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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #15
Published, June 28, 2013
Copyright © 1995-2013
Guru Fantasy Reports, Inc. All Rights Reserved
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #15: 2013's Values & Players to Target - 6/27

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UP NEXT:

Off-Season Report #16: 2013 Overvalued & Players to Avoid (Early next week)

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2013’s Values & Players to Target

Published, 6/28/13

Last year with this article, we focused on younger, ascending players, and while there are always mixed results when trying to isolate breakout players, that went pretty well.

We’re still mainly about talent, rising stars, and going for the jugular. But with unusual depth at most of the key skill positions, we feel the plan of action this year is to be a little more restrained in our approach. In short, we believe this year the players need to present even more compelling evidence than usual in order to be draft-worthy. And if they don’t, we’re probably going to pass. This is also a season in which we feel there are a few more fantasy commodities whose true 2013 values won’t come into focus until we’re well into training camps, so this year’s marketplace could be fairly chaotic come August. Of course, we’re always about value, and while there are fewer bargains this year, we do have some nice deals out there in the fantasy marketplace.

As we did last year, in order to show an even stronger conviction with our recommendations, we’re going to include a separate list of players for each stage of a draft we’ll cover below, regardless of position, that we’re essentially all-in on this year. Granted, this is not a great year for values, so going “all in” on some players is less appealing than it was last year. But we’re back for another year of analyzing player talents, roles, and offensive schemes, and we’ll always also add in some insight into when players are typically being drafted and when they should be drafted. And finally, we’ll routinely consider each player’s ceiling and floor, so their upside and downside are clear.

Let’s get started…

Note: For much more information on each player, you can read up on them in our player profiles, or by viewing their individual player pages and clicking on the “Profile” tab.

Picks 1-30

Quarterback Targets:

Peyton Manning (Den) – Manning’s ADP was actually at around 35 when we published this article in late-June, but of the “big three” at QB, he looks like the most affordable option, so we’ll list him here for now. He’ll likely rise into the top-30 by summer’s end, anyway. In his phenomenal return from injury in the 2012 season, Manning finished 7^th among all QBs, with 23.9 FPG. Since, his Broncos have added WR Wes Welker and RB Montee Ball to their already dangerous arsenal, and there are some intriguing young players like TE Julius Thomas, as well. Reports indicate that Manning’s arm is strengthening another year removed from his neck surgery, and with his improved weaponry, it seems fair to suggest that his numbers will be improved from where they were a season ago. It seems as if 2013 is shaping up to be a phenomenal year to wait a little bit to select a QB, but if you’re stuck in the early rounds, Peyton looks like the guy to go after. All leagues are different, but it seems very possible this year to get two studs at RB/WR with your first two picks and then Manning. And we can certainly sign off on that as being a good start.

Quarterback Values

None of note

Running Back Targets

Doug Martin (TB) – We’re all-in on Martin, and it’s arguable – if not clear – that he’s a better pick than Arian Foster. Martin was a top-10 producer in nearly every major RB category, and a top-five producer in most of those categories, and his 16.5 FPG ranked him 3^rd among all players at the position, and only 0.1 FPG behind Foster (who finished#2). And while Foster’s rate stats took a big step backward in 2012, Martin seems poised to improve in 2013, and his role appears as safe as any back’s in the NFL (the top backup is expected to be rookie Mike James). Also, head coach Greg Schiano said Martin is in better shape this year than he was last year. The Buc offense (with its offensive line now healthier) will run through Martin. While Martin’s QB has been shaky, we do expect the offense to improve in their second season in the system and with OC Mike Sullivan, whose coaching helped turn Eli Manning’s career growth in New York. It’s hard to argue against Martin as the #2 or #3 pick. After that, he’s a veritable steal.

Jamaal Charles (KC) – There seems to be an argument against drafting Charles that revolves around new coach Andy Reid’s “resistance” to running the football. But here are the facts: Reid’s long been maligned by fantasy players for “ignoring” his star RBs (Brian Westbrook, LeSean McCoy), but given that McCoy had a 20-TD season in 2011, we think the notion that Reid doesn’t run the ball enough is often a little overblown (the Eagles’ 42.7% run percentage last season was a few points below league average). Plus, we’d expect to see Charles be much more involved in pass patterns, where he was conspicuously underutilized in 2012 (Charles has averaged 3.3 targets per game in his career, compared to McCoy’s 4.8). As for Charles, he said in June that Reid’s offense “might be the best thing that ever happened” to him, according to the Kansas City Star. Charles anticipates having a huge role in the Chief passing game this season. And oh yeah, he’s coming off 1800 yards from scrimmage in 2012, a year removed from an ACL injury. Charles’ ADP currently has him as the clear-cut #4 pick in drafts, and we’re totally comfortable with being that aggressive on him (and the argument could be made he has more upside than Arian Foster this season).

