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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #8
Published, April 30, 2013
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IN THIS ISSUE:

Off-Season Report #8: Post-Draft Stock Watch - 4/30

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Off-Season Report #9: Post-Draft Rookie Report
2013 Free Agency Tracker: We'll continue to track all the free agency signings online.
2013 Projections: We'll be rolling those out the second week of May

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2013 Post-Draft Stock Watch

by John Hansen, Publisher

Updated, 4/30/13

The NFL Draft has come and gone, and while it included some appealing results for this year’s rookies, the big story here is more about “wait and see.” Since this draft wasn’t exactly loaded with elite talents but had good depth, there are many players who could do well, yet it’s hard to go “all in” on more than maybe 1-2 options, if that.

But it’s early. This Post-Draft Stock Watch aims to re-access the fantasy landscape, post-draft. And I believe the following accomplishes that, so dig in.

Upgrades

Quarterbacks

Sam Bradford (Stl) – As I wrote before the draft, it was easy to assume the Rams would upgrade Bradford’s wide receiving corps, and they did so by adding the most explosive player at any position in the draft. Wideout Tavon Austin represents the shifting focus of NFL passing games and receivers in terms of his versatility and how dangerous he is with the ball in his hands and near the line of scrimmage. That’s good news for the very capable Bradford, who this off-season lost his go-to guy who, like Austin, is primarily a slot receiver (although Danny Amendola did play outside some in 2012). Amendola caught 15 balls in a game last year, so there’s obviously production to be had on the Rams and with Bradford. I’m not sure Austin can produce like Amendola did when healthy last year, but he absolutely has a chance to give the team more firepower and production, and he probably has more upside while playing a somewhat different role. In addition, the Rams added another wideout in Stedman Bailey, who could be a great fit and replacement for the departed Brandon Gibson. Incredibly productive in college (114/1622/25), Bailey is a great route-runner with great hands, so he could be a nice possession guy for them. I’ve been pretty adamant that Bradford is the most underappreciated QB in the league right now, and if things go very well here quickly, that won’t be the case much longer. The receiving corps is young, but it’s now bursting with upside, with up to five playmakers at receiver now in Austin, Bailey, TE Jared Cook, and WRs Chris Givens and Brian Quick (although Quick, while talented, is a work in progress to be kind). Even the Ram OL is looking pretty solid these days, so things are clearly looking up for Bradford. I’m not a big Brian Schottenheimer guy, but by moving up to take Austin, it’s pretty clear the Rams are looking to be more dynamic and creative on offense, so I would not be surprised if the talented Bradford is flirting with 30 TDs in 1-2 years (he did get a decent 22 last year). In fact, they may even emerge as a pass-happy offense that features a lot of spread concepts, which would definitely increase Bradford’s fantasy potential. It makes sense because Bradford has the tools of an elite QB, so you might as well utilize them fully. He’s now a very intriguing backup.

Tony Romo (Dal) – Dallas’ selection of Wisconsin G/C Travis Frederick with the 31^st pick of the draft was viewed as a major reach by many pundits. But the fact is Dallas’ OL was dreadful inside last year, so it fills a big need, especially since Frederick can play center or guard. Romo has great mobility, so he can get by if he’s getting less-than-stellar protection on the edges. But if they’re a sieve inside, as they were at times last year, then it’s going to be a big problem, so I view this pick as benefiting Romo immediately. And it was a bit of a surprise to see them address the skill positions aggressively on Day Two of the draft, but it is definitely great news for Romo. By adding talented TE Gavin Escobar and WR Terrance Williams, the Cowboys are pretty loaded at receiver. Escobar has great size and hands, so he could at least be a viable red-zone option in 2013, and he will likely carve out a big enough role to contribute some this year, as they look to diversify their offense. As for Williams, he looks like the eventual replacement for Miles Austin, whose career has been in a downward spiral, due mostly to injuries but also inconsistency. For 2013, he’ll likely end up as the #3, which was a great spot for Laurent Robinson a couple of years ago. Williams is very talented and could eventually grow into a #1 WR role, but in Dallas he will merely be their #2 sometime in the future alongside Dez Bryant. With a new contract extension in hand, a very good schedule, and a lot of wealth at receiver, Romo once again looks like a very good value for fantasy.

Andy Dalton (Cin) – I believe, through two seasons, we already know what Dalton is. He can play in this league at a relatively high level and is more than a “game manager,” but he clearly needs difference-makers around him because he’s not exactly going to make players better the way a Tom Brady or Drew Brees can. He has a special talent in WR A.J. Green, who can make plays all over the field, especially downfield, but it was evident last year that Dalton needed more help. After a strong 2+ months that saw him rank in the top-10 for fantasy through Week Twelve in 2012, Dalton came crashing down to earth the final five weeks of the season, ranking as only the 28^th QB over that span (and that ranking was helped by 2 rushing TDs) with 4 TDs and 5 INTs. I did like the emergence of Mohamed Sanu later in the season last year, and his physical presence clearly helped Dalton, but TE Jermaine Gresham’s 2012 season left me a little flat and wanting more. Enter TE Tyler Eifert, who was clearly the top prospect at his position in this draft. Eifert plays a lot like a wideout, which says a lot about his athleticism and movement. In fact, he played at wide quite a bit in college and even ran vertical routes while split out wide, which is something Gresham hasn’t shown he can do. Gresham is still their “starter,” but the pair should complement each other well, with Gresham more of an “old school” TE and Eifert a movable “joker.” Dalton now has another dynamic playmaker at his disposal, and given Eifert’s good hands and hand/eye coordination and ability to catch a lot of passes while in the air, Dalton now has another very good red-zone threat. They also added a WR in Cobi Hamilton who has a chance to stick in the pros. In addition, Dalton should also have a dynamic receiving threat out of the backfield in 2^nd-round pick Giovani Bernard, which could definitely help the QB’s fantasy fortunes. Dalton’s still only a fantasy backup, and I am a little concerned about OC Jay Gruden taking full advantage of Eifert’s and Bernard’s unique talents, but there’s no question they will help Dalton’s fantasy potential.

Jay Cutler (Chi) – I don’t want to go overstate the addition of G Kyle Long with the 20^th pick of the draft, but you do have to appreciate how they are seemingly doing everything they can to shore up an OL that has been quite sieve-like during Cutler’s tenure as a Bear. It wasn’t horrendous last year, but it wasn’t very good, and they have added at least two and possibly three new starters in Long, solid LT Jermon Bushrod (who they overpaid for), and G Matt Slauson. If former #1 pick Gabe Carimi can play well at G, then Cutler’s protection just might be pretty good this year. They’re not out of the woods just yet and have a lot to prove, but the vibes continue to be positive for Cutler under new head coach and offensive guru Marc Trestman.

