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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #13
Published, June 7, 2013
Copyright © 1995-2013
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:
- Off-Season Report #12: 2013's Position Battles - 6/7
ALSO ONLINE:
- 2013 Season Projections - 6/6
- Keeper/Dynasty League Rankings - 6/4
- Depth Charts - 6/3
- 2013 Auction Draft Plan - 6/3
- 2013 ADP Report - 5/31
- 2013 Top-100 IDPs - 5/31
- 2013 Draft Plan - 5/24
- 2013 SOS Analysis - 5/15
- 2013 IDP Rookie Report - 5/10
- Post-Draft Podcast - 5/10
- Post-Draft Rookie Report - 5/7
- Post-Draft Stock Watch - 4/30
- 2013 Rookie Player Profiles - 4/23
- 2013 Free Agency Tracker - 4/23
- Pre-Draft Rookie Report Podcast - 4/19
- 2013 Remaining Free Agents - 4/16
- The Stock Watch - 4/15
- 2013 Pre-Draft Rookie Report - 3/27
- 2012 300/100 Yard Bonus Analysis - 3/25
- 2012 Catch Rate Analysis - 3/21
- 2012's Lessons Learned - 2/11
- 2012 Wrap/2013 Preview - 2/8
UP NEXT:
- Off-Season Report #13: 2013 Team Reports (Next week)
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2013 Position Battles
Published, 6/7/13
Editor’s Note: We’ve written several times this off-season that the 2012 campaign went down as a relatively straight-forward one. There were generally more things that happened that were expected to happen than usual. But if history is any indication, this year could be a little more chaotic. Although there aren’t a ton of actual starting jobs up for grabs this year, there are a slew of secondary roles up for grabs, and many of them could be very important for fantasy. As usual, we’ve enlisted the extensive knowledge and background of NFL Insider Adam Caplan to help us understand all of this year’s position battles. This first installment is mainly a preview of what’s to come this summer regarding these position clashes. Once the pads go on this summer and the bullet start flying for real, Caplan will update this report once a week and for the final two weeks of the preseason almost daily.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
The Battle: Joseph Randle vs. Phillip Tanner vs. Lance Dunbar for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: Randle is an interesting back. The rookie has the best versatility of the three players in this battle. Tanner has the best size, while Dunbar is more of a change-of-pace RB. Tanner and Randle figure to handle the #2 role should starting RB DeMarco Murray be unable to play, with Randle having the most value due to his versatility.
The Battle: Terrence Williams vs. Dwayne Harris vs. Cole Beasley for team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Because of the injury history of starting WR Miles Austin, this role takes on a greater value than most #3 WR jobs. Williams is really an outside WR. Harris is capable of playing inside or outside, and Beasley is strictly an inside/slot WR. Williams, who has better size than Harris, should wind up backing up Austin if he doesn’t struggle learning the offense.
The Skinny: Randle is an interesting back. The rookie has the best versatility of the three players in this battle. Tanner has the best size, while Dunbar is more of a change-of-pace RB. Tanner and Randle figure to handle the #2 role should starting RB DeMarco Murray be unable to play, with Randle having the most value due to his versatility.
The Battle: Terrence Williams vs. Dwayne Harris vs. Cole Beasley for team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Because of the injury history of starting WR Miles Austin, this role takes on a greater value than most #3 WR jobs. Williams is really an outside WR. Harris is capable of playing inside or outside, and Beasley is strictly an inside/slot WR. Williams, who has better size than Harris, should wind up backing up Austin if he doesn’t struggle learning the offense.
New York Giants
The Battle: David Wilson vs. Andre Brown for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: Wilson is expected to handle the starting job unless he has another bout of fumbling in the preseason. With that being the case in 2012, Brown, when healthy last season, was terrific as the team’s goal-line back. And Wilson has yet to prove he can handle a third down role, which is why it’s possible that the team winds up signing a veteran to handle that role. Look for Wilson to be the primary first– and second-down back, but the other roles are still a bit fluid at this point.
The Battle: Reuben Randle vs. Louis Murphy for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Due to starting WR Hakeem Nicks’ lengthy injury history, this role takes on a greater importance. Randle and Murphy will compete for a role to be the top backup WR, but Randle was selected in the second round last year with the belief that he would have a larger role going forward. Look for him to wind up being the top backup this season.