C.J. Spiller (Buf) – At FantasyGuru.com, we always like to say that you want to select next year’s first-round picks, not last year’s. Spiller fits that bill. While he has yet to be a true full-time back in the NFL, in the six games Fred Jackson was sidelined in 2012, Spiller saw 17 carries and 4 targets a game, going from 11.2 FPG with Jackson to 17.7 without him. Overall, Spiller was the #2 RB in FPG when he had the backfield to himself, and he put up monster yardage totals in line with the greats at the RB position, despite getting about 100 fewer touches, on average, than the RBs in front of him. He’s playing for a new coach in Doug Marrone, who has made no secrets about how he wants to use Spiller, including in shotgun and short-yardage situations. That could relegate Jackson to handcuff duty. Spiller has been durable (and he proved tough in 2012, playing hurt) and dynamic over the last two seasons, and his 7.2 ADP means he could be a little bit of a value if he slips even a pick or two below that. For our purposes, drafting him as high as #4 or #5 is totally defensible because he’s obviously special.

Trent Richardson (Cle) – There are obviously some questions about Richardson. Last season, he finished 8^thamong RBs, with 13.6 FPG, but he averaged only 3.6 YPC. He played in 15 games last season, but he played hurt, and he already has a concern about his right shin this year, which shut him down in the spring. But if Richardson is healthy, we love the new Norv Turner power running/downfield throwing offense for him, and he plays behind one of the better offensive lines in football. We’re obviously concerned about Richardson’s injuries, and his schedule is never a cakewalk. But due to his youth, high-end talent, receiving ability, and the lack of depth behind him, it’s hard to find a whole lot of RBs we’d endorse in front of him. If he proves he’s healthy and his 10.1 ADP holds through the summer, he’s a great pick at the bottom of the first round.

Matt Forte (Chi) – Forte’s nagging injuries from the last few seasons and his chronic struggles at the goal line have soured some fantasy owners on him. That’s understandable. But the arrival of Marc Trestman in Chicago should give reason for major hope. Forte has been a player the Bears have split out wide in the past, and it’s arguable he’s the Bears’ #2 target in the passing game. So note that in 2002, when Trestman was the Raiders’ offensive coordinator, RB Charlie Garner caught a whopping 91 balls for 941 yards and 4 TDs in addition to the 962 yards and 7 TDs he had on the ground. Last season, Forte ended up with 248 carries for 1094 yards (4.4 YPC) and 5 TDs and played 66.3% of the Bears’ snaps, but he saw his role in the passing game drop a bit from previous seasons. He ended up with 44/340/1 on 60 targets, which still put him at a very solid 13^th overall among RBs, with 12 FPG. As Forte has already said, he’s learning all the receivers’ routes in addition to the run scheme, so expect his targets to increase significantly in 2013. We also like how they have been persistent in their efforts to upgrade their OL. There could be some growing pains in the first year of the offense, but in a PPR league it shouldn’t matter too much for Forte. For a guy whose PPR ADP (13.9) makes him look like a guy available in the late 1^st/early 2^nd rounds, that’s a potential steal. In a non-PPR, he’s a little lower, but not much.

Reggie Bush (Det) – We’re coming into 2013 a little bit blind with Bush. All in all, we don’t know exactly how he’ll be used. While Bush impressed in his first real go-around as a lead NFL back with the Dolphins, the Lions felt like he was a bit misused in Miami. That’s why the Lions plan to use him a little bit more dynamically, like he was used in New Orleans. In 31 games with the Dolphins, Bush averaged 2.5 receptions and 3.3 targets per game. In 60 games with the Saints, Bush averaged 4.9 receptions and 6.7 targets per game, nearly double the receiving production. But we also must point out that Bush had exactly the same rushing total (2083 yards) in two seasons with Miami that he had in five seasons with the Saints. In Detroit, we’re expecting more of a balance. His 12-team PPR ADP of around 20 seems very fair, then, especially because the Lions lack high-end receiving talent outside of Calvin Johnson (a problem, since they threw the ball an NFL record number of time last season). He’s not a slam-dunk mainly due to some career injury issues, but his combination of lead back qualities and PPR monster potential in the passing game is appealing.