Christian Ponder (Min) – I’m one of the few who hasn’t yet given up on Ponder and I still believe he can be a very solid player. I did watch a very uneven season unfold in 2012, but I also watched him play very well early in the season and in a huge Week Seventeen game against a playoff team in the Packers to ensure a playoff berth – and without star WR Percy Harvin. Ponder will always benefit from playing with the best back in the league in Adrian Peterson, and their OL is above-average, thanks in large part to last year’s #1 pick (4^th overall) LT Matt Kalil. The addition of wideout Cordarrelle Patterson may not pay large dividends immediately, but it will help. Patterson has some similarities to Harvin in that he’s a wideout with good size and can be very dangerous with the ball in his hands. Because he’s considered raw as a route-runner and not as dangerous on the field without the ball in his hands, his usage this year may be a little gimmicky, but they will absolutely look to him to give their passing game a boost. Patterson should benefit from being mentored by Greg Jennings, who is the personification of professionalism on and off the field, and Patterson should offer some relief for Jennings, since the rookie will have to be accounted for. We can’t say Ponder’s stock soaring due to this addition, but it helps for 2013, and Patterson could be a huge factor for Ponder’s success in the coming years.

Running Backs

Chris Ivory (NYJ) – He’s an upgrade, and he’s the most talented back on the team right now, though Mike Goodson could give him a run for his money there due to his versatility. Ivory is very productive on a per-touch basis, but due in part to his rough playing style, injuries continue to be a problem. That’s especially disconcerting because of his minimal touches. Ivory ran 40 times for 217 yards and 2 TDs (5.4 YPC), but due to his limited receiving ability, caught just 2 passes to finish 45^th at 5.9 FPG. Ivory has shown some serious flashes as a tough, violent runner who can be explosive and occasionally break one, but the sample size has been too small to decide if he can truly handle a bigger role, especially with his injury issues. And again he offers very little in the passing game. I’d give him an excellent chance to carve out at least a fairly substantial role here, but this does look like it could be a somewhat ugly (or downright ugly) committee, so I don’t think Ivory should be a hot commodity in the earlier rounds. He looks like a 9^th- or 10^th-round pick in a 10 or 12-team league.

LeSean McCoy and Bryce Brown (Phi) – The Eagles want to run off a lot of plays every week under new head coach Chip Kelly, and many of those plays will be running plays, so both of these guys will be very busy. McCoy is obviously the main guy, but there should be ample work available for the talented Brown, as long as he doesn’t put the ball on the ground as he did far too often in his rookie 2012 season. Both guys can run inside, but both guys can also get to the perimeter, especially McCoy, and the addition of the freakish T Lane Johnson could mean Philly has by far the most athletic and talented bookends in the league, assuming Jason Peters is close to 100%. This isn’t an urgent upgrade, but that addition can’t be bad news for both.

Wide Receivers

Greg Jennings (Min) – The Vikings were extremely thin at WR even after they locked up Jennings to his five-year deal in March. However, Minnesota made sure to get another weapon for QB Christian Ponder during Thursday’s draft by moving four picks (a 2^nd-, 3^rd-, 4^th-, and 7^th-round picks) to select Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson. While strengthening the Vikings’ bottom line, the selection of Patterson will also take some of the burden (and perhaps double teams) off Jennings next season. Jennings will still be the most feared WR for the Vikings, but Patterson should scare defenses enough to draw some attention away from him. Patterson is a raw route runner who is at the top of his game improvising with the ball in hands, so he could be used as the Vikings’ new Percy Harvin, with a lot of quick pass plays around the line of scrimmage. With Patterson seeing time in the slot, Jennings should be freed up to play more on the outside and to make some big plays downfield.

Tommy Streeter (Bal) – The Ravens did draft a WR of note in the intriguing Aaron Mellette, but he could be a small school (Elon) project who will need some time. They didn’t invest too much in the position (Mellette was a late 7^th-round pick), and they are pretty darn thin at the position, which tells me they have plans for 2012’s 6^th-round pick out of Miami. Streeter was considered very raw last year, and he didn’t record a catch. But they were pleased with his development in practice over the course of the season. He has the physical tools – he’s 6’5” and ran a 4.4 40 – to be very impactful, so Streeter is officially moving up in the world and is on the radar.

Tight Ends

Jordan Cameron (Cle) – I asked head coach Rob Chudzinski about Cameron at the Combine, and he said that he liked him and his potential, but that he has to really see him up close to get a real gauge, and that evaluation process is just beginning. However, teams do sometimes tell us what their plans are by the moves they make or do not make, and they opted not to sign free agent Fred Davis or anyone else of note other than two low-end guys in Kellen Davis and Gary Barnidge. So the draft was a huge key for Cameron, and the good news for him is that they didn’t draft a TE. I have heard some whispers about how the new coaching staff isn’t that high on him, but they also don’t have much to go by, so for now, it’s best to view their moves (or lack of moves to address the position) as our best indicator. Reports out of Cleveland heading into the draft had the Browns already planning on starting Cameron, and that appears to be the case.

Dennis Pitta (Bal) – In 15 games last year, Pitta posted 61/669/7 on 91 targets (11.0 YPC, 67.0%), ranking 7^th among TEs, with 7.3 FPG. Although he was involved early, Pitta’s game really took off in Week Ten, a span after which he ranked 3^rd among TEs, with 9.4 FPG. Pitta’s involvement in the offense was a big key to the Ravens’ run to the Super Bowl because he gave Flacco a reliable intermediate target outside of Anquan Boldin. Boldin is obviously gone, and the Ravens haven’t done much to replace him and only took small-school prospect Aaron Mellette in the draft. So it appears as if Pitta is going to be a huge part of their passing game. When the team drafted both Pitta and Ed Dickson in 2010, Dickson was supposed to be the athletic move guy with the upside, but it’s been Pitta who has emerged as a reliable option and playmaker for his good friend Joe Flacco. Flacco can obviously play, and in their fourth season together, we could see a full emergence from the 6’6” Pitta, who is sneaky athletic. I’m thinking right now that he could be the best value on the TE board in 2013.

Place Kicker

None of note

Downgrades

Quarterbacks

Mark Sanchez (NYJ) – Uh, do I really need to even break this down? Sanchez’ career has been on a downward spiral for a couple of years now. The best way to sum up what the drafting of QB Geno Smith means to Sanchez is to say the main reason Sanchez might still be on the Jet roster in 2013 is because the team would have to eat too much money to release him. Clearly, with a new GM in town, Sanchez’ days in New York are numbered, if not over. They can’t really trade him, so while he might be on the opening day roster and might even be the Week One starter, and it’s only a matter of time until the rookie Smith plays. Obviously, Sanchez is off the grid for 2013 fantasy drafts, and his long-term future is in serious peril unless he gets very lucky and finds another situation that is ideal.