The Battle: Reuben Randle vs. Louis Murphy for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Due to starting WR Hakeem Nicks’ lengthy injury history, this role takes on a greater importance. Randle and Murphy will compete for a role to be the top backup WR, but Randle was selected in the second round last year with the belief that he would have a larger role going forward. Look for him to wind up being the top backup this season.
Philadelphia Eagles
The Battle: Michael Vick vs. Nick Foles vs. Matt Barkley for the team’s starting QB job
The Skinny: As the Eagles closed their off-season earlier this week, Foles seemed to have a slight lead on the starting job. While that might be a surprised to some, Vick still has the same issues he’s always had—he holds on to the ball too long and waits for this WRs and TEs to get open instead of throwing with anticipation. Foles, whose arm looks to be improved from his rookie season, has done a nice job of running HC Chip Kelly’s shotgun, spread offense. Look for Foles to win this job by the third preseason game.
The Battle: Michael Vick vs. Nick Foles vs. Matt Barkley for the team’s starting QB job
The Skinny: As the Eagles closed their off-season earlier this week, Foles seemed to have a slight lead on the starting job. While that might be a surprised to some, Vick still has the same issues he’s always had—he holds on to the ball too long and waits for this WRs and TEs to get open instead of throwing with anticipation. Foles, whose arm looks to be improved from his rookie season, has done a nice job of running HC Chip Kelly’s shotgun, spread offense. Look for Foles to win this job by the third preseason game.
The Battle: Felix Jones vs. Bryce Brown for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: Jones was clearly behind Brown as the team finished their mandatory minicamp. If Jones makes team, he’ll likely handle a change-of-pace role and compete for a role as a KR.
The Battle: Brent Celek vs. Zach Ertz for the team’s starting TE job
The Skinny: The Eagles are expected to put a greater importance on the TE position when it comes to the passing game in Kelly’s offense. In fact, it appears that they will use a combination of two TEs on most downs (TE and H-back James Casey). Ertz is a much better athlete than the veteran Celek, which is why they spent a second-round pick on the rookie. Look for Celek to start, but Ertz will be expected to be the playmaker at the position.
Washington Redskins
The Battle: Brent Celek vs. Zach Ertz for the team’s starting TE job
The Skinny: The Eagles are expected to put a greater importance on the TE position when it comes to the passing game in Kelly’s offense. In fact, it appears that they will use a combination of two TEs on most downs (TE and H-back James Casey). Ertz is a much better athlete than the veteran Celek, which is why they spent a second-round pick on the rookie. Look for Celek to start, but Ertz will be expected to be the playmaker at the position.
Washington Redskins
The Battle: Keiland Williams vs. Roy Helu vs. Evan Royster vs. Chris Thompson for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: Thompson, who is coming back from ACL surgery, isn’t expected to contribute much this season. Royster and Williams have extensive experience in HC Mike Shanahan’s offense, but Helu is the most talented of the three. Look for Helu, if healthy, to win this role.
The Battle: Leonard Hankerson vs. Santana Moss for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Moss is capable of playing on the inside or outside, but figures to see more time out of the again slot this season, with Hankerson seeing time as the team’s top backup on the outside. Should one of the starters be unable to play, Hankerson figures to start on the outside, with Moss handling the slot role.
NFC North
Chicago Bears
The Battle: Earl Bennett vs. Alshon Jeffery for the team’s starting WR job (#2)
The Skinny: Jeffery started six games as a rookie and the expectation is that he’ll take over the starting job opposite veteran WR Brandon Marshall full-time in his second season. Bennett will take over as the slot receiver. However, Jeffery was a sloppy route runner last season, so his margin for error could be low with the new coaching staff.
The Battle: Earl Bennett vs. Alshon Jeffery for the team’s starting WR job (#2)
The Skinny: Jeffery started six games as a rookie and the expectation is that he’ll take over the starting job opposite veteran WR Brandon Marshall full-time in his second season. Bennett will take over as the slot receiver. However, Jeffery was a sloppy route runner last season, so his margin for error could be low with the new coaching staff.
Detroit Lions
The Battle: Mikel Leshoure vs. Reggie Bush for the starting RB job
The Skinny: With Bush added to the Lion offense, the team may take on more of a spread look on that side of the football going forward. Leshoure was nursing yet another injury as of early June, and as we learned last season, he can hardly be counted on. However, he has been effective in short-yardage over his first two seasons (18 rushing TDs). Look for Bush to be the team’s primary back this season, with Leshoure and RB Joique Bell backing him up.