Running Back Values

Stevan Ridley (NE) – The Patriots ran more plays than any team in the NFL last year, which helped them run the ball more than any team in the NFL except Seattle. But even still, Ridley is “disrespected” by fantasy owners, often dropping into the late-2^nd/early-3^rd rounds by ADP (23.9), despite his finishing 10^th among RBs last season and the Patriots losing a monstrous amount of production (Aaron Hernandez, Wes Welker, Brandon Lloyd, Danny Woodhead, and Rob Gronkowski is injured). We understand the idea that there’s never any indication of what the Patriots are going to do, but we have to imagine running the ball will be a huge part of their plans in 2013, at least until some other receiving options emerge. Since they should need him more than ever, there’s a lot to like about this young, talented back with minimal mileage playing on a team that will still move the ball and score points.

Wide Receiver Targets

Julio Jones (Atl) – It might just be an early sample size issue, and fantasy players shouldn’t count on Julio being around that long, but his current ADP has him available around the late 2^nd round (21.5). The point is he’s too talented and is in such a perfect offense that targeting him as a #1 receiver is a great strategy, no matter what. Jones finished the year 10^th among WRs, with 11.4 FG, on 79 catches (9.51 YPT, 63.0% catch rate, 10^th, best among WRs with 100+ targets) for 1198 yards and 10 TDs. Jones’ 62.7% catch rate ranked him 12^th out of the 37 WRs with 100+ targets last season. Jones was also 6^th among those with 100+ targets with an average of 9.51 yards per target. Yes, his game is still developing and there’s room for improvement. Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez aren’t going anywhere, but it’s obvious they can coexist with Matt Ryan throwing them the football. Jones isn’t really a “post-hype sleeper,” but there’s an element of that at play in 2013.

Demaryius Thomas (Den) – We might get nervous about Wes Welker taking away a ton of targets here, but we undersold Thomas’ freak natural ability last season, and we won’t do it again. Here are the facts: Thomas finished 4^th among all WRs in FPG last year, and he’s the most physically gifted WR that Peyton Manning has ever played with. That is exactly what Peyton’s dad told us on the radio midseason last year. His current PPR ADP has him at 24.9, which means he’s typically going off the board in the 20-30 range. If other owners in your league are wary about Thomas having to share the cookies with Welker and Eric Decker, remember last season, and remember who is throwing the ball. Thomas would be a genuine steal in the 3^rd round, and he’s a rock-solid late-2^nd pick. Welker will pilfer some looks from both Thomas and Decker, but he’ll also single them up more and give them a better chance to make plays at times.

Wide Receiver Values

Larry Fitzgerald (Ari) – Yes, we understand that it might be a tough pill to swallow to get behind Fitz after he got outscored by teammate Andre Roberts last season. But consider it an opportunity to get almost a “value” pick on a WR who is bound for Canton. Fitzgerald’s current ADP has him at 30.3, a mid-3^rd-round pick in a 12-team league. That’s not as big a value as Reggie Wayne was last season, but understand that Bruce Arians is coming into Arizona with a massive QB upgrade in Carson Palmer, much like he did last year in Indy with Andrew Luck. Palmer ain’t Luck, but physically, Fitz brings more to the table these days than Wayne does. With the QB upgrade and with Arians inclined to make 1-2 players the foundation of his passing game, a rebound season of 80 catches and 10 TDs is not only in play, we’re basically expecting it.

Tight End Targets

Jimmy Graham (NO) – It’s becoming quite clear that Graham could give fantasy teams a decided advantage at TE because he’s clearly the best player at the position entering the year. It’s been a long time, if ever, since we’ve seen such a clear disparity between the top player at a position and the rest of his peers. If you select Graham in the second round and can make up for picking a TE early with solid picks at the other skill positions later on, you could have a tough team to beat. Graham played with nagging wrist and ankle injuries last season, but he missed just one game and led the Saints in receiving. Graham looked to be back to 100% at off-season workouts, despite a small brace on his wrist, and he showed a great chemistry with QB Drew Brees. While there is risk that Graham could battle injuries once again this season, he still has the potential to give fantasy owners a huge advantage at the TE spot – especially with Sean Payton back in the saddle.

Tight End Values

None of note

The All-in Group

Here are some players typically taken 1-30 picks into a draft that we’re all-in on for 2013.