Blaine Gabbert (QB, Jac) – Well, the Jags didn’t draft a QB and they did use the 2^nd pick in the draft on T Luke Joeckel, who will greatly help the team in pass protection. Joeckel will likely play RT with Eugene Monroe at LT, and the Colts could actually have a very solid due on the edges, which will definitely give Gabbert a better chance to succeed than he’s had, as Jacksonville gave up the third-most sacks in the league last season. He’s hardly a lock, and veteran Chad Henne will challenge him, plus I like undrafted free agent Matt Scott as an appealing long-term project. But for 2013, Gabbert should be given every chance to be the guy. They had a pretty good draft and their receiving corps is decent, so for now Gabbert is holding was steady. Of course, I used the word “was” because his #1 WR in Justin Blackmon is expected to be suspended for the first four games of the season. That’s a huge blow for Gabbert, whose season could quickly spiral downward without one of his top playmakers.

Nick Foles (Phi) – No matter how you slice it, the drafting of Matt Barkley was an indictment for Foles, who is only in his second year. It’s a bigger slap in the face because Barkley is more similar to Foles than the type of QB we all thought Chip Kelley wanted (a very mobile one). Kelly has said that he doesn’t need to have a mobile QB, which in theory could help Foles stay in this competition. But Kelly drafted Barkley and inherited Foles, which is a big key here. We’ll see what happens here and if Foles is traded, but for now the arrow is pointing downward.

Running Backs

Alex Green and James Starks (GB) – I liked Green as a deep sleeper last year and felt he would eventually get an opportunity to show what he can do. He did get that opportunity, but the timing was not great, since he was kind of thrown into the fire and might not have been fully recovered from the ACL he suffered the year before. And now he looks like yet another example of how NFL players on the fringe of a prominent role don’t get many opportunities and need to take advantage of any they get. Green certainly didn’t take advantage of his opportunity last year, and now the Packers have drafted the top two RBs on our pre-draft board in Eddie Lacey and Jonathan Franklin. So Green’s value plummets, and he might never again get an opportunity, since both Lacey and Franklin are better than he, and that’s even if Green’s 100%. As for Starks, he’s on the trade block, but it’s highly unlikely that any team will give up even a 7^th-round pick for him, so it’s likely over for him as well. Really, the only incumbent here with a chance is UFA DuJuan Harris, who did a really nice job and took over the #1 spot down the stretch in 2012.

Jonathan Dwyer (Pit) – It was clear that Dwyer’s value was going to take a hit after the draft, and it took a pretty huge one on the draft’s second day. Not only did the team sign UFA LaRod-Stephens Howling, who in theory is a solid changeup and 3^rd-down back, but they drafted Le'Veon Bell, a 20-year old workhorse who handled a massive workload last year at Michigan State (382 carries). But he also shows surprising athleticism and receiving ability, and his blocking is considered good. The Steelers are coming off their second-worst rushing season (1,537 yards) since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978, and they clearly viewed an upgrade as one of their main priorities in the draft. With Isaac Redman also on the roster, Dwyer looks pretty worthless unless Bell is injured or struggles. And that’s assuming Dwyer is on the opening day roster, since they would like to move him if possible.

Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno (Den) – Just as we suspected, the Broncos used an early pick on a back, and it was the ultra-productive and durable Montee Ball. One of the NCAA’s most prolific RBs of all time, they likely picked Ball for two reasons: production and durability. The durability is something he has over Eddie Lacey, who is more talented (it was a tough decision for them between Ball and Lacy). Whether that goes down as a good move or not remains to be seen, but the bottom line for these two is that their times in Denver could be running out. That’s especially true for the aged McGahee, who will be 32 this fall. McGahee and Moreno are still under contract, but at least McGahee is a long shot to make the final roster. Moreno could stick, but if the experienced Ball does well, Moreno should be buried on the depth chart. Moreno may actually be a tiny bit more talented, but Ball is simply more productive. Ball clearly has a great nose for the endzone, doesn’t leave the field because he’s an excellent pass-protector, and he can catch the ball well. Ball has average size (5’10”, 214 pounds) and average speed, but he has some fluidity to him, and he’s a good fit for the Bronco running scheme, where you don’t have to have special traits to excel at RB.

Bilal Powell and Mike Goodson (NYJ) – The Jets pulled off the deal to acquire former Saint Chris Ivory. Ivory is still young, and he’s shown very good power and flashes of physical dominance when he’s gotten the chance. He averages over 5.0 YPC on his 252 career carries in three years. Ivory runs angry, inviting contact and barreling over defenders, and he has deceptive deep speed. He doesn’t have a whole lot of side-to-side movement, and he’s basically nonexistent in the passing game (only 3 career receptions). But for what he does, he does it damn well. That is, when he’s on the field. That physical running style had led to numerous injuries, so he might be best cast as a rotational back. His opportunities will increase on the Jets, though, and at Powell and Goodson’s expense. If Ivory is able to stay healthy, he could be very serviceable, with 13-15 carries a game, but this looks like an ugly RBBC right now. His addition hurts Powell more than the versatile and speedy Goodson, but both backs take a hit here.

Roy Helu and Evan Royster (Was) – We rarely know what Mike Shanahan is thinking in his backfield, but we at least this year know Alfred Morris is the guy. However, the situation behind him got a lot more interesting in the draft, since the Redskins took not one but two RBs. In 5^th rounder Chris Thompson, Shanahan has a back who could be a viable 3^rd-down and changeup option, since he’s versatile, elusive, and dangerous in the open field (although injuries are a big concern). That pickup isn’t good news for Helu, but it is early in the game. In In 7^th rounder Jawan Jamison, the Redskins likely couldn’t pass on a player they thought would go much higher in the draft. Jamison could potentially be the long-term backup to Morris, since he’s a tough, low-to-the-ground runner who can also catch the ball and compares to another former Rutgers player in Ray Rice. Again, it’s very early, and Helu and Royster are certainly serviceable (especially Helu), but if you own either in a keeper or dynasty league, both appear to be shakier holds these days.

Wide Receivers

Donald Jones (NE) – I’m a long way from feeling good about Aaron Dobson (pick 59 overall) playing over Jones at the split end position in the Patriot offense, especially since Dobson is considered a little raw and the Patriot’s history of drafting quality wideouts is poor. But if the Pats focus on just that position with Dobson and don’t ask him to learn the other spots, that would help speed up his development, and he certainly does have a lot of talent. The Pats appear to be going bigger at WR, and Dobson has good size at 6’2.5” but again it’s very early. For now, I’ll downgrade Jones based on this pickup. They also took the intriguing Josh Boyce in the 4^th round, but Dobson might already be the favorite to replace Brandon Lloyd.