The Battle: Ryan Broyles vs. Mike Thomas for the team’s #3 WR job.
The Skinny: Despite major depth issues opposite WR Calvin Johnson last season, the Lions still didn’t sign a veteran WR this off-season. Veteran WR Nate Burleson, if healthy, is expected to start opposite Johnson. The #3 role could take on more value than usual with the Lions, since it’s expected that he’ll spread the field more with Bush in the backfield. Broyles is making good progress coming back from his second ACL injury, but it’s expected that the team will add a veteran at some point for depth. As of now, look for Broyles, if healthy, to handle the #3 role.
The Battle: Ryan Broyles vs. Mike Thomas for the team’s #3 WR job.
The Skinny: Despite major depth issues opposite WR Calvin Johnson last season, the Lions still didn’t sign a veteran WR this off-season. Veteran WR Nate Burleson, if healthy, is expected to start opposite Johnson. The #3 role could take on more value than usual with the Lions, since it’s expected that he’ll spread the field more with Bush in the backfield. Broyles is making good progress coming back from his second ACL injury, but it’s expected that the team will add a veteran at some point for depth. As of now, look for Broyles, if healthy, to handle the #3 role.
Green Bay Packers
The Battle: James Starks vs. Alex Green vs. Eddie Lacy vs. DuJuan Harris vs. Jonathan Franklin for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: HC Mike McCarthy was clearly frustrated with the struggles of Starks and Green last season, so the team addressed the running game in the second round (Lacy) and fourth round (Franklin) in this year’s draft. Lacy, if he can stay healthy, will start, but he will have to earn the job. Starks, due to his injury history and inconsistency, figures to be cut before the season starts. Harris, who ended last season as the starter, figures to compete for the #3 role vs. Green. Franklin, due to his versatility, should be able to earn a third-down role in addition to backing up Lacy.
The Battle: James Jones vs. Jordy Nelson vs. Randall Cobb for team’s two starting WR jobs
The Skinny: While Cobb and Nelson are expected to start, Jones is the most physical of the three WRs. He’ll likely have a prominent role in several areas (third down, red zone) as well as being the team’s top backup WR. Jones should have more value than most NFL #3 WRs.
The Battle: James Jones vs. Jordy Nelson vs. Randall Cobb for team’s two starting WR jobs
The Skinny: While Cobb and Nelson are expected to start, Jones is the most physical of the three WRs. He’ll likely have a prominent role in several areas (third down, red zone) as well as being the team’s top backup WR. Jones should have more value than most NFL #3 WRs.
Minnesota Vikings
The Battle: Jerome Simpson vs. Corderrelle Patterson vs. vs. Jarius Wright for the team’s #2 WR job
The Skinny: The team selected Patterson in the first round of this year’s draft with the belief that he’ll eventually start opposite veteran WR Greg Jennings this season. Patterson is a bit raw as a prospect, but his upside is huge. Simpson might start early on, but look for Patterson to take over the job well before mid-season. Wright could wind up handling the #3 role.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
The Battle: Jacquizz Rodgers vs. Jason Snelling for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: Because of his diminutive stature (under 5’6”), Rodgers likely will be used as a change-of-pace should starting RB Steven Jackson be unable to play. The versatile Snelling, who has much better size than Rodgers, would likely see at least half of the carries if Jackson couldn’t play. Rodgers, under normal circumstances (meaning Jackson is playing), is considered to be Jackson’s main backup.
Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers
The Battle: DeAngelo Williams vs. Jonathan Stewart for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: With the expectation that new OC Mike Shula will take more of a power rushing approach to the offensive game plan this season, look for the two players to form a RBBC of sorts. There’s simply no way to distinguish the touches at this point until well into training camp. Williams had his contract restructured, so he’s almost assured of being on the roster this season. Whoever doesn’t start will back up the other RB.
