a very productive player over the course of a big free-agent contract. Given the money the Bengals have pumped into Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins extensions, and the money they’ve got to free up for A.J. Green, Vontaze Burfict, and perhaps Andy Dalton contracts, Johnson is expendable. He becomes one of the top rush ends on the market. This is speculation, but could possibly follow former DC Mike Zimmer to Minnesota, where he’d replace Jared Allen.
Aqib Talib (CB, NE) – While consistency and injury issues are always worth discussing when it comes to Talib, one thing that can’t be debated is his talent level. At the top of his game, Talib may be one of the best pound-for-pound corners in the NFL (heck, he even shut down Jimmy Graham this past year). The Patriots badly want to keep him, but they don’t have a ton of cap space and corners are always in demand on the open market. He’s one player whose one-year “prove it” deal, which he took last year, is going to make him a lot of money.
Branden Albert (LT, KC) – With last year’s #1 overall pick Eric Fisher ready to slide over to Alex Smith’s blindside, Albert is expected to hit the market, where he’ll certainly be in demand for many of the OL-starved teams in the NFL. The Cardinals’ interest in him is so obvious that even the team’s official website suggest it as a possibility, and you may remember that the Dolphins tried to trade for him last year. However, Albert has had back issues and will turn 30 during the 2014 season, so some other teams may view him as someone to avoid in free agency. Others, like the Cardinals, may not have a choice but to put in a big bid for one of the games premier tackles, when he’s healthy.
T.J. Ward (S, Cle) – Ward is another player who isn’t expected to hit the open market – should the Browns not come to a long-term deal with him, the franchise tag is absolutely a possibility. He and Jairus Byrd are the top two free agent safeties on the market but are polar opposites – Ward is almost a glorified linebacker, while Byrd is the “center fielder” that most think of when describing the safety position. IDP players who love their tackles will find them with Ward, who was #8 among all DBs this season with 76 solos. We wouldn’t anticipate Ward playing anywhere but Cleveland next year, but should he hit the market, he’d be in-demand as one of the best box defenders at his position and an underrated seam defender against TEs.
Vontae Davis (CB, Oak) - Davis is the top priority for the Colts this off-season, and the organization must be optimistic about reaching a long-term deal as they didn't place franchise tag on him. The Dolphins locked up CB Brent Grimes, leaving Davis with Titan CB Alterraun Verner and Patriot CB Aqib Talib as the top remaining cornerbacks. Davis, 25, finished last season with 1 INT, 12 passes defended, and 48 tackles. Davis plays best in man-to-man coverage, and he locked up against the likes of Andre Johnson and Demaryius Thomas last season.Davis wants to stay in Indianapolis and the Colts would love to have him back, so these two sides will work hard to iron out a deal.
Jared Veldheer (LT, Oak) – After a fantastic 2012 season, Veldheer’s 2013 season didn’t get off to a great start when he suffered a torn triceps in August. He had surgery and opened the regular season on the designated-to-return IR where he remained until making his debut on Thanksgiving. Veldheer is one of the best pass-blockers in the league and while he was limited to just five games, he should draw a lot of interest on the open market with the Raiders deciding not to use the franchise tag on him. Veldheer said he didn’t want to be franchised and could still sign a long-term with Oakland, as they have a ton of cap room heading into the start of free agency. Veldheer, who turns 27 in June, was somewhat limited in his return from injury, but had great years in 2011 and 2012, and is one of the most consistent, athletic players at the position. As one of the top non-skill players, we doubt he’s available for very long.
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