Nate Washington (Ten) – I thought Washington was very undervalued last year, but it turned out that he wasn’t at all, as the offense struggled greatly most of the year with QB Jake Locker. Washington’s a really solid player, but he’s hardly a stud, and he’s only as good as the QB throwing him the ball. There have been some rumblings this off-season that either Damien Williams or even Washington might be on his way out of Tennessee, at least by next year, and the bold move to draft WR Justin Hunter (bold because they had more pressing needs) certainly does little to help either. It’s not great news for Kenny Britt, too, since Hunter should be viewed as a future starter along with Kendall Wright. One more misstep for Britt, and he’s definitely gone now. Hunter is not yet a complete receiver and drops too many passes, but he’s extremely talented and is a 2^nd-round pick, so you’d think they’ll have designs on getting him on the field. Among with Hunter, Britt, Wright, and Washington there’s a ton of talent at WR in Tennessee. But it might be a moot point if the QB can’t do better than his career completion percentage of 54%, which is pathetic. Bottom line, based on talent, role, and upside, Washington is probably hurt the most by the Hunter addition.

Justin Blackmon (Jac) – It’s not draft-related, but the NFL is expected to suspend Blackmon for the first four games of the season for violating the NFL's substance-abuse policy (his second time in the pros, and third overall). While Blackmon sounded very remorseful on Tuesday, it’s still incredibly disappointing for him and the team. According to ESPN, the Jags could be off the hook for a lot of his contract due to this recent infraction, but it sounds like he’s going to stick around. Without him early on, things could get ugly for Blaine Gabbert, who’s very shakyto begin with. This is a bad sign for a guy who we thought previously learned his lesson.

Tight Ends

Jermaine Gresham (Cin) – Gresham in 2012 was, for lack of a better alternative, our “breakout” TE of 2012. We ranked him 10^th at TE, with 113 projected points (non-PPR) and Gresham finished 10^th with 104 points. Yet he left us wanting more and very early in the season when he was still dealing with a knee issue, his body language and production weren’t good (granted, that was only two games). At this point, it’s fair to say he’s never going to be a star, and he’s more “old school” than he is new-age, as he has failed to show much big-play ability in his three seasons (a mediocre 10.4 yards per catch in his career). OC Jon Gruden still considers Gresham as the team’s “starting TE,” so we can’t just assume Gresham is dead for fantasy due to the drafting of TE Tyler Eifert. That pick was a football decision the team made to make their team better, and there is room for both players in the offense, since, in theory, the two TEs will complement each other well. But while Eifert may be brought along somewhat slowly and could be used as a flexed out receiver a lot, the bottom line is Gresham’s margin for error isn’t very large, and it’s been minimized due to the addition of Eifert. It’s easy to tab Gresham as a downgrade because of the Eifert pick, and considering Gresham’s upside wasn’t that great to begin with, it’s hard to feel good about him going forward, unless you’re talking about a fantasy backup, so I’m going to do it (downgrade him) anyway.

Brent Celek (Phi) – The good news is, by drafting Zach Ertz in the 2^nd round (pick 35 overall), Eagle head coach Chip Kelly confirmed that the TE will be a big part of his offense. The bad news is they drafted Ertz, who caught 11 balls for 106 yards and a game-tying TD against Kelly in college last year. Celek will still be the starter, but with Ertz in the mix and former Texan James Casey, a quality player, also very much in play for the targets in the passing game, there might not be enough production left over to appease Celek owners – and that’s even if they feature TE extensively.

Place Kickers

Rian Lindell (Buf) – It’s certainly not a big story in fantasy, but the Bills drafted Dustin Hopkins, one of college’s top kickers, which spells doom for the aged veteran Lindell. The Bills even have his old holder (Shawn Powell) on the roster, so Lindell is likely out of a job.

Dan Carpenter (Mia) – It was not a good weekend for AFC kickers, as the Bills and Dolphins selected two of the draft’s top kickers. Carpenter will likely compete with Caleb Sturgis, but when a team uses a draft pick on a kicker, it usually means that kicker is their guy. Carpenter also has a high salary, so he’s likely gone.

Holding Steady

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) – There was actually some talk that 4^th-round pick Quinton Patton had a chance to be drafted in the 1^st or 2^nd round, which goes to show how his stock was climbing leading up to the draft, thanks in large part to a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. Patten may not have the vertical speed the 49ers can use, but he was incredibly productive in a spread offense (104/1392/13) for Louisiana Tech last year, and he looks like a player. He had only 1 drop last year on 158 targets, for example, and he did make explosive plays in college. He’ll merely provide depth in 2013, but that was needed here, so his addition is solid news for Kaepernick. In addition, the 49ers needed to replace TE Delanie Walker, and they got a very intriguing athletic in Vance McDonald, who also climbed up draft boards the last 2-3 months. His blocking needs work, but he’s a very hard worker who will do whatever it takes to excel, and he’s big and strong enough to contribute as a blocker. The 49ers clearly liked his versatility, and he can line up all over the place – he played a ton in the slot in college – and he can even take handoffs in the read-option, as he did in college. McDonald isn’t blessed with high-end speed, but he’s really good at working the seam and the intermediate area and gaining yards after the catch. He’s more athletic than given credit for, and he has very good receiving ability, so he has a chance to step right into a fairly prominent role, if not replace Walker right away. Kaepernick may not get a ton of production out of these two rookies this year, but his supporting cast did get better via the draft.

Carson Palmer (QB, Ari) – Well, a new LT was not meant to be for the Cards, but they did at least get a potentially elite player for the offensive line in athletic G Jonathan Cooper. The Cardinals also added the versatile and speedy Ryan Swope at wideout, and he could be a sleeper. Although he’s had some concussion problems that likely caused him to fall a little in the draft (6^th rounder, could have been a 2^nd or 3^rd round pick), he brings more versatility to their receiving corps, since he could play in the slot and also outside. He ran a very surprising 4.32 40 at the combine, so he has good speed. For what it’s worth, the Cards also added a couple of interesting players at RB in Stepfan Taylor, who is very reliable and productive but doesn’t move very well, and Andre Ellington, who could be a nice changeup runner right away. The Cardinals beefed up the interior of their OL later in the draft with the selection of G Earl Watford in the 4^th round, but there still remain some major questions about their line. They will get T Levi Brown back this year, but the state of their line will be one of the top stories to follow for Palmer and this entire offense.

Matt Schaub (QB, Hou) – I’ll give him a hold steady because the club used it’s #1 pick on a guy in DeAndre Hopkins who should contribute immediately and give them the most talent they’ve had opposite Andre Johnson in a long time. But Schaub’s lost a lot of his fantasy appeal, and that won’t likely change, considering the nature of their offense and what is still a shaky receiving corps overall. If aged veteran Owen Daniels at TE, for example, goes down, they’re in trouble (they lost the veteran presence of James Casey). They love WR DeVier Posey, but he’s coming off an Achilles injury and might not be ready for the season, so it’s down to Lestar Jean and the promising Keshawn Martin. This receiving corps from top-to-bottom is probably still in the bottom third of the league. But at least it’s not as thin now with Hopkins, who will start from Day One and will also give them some flexibility with the ability to play outside and in the slot.