New Orleans Saints
The Battle: Pierre Thomas vs. Darren Sproles vs. Mark Ingram for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: With HC Sean Payton back on the sidelines, it’s expected that the team will make a stronger commitment to running the ball. Last season with Payton not coaching, the team finished 25th in rushing (98.6 yards/game, 29th in attempts). While having to play from behind so much of the time due to their bad defense factored in to the low rushing attempts total, Payton believes in running the ball in some respect. That’s why the team traded up for Ingram two years ago. In 2011, the Saints were ranked6th in rushing, despite being ranked just 20th in attempts. While Thomas will always have a role due to his versatility, it’s expected that Ingram will handle more carries than the other two backs this season, despite seeing only 24% of the offensive snaps in 2012. Thomas and Sproles will see most of the passing down role, with Ingram likely seeing snaps more than the other two backs on first and second downs.
The Battle: Kenny Stills vs. Joseph Morgan for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: The Saints like to spread out the defense, so this role has some late-round value for fantasy owners. Morgan will take over as the designated deep threat for veteran WR Devery Henderson, who is unsigned. When the team goes with their nickel offense, veteran WR Lance Moore figures to play inside, with Morgan and WR Marques Colston on the outside. Stills figures to back up on the outside.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Battle: Mike Smith vs. Mike James vs. Brian Leonard for team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: James is the most intriguing of the three backs. Leonard is clearly on the roster for one big reason—he played for HC Greg Schiano in college. He’ll likely see time at RB and FB. It’s certainly possible that the team signs a veteran to compete for the job, but look for the team to employ a RBBC behind starting RB Doug Martin, with James having the most upside of the group. James is a bigger back, so the theory is that he would replace LeGarrette Blount.
The Battle: Tom Crabtree vs. Luke Stocker for the team’s starting TE job
The Skinny: Crabtree is a pretty good blocker, but he is not much of a receiver. It’s expected that Stocker, who is a better receiver than Crabtree, winds up handling the receiving role at the position this season.
The Battle: Tiquan Underwood vs. Kevin Ogletree for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: With veteran WR Steve Smith retiring, Ogletree is the favorite to handle this job. Underwood is probably better playing on the outside.
The Battle: Mike Smith vs. Mike James vs. Brian Leonard for team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: James is the most intriguing of the three backs. Leonard is clearly on the roster for one big reason—he played for HC Greg Schiano in college. He’ll likely see time at RB and FB. It’s certainly possible that the team signs a veteran to compete for the job, but look for the team to employ a RBBC behind starting RB Doug Martin, with James having the most upside of the group. James is a bigger back, so the theory is that he would replace LeGarrette Blount.
The Battle: Tom Crabtree vs. Luke Stocker for the team’s starting TE job
The Skinny: Crabtree is a pretty good blocker, but he is not much of a receiver. It’s expected that Stocker, who is a better receiver than Crabtree, winds up handling the receiving role at the position this season.
The Battle: Tiquan Underwood vs. Kevin Ogletree for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: With veteran WR Steve Smith retiring, Ogletree is the favorite to handle this job. Underwood is probably better playing on the outside.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
The Battle: Rashard Mendenhall vs. Ryan Williams for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: HC Bruce Arians coached Mendenhall with the Steelers, which explains why the Cardinals signed him. While Williams is very talented, he’s missed 27 out of 32 games over his first two seasons due to injury, so he can be hardly counted upon. Look for a RBBC between the two backs with Mendenhall getting the first chance. Rookie RBs Stepfan Taylor and Andre Ellington will compete for the #3 role. Taylor could also see an increased role on third downs.
The Skinny: Michael Floyd vs. Andre Roberts for the team’s starting WR job (#2)
The Battle: Roberts was a nice surprise last season, but Floyd was drafted to eventually start opposite WR Larry Fitzgerald. Floyd started seeing increased snaps with the starters during OTAs, and it’s expected that he’ll wind up starting this season, with Roberts handling the #3 role.
The Skinny: Jeff King vs. Rob Housler for the team’s starting TE job
The Battle: King is a much better blocker than Housler, but he can’t run at all. Look for Housler, who is known in NFL personnel circles as one of the fastest TEs in the league, to handle the receiving role at the position.
San Francisco 49ers
The Battle: Marcus Lattimore vs. Kendall Hunter vs. LaMichael James vs. Anthony Dixon for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: With the likelihood that Lattimore won’t play much this season as he continues to recover from ACL surgery, Hunter should take over the #2 role again. However, keep in mind he’s coming back from Achilles surgery, so he might not be close to what he was before the injury. James should be the #3 RB.