Philip Rivers (QB, SD) – Rivers and the Chargers are hardly out of the woods when it comes to their wretched OL, the addition of #1 pick D.J. Fluker does help. Fluker is expected to stay at RT, where he played in college, because he doesn’t have LT mobility. His greatest strength as run blocker, and he does have the versatility to play G if need be. The Chargers still need major help at LT- they are looking right now as Bryant McKinnie – but other than trading up to the top 5 to get one of the stud LT prospects, the Chargers tried to help out this line. And of course, they added wideout Keenan Allen, who’s talented enough to quickly catapult himself into their #1 WR role (not exactly this year), so Rivers’ receiving corps did also get better.

Alex Smith (QB, KC) – The Chiefs didn’t add a major impact skill player, but they did the next best thing for Smith by adding a blue-chipper to help protect him and help their offense in Eric Fisher. The Chiefs love his athleticism and also his versatility, which will both come in handy. If T Brandon Albert is on the roster in 2013, and that now looks likely, then the KC line could be one of the better groups in the league this year. And the bottom line is that Smith isn’t exactly a player who makes others around him better and needs to be surrounded by talent, and the talent around him just got better. That includes the selection of TE Travis Kelce, a potentially complete player at this position. That could be an important pick because starter Tony Moeaki’s knee is still an issue and after he underwent a procedure on it this spring, there are serious concerns about him and his health.

Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pit) – I view the addition of Le’Veon Bell as a positive for Big Ben. The Steeler OL may actually be their team strength this year if finally healthy, and I really think the Steelers want to commit to one back, and Bell can be that back. At this point, and with this team, a strong commitment to the running game and effective running should be the best thing for Roethlisberger, who will likely be without his go-to guy Heath Miller early in the season (knee) and will be breaking in a revamped receiving corps featuring rookie WR Markus Wheaton (Round 3 - pick 79 overall). The hope is Wheaton will be the next Mike Wallace, and I wouldn’t put it past the Steelers for him being just that, since their track record at the position is good. Roethlisberger is merely a serviceable backup at this point, but he’s still capable of slipping in a TD total in the upper 20s, and a strong running game at this point might be his best chance to.

Brandon Weeden (QB, Cle) – The Browns did little to help Weeden in the draft, but they did add slot receiver Davone Bess, whose experience will be welcomed for a young receiving corps. But the key (and obvious) point is that they didn’t draft a QB to compete with Weeden. Weeden certainly isn’t out of the woods for the long-term, but for 2013 he needs to beat out only the sluggish Jason Campbell, which shouldn’t be too hard. Weeden isn’t going to be an appealing fantasy pick, but he’s a good fit for the offense, and Norv Turner is a great QB coach, so I would expect improvement in 2013 (and I didn’t think he was that bad in 2012, all things considered). He’s holding steady as a top-30 QB in 2013.

Jake Locker (QB, Ten) – It appears as if we’re back to looking at Locker’s supporting cast at receiver and thinking that it’s really good. We thought that last year, but it didn’t exactly work out for the erratic Locker, who one could argue took a step back in his sophomore campaign. In his defense, there was a coordinator change midseason, and he had a terrible running game behind him for much of the first half of the season. He also had a brutal defense, and that, coupled with the poor running game, made it impossible for him to stay on schedule and play ahead of the downs, so things were mostly ugly (he had a few nice games for fantasy). The Titans really beefed up their OL this off-season, and they added a sustainer at RB in Shonn Greene, so Locker should get more support this year. They also added talented wideout Justin Hunter, so once again Locker’s receiving corps is loaded with talent. This is a huge season for Locker, and while I love his tools and I’m rooting for him, I learned last year not to rely on a QB who can’t even average a 55% completion percentage in the pros. Still, he should have a much better chance to excel this year than last.

Chris Johnson (RB, Ten) – Soon after the Titans’ pick of Alabama guard Chance Warmack in the first round of the draft, Johnson tweeted out “THANK GOD,” making his feelings on locking down another strong interior lineman known. That means the Titans added the best free-agent guard (Andy Levitre) and arguably the best rookie guard (Warmack) in the same off-season, strengthening an interior that last year included the likes of Deuce Lutui, Leroy Harris, and a shell of the player who was once Steve Hutchinson. It’s fair to upgrade Johnson, but it’s also not a stretch to say the writing could be on the wall for Johnson. Although incredibly athletic for his size, Warmack is more of a traditional, road-grading type at the guard position. That’s opposed to Jonathan Cooper, who went #7 overall to the Cardinals, who theoretically would have been a better fit for the Titans’ stretch plays on which Johnson has had so much success in the past. Levitre, Warmack, and center Fernando Velasco will create holes up the middle for Johnson (they also added a promising prospect at C in Brian Schwenke, so their depth is solid). But if he doesn’t hit those between-the-tackles lanes better than he has lately, his time in Tennessee could be running thin. Johnson has often called out his line for not helping him, and last year, his criticisms were defensible. This season, the heat will be on him, especially with a viable backup in Shonn Greene in town. There are no more excuses for Johnson now, and there is viable competition for carries. If he doesn’t produce, the team will start pulling back from their usage of him.

Marshawn Lynch (RB, Sea) – Although #2 pick Christine Michael is actually more physically gifted than Lynch, the veteran shouldn’t have much to worry about in terms of getting his touches, at least for 2013. Michael had arguably the best Combine of any RB prospect, including running a 4.54-second 40-time while measuring in at 5’10”, 220 pounds. He also impressed at the East-West Shrine game. He’s sizable and powerfully built, but he’s also light on his feet and is able to use his speed to get through holes quickly and pick up yardage. He’s pretty quick and fairly explosive for a bigger back. He could have been the most talented back in this draft, but the reason he wasn’t talked about more is because he has some major baggage. Although Lynch has had some off-field issues, no one has ever questioned his work ethic or attitude, yet that is a big concern with Michael, who isn’t the easiest player to coach up, and who missed two interviews at the Combine because he slept in, showing that he might still have issues. Seattle was likely feeling frisky after a successful off-season and simply went with the best player on their board. Lynch is under contract through 2015, but he has handled a large workload since his rookie 2007 season, and while he’s showing zero signs of slowing down, that could change in 1-2 years, and Seattle may have found its replacement (they also have Robert Turbin). As for 6^th round pick, RB Spencer Ware from LSU, he’s another bigger back, and he could be viewed as a potential FB going forward. At least for 2013, Lynch has nothing to worry about.

Maurice Jones-Drew (RB, Jac) – While Titan RB Chris Johnson may have been the happiest running back on Thursday night after G Chance Warmack’s selection MJD certainly had to be excited about the addition of T Luke Joeckel. The Texas A&M tackle will bring the most help in pass protection, but Joeckel, who will likely play right tackle with Eugene Monroe at left tackle, will also improve the run blocking for Jones-Drew. RT was a disaster for the Jaguars last season, with Cameron Bradfield and Guy Whimper manning the spot, so MJD should have better chance at some running lanes, as long as he can stay healthy this season. The Jags also are shifting more to a zone blocking this season, and Joeckel has good speed, so his quickness and agility should be a good fit. And ultimately, protecting whoever is starting at QB well will go a long way toward giving Jones-Drew the support he needs in the final year of his contract. Of course, the QB is expected to be without his #1 WR in Justin Blackmon, which is certainly bad news for MJD.

Jamaal Charles (RB, KC) – The Chiefs were actually pretty thin at RB behind Charles, and while they did draft Arkansas’ Knile Davis a little higher than expected (96^th overall), Charles should not have to worry about others taking a significant number of touches away. Sure, Davis is very talented and could be a nice power alternative to Charles who also has explosiveness. But he also has major fumbling and durability issues, so the pickup was a risky one for KC. Dexter McCluster will get touches, but Charles is going to be a major foundation of the offense, and that’s an offense that will get a boost by the addition of athletic T Eric Fisher, the #1 overall pick of the draft. They also still have T Branden Albert, so for now the OL looks good. Charles looks like a very worthy #1 pick and we will, for example, gladly rank him well over Chris Johnson.

Frank Gore (RB, SF) – The 49ers seem to just operate better than most franchises. All their moves make perfect sense, as the decision to draft mega-talent Marcus Lattimore does. The 49ers are loaded at RB right now, so they don’t even need Lattimore to be in the mix this year. I wouldn’t even be surprised, if he wound up being 100% at some point this year, is he still wouldn’t play. The point is, it’s a worthy gamble because if Lattimore is back in 1-2 years, they have a special back, and it’ll be right when Gore is ready to ride off into the sunset. So Gore’s stock is fine. He’s going to share the ball a little more than he’s used to, but he’s still a beast. As an aside, I actually saw him in person earlier this year in the division playoffs for the first time, and I was pretty blown away by his physical running style and juice.

Isaiah Pead and Daryl Richardson (RBs, Stl) – I’ll say for now these two are “holding steady” even with the drafting of RB Zac Stacey in the 5^th round. That’s not a high pick, so it’s something of an endorsement for Pead and Richardson, but we could be looking at a backfield that splits the workload up among three different backs, since Stacey brings more bulk to the position, so he could carve a role as at least a short-yardage and/or goal line back. This backfield will sort itself out later this year, but for now, these two are hanging in there in terms of being viable for fantasy, which they both probably will be all season. The question to focus on here is what roles will Pead and Richardson have in this offense this year? There has been some talk of Pead starting, yet the speedy Richardson did a solid job running inside last year for a guy who isn’t a typical interior runner, so we’ll see.

Lamar Miller (RB, Mia) – All indications continue to be that Miller is the guy for the Dolphins. If anything, the drafting of Mike Gillislee in the 5^th round (164 overall) looks like an indictment on Daniel Thomas, since Gillislee is more of a north-south who lacks special qualities. There is a lot of work to be done on the OL still, and that’s not good, but the offense overall should be a lot better, thanks to all of their receiving additions. And again, Miller continues to be the favorite to be their lead back.

Ryan Mathews (RB, SD) – Hey, I can only call them the way I see them, and right now I don’t see the Chargers investing much on a RB alternative in free agency or the draft. That has to be something of an endorsement for Mathews even if it’s not necessarily intended. Now they did add former Patriot Danny Woodhead, and they’ve even reportedly talked to LaDainian Tomlinson about coming back (he will not). But I don’t think Woodhead is a good alternative behind a shaky OL, and while they did also being fossil Ronnie Brown back, I thought for sure they’d bring in a back “of note,” and I don’t think they have. GM Tom Telesco said at the Combine that he is a fan of a timeshare in his backfield, but right now you have to think a healthy Mathews can get a large workload once again, despite his ugly 2012 season and the new regime in San Diego. But I have not forgotten that Ahmad Bradshaw is still out there and has recently been cleared to play (again).

David Wilson and Andre Brown (NYG) – I’m going to assume that 7^th round pick Michael Cox, the only UMass player drafted, is going to be a factor in this backfield. So while no one expected the Giants to invest heavily in a back via the draft, they didn’t. They also didn’t add anyone at the position in free agency, so these two guys are set to battle it out for playing time in 2013.

Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Ari) – Not that RB was considered a big need for the Cardinals, and Mendenhall has to prove this summer that he’s 100% and ready to rock and roll, but Arizona did use two picks on a pair of RBs in Stepfan Taylor (5^th round) and Andre Ellington (6^th round). Ellington went lower than expected, and while he’s a fairly well-rounded back, he projects best as a changeup and situational player. Taylor is very intriguing, since he was very productive, reliable, and versatile, but he does not move very well, which is a big concern as he heads to the next level. They do still have the talented Ryan Williams on the roster, but he obviously has a ton of injury concerns. His margin for error may not be large, but for now, the lead job is still Mendenhall’s to lose.

Vick Ballard (RB, Ind) – Rookie Kerwynn Williams looks like a terrific 3^rd-down and situational back who can offer a lot in the passing game along with the running game, but he shouldn’t be a big threat to Ballard, who is now, and has been since last December, their lead back. They do also still have Donald Brown, who is a threat, but the smart money should still be on Ballard to retain his spot atop the depth chart. The only player who could change that right now is Ahmad Bradshaw, and I have not heard a single whisper of the Colts being interested in him this year.

Chris Givens and Brian Quick (WRs, Stl) – With the Rams moving up in the draft to take WR Tavon Austin 8^th overall, QB Sam Bradford gets another versatile weapon in a receiving corps that already added TE Jared Cook to the mix this off-season. While the team was certainly high enough on Austin to trade up for him, we don’t think this really hurts the values of Givens and Quick. That’s because Givens and Quick are better suited to play on the outside, while Austin is a versatile, slot-type receiver, who can give the Rams some much needed explosion and dynamic ability in their receiving corps. Although he can be moved around the field (including out of the backfield), Austin lacks size, whereas Quick checks in at 6’5” and Givens, at 5’11”, was a solid downfield option last season. Austin should be considered a complement to Givens, Quick, and Cook in a receiving corps that could be a dangerous unit, especially if Bradford can put it all together in his second season under OC Brian Schottenheimer, as it will be the first time Bradford will be working with the same coordinator in consecutive years in the pros. While Quick didn’t get much of a chance to prove himself as a rookie, the departures of WRs Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson should allow him more opportunities in his second season. However, if he doesn’t step up this year, rookie Stedman Bailey might be able to fill a possession role for the Rams, so Quick is on notice. As for Givens, he should be able to build on his solid rookie campaign with both him and Austin providing Bradford with big-play options.