The Battle: A.J. Jenkins vs. Quinton Patton vs. Mario Manningham for the team’s starting WR job
The Skinny: With starting WR Michael Crabtree out for most of the season due to injury, at least one of the jobs is open. Veteran WR Anquan Boldin will start on one side. With Manningham coming off ACL surgery, Jenkins figures to get a serious shot at starting. And they really could use his ability to get downfield. Their passing game lacked a deep threat last season. However, Jenkins saw only 35 snaps on offense as a rookie, so he’s hardly a sure thing. Patton, who doesn’t run very well, is more of a possession WR. Look for Jenkins to play a prominent role opposite Boldin—if he has a better grasp of the offense than he did last season. Jenkins, we’re told, was thinking too much in practice last year.
The Skinny: With starting WR Michael Crabtree out for most of the season due to injury, at least one of the jobs is open. Veteran WR Anquan Boldin will start on one side. With Manningham coming off ACL surgery, Jenkins figures to get a serious shot at starting. And they really could use his ability to get downfield. Their passing game lacked a deep threat last season. However, Jenkins saw only 35 snaps on offense as a rookie, so he’s hardly a sure thing. Patton, who doesn’t run very well, is more of a possession WR. Look for Jenkins to play a prominent role opposite Boldin—if he has a better grasp of the offense than he did last season. Jenkins, we’re told, was thinking too much in practice last year.
Seattle Seahawks
The Battle: Robert Turbin vs. Christine Michael for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: Turbin almost certainly will be starting RB Marshawn Lynch’s backup again this season. However, when a team selects a running back in the second round as they did with Michael, that player will eventually be expected to take on a more prominent role—that should happen by year two in back of Lynch if Michael stays out of trouble. He had major discipline problems in college.
The Battle: Doug Baldwin vs. Golden Tate for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Baldwin is best suited for a slot/#3 role, which is the role he has been targeted for this season. Tate should be the team’s top backup outside WR.
St. Louis Rams
The Battle: Isaiah Pead vs. Daryl Richardson vs. Zac Stacy vs. Terrance Ganaway for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: While it’s still possible that the team winds up signing a veteran to compete for the starting job, the role is open at the moment, with Pead and Richardson as the top-two competitors. And with Pead and Richardson being smaller backs, we could see more of a spread offense from the Rams this season. This role figures to sort itself out during training camp.
The Battle: Brian Quick vs. Chris Givens vs. Tavon Austin vs. Austin Pettis vs. Stedman Bailey for the team’s two starting WR jobs
The Battle: Robert Turbin vs. Christine Michael for the team’s #2 RB job
The Skinny: Turbin almost certainly will be starting RB Marshawn Lynch’s backup again this season. However, when a team selects a running back in the second round as they did with Michael, that player will eventually be expected to take on a more prominent role—that should happen by year two in back of Lynch if Michael stays out of trouble. He had major discipline problems in college.
The Battle: Doug Baldwin vs. Golden Tate for the team’s #3 WR job
The Skinny: Baldwin is best suited for a slot/#3 role, which is the role he has been targeted for this season. Tate should be the team’s top backup outside WR.
St. Louis Rams
The Battle: Isaiah Pead vs. Daryl Richardson vs. Zac Stacy vs. Terrance Ganaway for the team’s starting RB job
The Skinny: While it’s still possible that the team winds up signing a veteran to compete for the starting job, the role is open at the moment, with Pead and Richardson as the top-two competitors. And with Pead and Richardson being smaller backs, we could see more of a spread offense from the Rams this season. This role figures to sort itself out during training camp.
The Battle: Brian Quick vs. Chris Givens vs. Tavon Austin vs. Austin Pettis vs. Stedman Bailey for the team’s two starting WR jobs
The Winners: Quick had a major problem making the jump from playing in a lesser level of competition in college to the NFL, so he struggled as a rookie. Givens was a nice surprise for the team, but was a bit inconsistent. Austin, due to his versatility (WR, RB), figures to have a prominent role—even as a rookie. Pettis and Bailey figure to be competing for time as backups this season. Look for Quick, Givens, and Austin to be the team’s top three WRs this season, but who winds up starting won’t be settled until deep into training camp.
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Copyright © 1995-2013
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All Rights Reserved
Web: www.fantasyguru.com
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