Brandon LaFell (WR, Car) – We’ll never know if the Panthers would have taken wideout Tavon Austin with the 14^th pick of the draft, but the real story here is that they didn’t draft a wideout, so LaFell should be set as a starter again in 2013. The team has added Domenik Hixon, who might be more talented than LaFell but has a lengthy injury history, and they also have Ted Ginn and David Gettis, but none of these guys should be real threats to LaFell. LaFell didn’t have a great 2012 season, but it wasn’t bad and he really didn’t do anything to lose his job, so with free agency essentially over and the draft in the rearview, LaFell is holding steady.

Rod Streater (Oak) – The Raiders really didn’t draft a wideout of note, and with Darrius Heyward-Bey gone, Streater looks like a significant member of the Raider passing attack. He’s not a lock to start, but given Jacoby Ford’s injury problems and ability to play in the slot, Streater is a good bet to play a lot this year. He did suffer a downgrade at QB with Carson Palmer out and Matt Flynn in, but at least Flynn’s not a stiff. Streater is also a legit deep sleeper this coming season.

Darrius Heyward-Bey (WR, Ind) – This was a pretty deep class for WRs, yet the Colts focused entirely on defense and the OL in the draft, so they did not add even a single wideout this past weekend. That ensures DHB will be, at worst, their third receiver.

Jason Witten (TE, Dal) – I like Gavin Escobar as a prospect, but other than stealing a few short TDs from Witten, I doubt he’ll be a big threat to Witten, at least this year. Keep in mind we now know that Martellus Bennett is a pretty good player, yet he languished in Big D for three years before moving on to the Giants. Witten is still QB Tony Romo’s “blanky,” so I wouldn’t be too concerned with the addition of the rookie TE.

We’ll See

Michael Vick (QB, Phi) – The Eagles are going to talk all about a QB competition this off-season, but ultimately it’s going to be a huge upset if it’s not Vick starting for the Birds Week One. That said, we hope Vick is anointed the guy quickly, so he can get the most reps he can in Chip Kelly’s new offense. Although Kelly has said you don’t need mobility to play in his offense, you’d think youngsters Nick Foles (if he’s not traded), rookie Matt Barkley, and also Dennis Dixon shouldn’t be real threat to Vick right now, but we’ll see. Also, Philly did add a nice TE threat in Zach Ertz, who could mesh very well with their other higher-end skill players, so there is plenty of talent for Vick to take advantage of if he’s the guy.

Matthew Stafford (QB, Det) – I viewed WR as their second biggest need in the draft, yet they really didn’t invest much in the position. They took wideout Corey Fuller, who’s a very talented guy. But he’s a track and field athlete who got a late start on football, and they used only a 6^th-round pick on him. So for now, I think it’s fair to say the Lion receiving corps is still dangerously thin. Granted, they have the best wideout in the league in Calvin Johnson, but there’s not much quality otherwise at this point. I love Nate Burleson, but if you’re relying on him at this stage, that’s pretty scary. There’s still work to be done in terms of this receiving corps, and an upgrade is still in order. It’s probably an unrealistic match, but you have to wonder if the Lions should be looking hard at veteran Brandon Lloyd right now.

Joe Flacco (QB, Bal) – The current poster boy for the disconnect between fantasy and reality, Flacco is a Super Bowl MVP – and he probably won a fantasy championship for like 9 people globally in 2012. His receiving corps was pretty thin with veteran Anquan Boldin, his go-to guy, and Boldin is gone. They’ve done nothing in free agency and added only the intriguing wideout Aaron Mellette, who could be a project coming from a small-school (Elon). The Ravens must have fairly big plans for 2012 draft pick Tommy Streeter, and he is very talented, but Flacco’s receiving corps does look quite shaky right now. So once again, he looks like a mediocre backup choice for fantasy.

Josh Freeman (QB, TB) – I’m sure HC Greg Schiano watched the 2011 tape of Freeman closely when he took the job, so Freeman’s uneven 2012 season was probably alarming to him because the QB once again saw his level of play slip as the ’12 season progressed. Acquiring a QB who could legitimately unseat Freeman in 2013 was unrealistic, so the Bucs did the next best thing by hedging their long-term bet on Freeman by using a 3^rd-round pick on a guy in Mike Glennon. Glennon looks like an insurance policy for 2013 and beyond. If Freeman struggles yet again in 2013, the final year of his rookie deal, then the Bucs will possibly have an alternative in Glennon, who will at least have a year under his belt on the team next year. Freeman’s character and work ethic are excellent, so we know he will work hard this year, and he’s clearly been put on notice with this pick. It’s also worth noting that their biggest needs on offense when the 2012 season ended were at TE and finding a viable slot receiver, preferably one with some speed. They added veterans Steven Smith and Kevin Ogletree, who could certainly help, but they’re not exactly exciting pickups, and right now they have nothing at TE after passing on the position in the draft. So Freeman’s supporting cast at receiver doesn’t look much better than it was last year.

Kevin Kolb (QB, Buf) – #1 pick EJ Manual has terrific physical tools, intelligience, and presence – but he’s much more project than he is NFL ready. That said, while there will likely be talk of QB competition with him in the mix this summer I’d be surprised if he played early as a rookie, and a #1 pick not playing much is rare these days. The pick made sense from the perspective that Manuel has arguably the most upside in the draft and the bulk and arm strength to handle some poor weather in Buffalo – and because they currently have the capable Kolb and Tarvaris Jackson on the roster. Kolb is hardly a lock and could lose his job to Jackson at some point, but despite reports to the contrary, I think he’s the favorite to open the season as the starter. His receiving corps is certainly deeper and more talented than it was going into the draft, as they added the very promising Robert Woods and the speedy Marquise Goodwin at wideout. Of course, if Kolb is terrible and/or they’re out of the playoff race, all bets are off and Manuel should get on the field. And by year two, Manuel should be set to start, similar to Colin Kaepernick for the 49ers in 2012.

DeMarco Murray (Dal) – I’ve learned over the years not to listen much to Jerry Jones, but he is the team’s owner and GM, so he certainly has some say. Jones has talked about 5^th-round pick Joseph Randle almost as a co-starter with Murray, which is certainly reason for concern if you’re a Murray fan. Most likely, Randle is merely the #2 who will get some work along with Murray, but that’s not too unusual these days. Randle is hardly a stud, but his game is similar to Murray’s in many ways, and he does everything well enough to not only be considered the clear backup here but also possibly a guy who works his way into a fairly active role alongside Murray, who obviously has durability issues. Randle isn’t particularly elusive or fast, but he can catch the ball pretty well, and he does have an eye for the endzone. If he’s not fumbling and works on his pass protection, he could be a threat to Murray, since he’s viewed as a comparable player and not a changeup runner (that would be Lance Dunbar still). Murray is still the guy and is more talented than Randle, but it’s understandable how the Cowboys want to protect themselves, should he suffer yet another injury. The best way to do that is to cut back a little on his workload, and they certainly could do that is Randle is deserving of playing time. I’m a little hesitant to list Murray as a downgrade, but it’s fair to argue that he is, so we’ll have to watch Randle closely this summer.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB, Cin) – Although I’m inclined to list Law Firm in the “Holding Steady” category because he won’t likely relinquish the starting job to Giovanni Bernard, the rookie is so intriguing that giving an endorsement to Green-Ellis does give me pause. Green-Ellis will certainly be the lead back, but I know head coach Marvin Lewis was looking for an active changeup and complement to Law Firm, but also someone who could potentially be more than that, and Bernard is that guy. He’s undersized and may not break many tackles in the NFL, and he’s had some injury issues, but he’s really dynamic and versatile. I do have some doubts about the Bengals and OC Jay Gruden utilizing him well enough, but Bernard can pass protect and has the potential to be a 50+ catch back right away. That is, assuming the Bengals use him well (they don’t usually throw much to their backs). Green-Ellis, at worst, will still be a guy who gets 15 carries a game and their goal-line carries, but the presence of Bernard could seriously disrupt his fantasy value. The other question in this backfield is how productive the rookie himself will be, and that won’t be answerable until later this summer.

Ronnie Hillman (RB, Den) – On one hand, the notion that Hillman could be more than an active complement and more of a lead took a big hit with the Broncos using a 2^nd-round pick on Wisconsin’s Montee Ball. On the other hand, while Ball can catch the ball pretty well, he doesn’t have good speed and elusiveness, and Hillman has good lateral quickness and an explosive element to his game, so there should be a role for him. It certainly looks like the Broncos will be heading into the 2013 season with Ball and Hillman as their top two backs, so while Hillman may not be much of a fantasy pick this year, he should get touches. The real question, other than how Ball assimilates himself in Denver, is whether or not Willis McGahee and/or Knowshon Moreno are still with the team. If Moreno, for example, is on the 2013 roster, then Hillman might be stuck as only an active complement, since Moreno has shown he can be very serviceable carrying the load here.

DuJuan Harris (RB, GB) – Harris finished the regular season strong and kept it going into the playoffs as their lead guy. He rushed for 47 yards and a TD on 17 carries and put up 5/53 receiving in the Wild Card Round, followed by 11/43/1 and 2/11 in the Divisional Round loss to the 49ers. I was at the combine this past February when Packer GM Ted Thompson was asked about Harris, and Thompson generally seemed to like Harris a lot. They may not have planned to draft UCLA’s Jonathan Franklin, but probably couldn’t pass on his potential and value, especially since #2 pick Eddie Lacey has injury concerns. A healthy Lacey should be the lead back (plus their goal line back and finisher), but it’s hard to envision the team asking Lacey to handle a large workload. That should leave a role open for either Harris or Franklin, and it’s fair to expect Franklin to get that not. He’s bigger and more talented than Harris, and he does everything well. Perhaps most important, Franklin is considered an excellent receiver and pass protector, so unless he has issues picking up the offense, you have to believe Harris’ fantasy potential took a big hit on draft weekend.

Rashad Jennings (RB, Oak) – For what it’s worth, I’m hardly sure rookie Latavius Murray (Round 6 - pick 181 overall) is ready to overtake a veteran like Jennings just yet, so Jennings for now remains the handcuff this year for Darren McFadden. Of course, we’ll have to see how Jennings looks this summer because he was dreadful last year and is lucky to still be in the league after that performance. And Murray is actually pretty darn intriguing (big and fast) and could excel in their power running scheme.

Miles Austin (WR, Dal) – While 3^rd-round pick Terrance Williams has no chance of beating Austin out for the #2 job and will likely settle in as their third receiver, assuming he can beat out Dwayne Harris, you do wonder about Austin’s future with the club now with Williams in the mix. Austin played in all 16 games this past year, but he continued to be dogged by lingering hamstring issues and also left Week Seventeen without a catch after suffering a high-ankle sprain. Austin finished 29^th among WRs, with 8.7 FPG, on 66 catches for 943 yards and 6 TDs on 115 targets (57.4% and 14.3 YPC), and those numbers were disappointing, considering the huge contract a couple of years ago. In fact, with Williams in the mix, you have to wonder if Austin will have to renegotiate the final four years and $30.5 million remaining on his deal to stay in the mix.

Steve Johnson (WR, Buf) – I think the Bills should take things slowly with rookie QB E.J. Manuel, and they still might. But the mere presence of a rookie #1 pick at QB should mean that any veteran on the roster’s hold on a starting job should be precarious. Kevin Kolb isn’t very good, so the concern here is that Manuel is forced into the starting lineup. I like Manuel, but I do find it hard to envision him doing well right away, so you have to be a little concerned about Johnson’s production. Veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick had his issues, but he at least got the ball to Johnson a lot.

Jarius Wright (WR, Min) – The Vikings clearly didn’t think Wright was the answer to fill in at Percy Harvin’s old role next season, so the team traded a boatload of picks (a 2nd-, 3rd, 4th-, and 7th-round pick) to move up to select Tennessee WR Cordarrelle Patterson. Wright should eventually fall behind Patterson on the team’s depth chart, as the rookie is bigger and more dynamic out of the slot than Wright. Yet Patterson is still a bit of a project at this point, so there is no guarantee that he’ll pick up the NFL game right away, so Wright still has an outside chance of contributing early next season if Patterson struggles. Patterson’s selection still doesn’t bode well for Wright, who is still a bit of a project himself and probably not an every-down receiver at this point in his career, but it’s still possible that Wright sees the field plenty in 2013.

Fred Davis (TE, Was) – Davis is coming off a very serious Achilles injury, and this off-season he signed only a one-year deal to return, so the Redskins could certainly use a developmental prospect. Davis is also a positive drug test away from a one-year suspension. They don’t have much behind him, so their drafting of athletic TE Jordan Reed made sense. Reed is a former QB/RB, and he’s raw, but he just could fit in here and do something his rookie season. In college he saw playing time as an in-line TE, as a receiver, as an H-back, and even as a RB, so he could have a small role in the gimmicky Redskin offense. Reed plays (and looks) like a wideout in the passing game, with speed and quickness to make defenders miss. He’s at his best with the ball in his hands, and he can even get pick up tough yardage when he needs to plow ahead, so he landed in a good spot as a moveable joker in an offense that is heavy on read-option concepts. He may not affect Davis’ production much, but his presence does make Davis look a little shakier as a fantasy pick.

Rob Housler (TE, Ari) – I’ve heard some rumblings that the Cards are a little disappointed in Housler, but it’s hard to judge him based on the last two years of ugly QB play. The Cards didn’t use an earlier pick on a TE, but they did add D.C. Jefferson out of Rutgers in the 7^th round. Jefferson is a physically gifted prospect, but he was very inconsistent in college, so it’s hard to envision him being a serious threat to Housler this year. Jefferson could be asked to block more initially.

David Ausberry (TE, Oak) – It’s hard to say for sure if the drafting of Nick Kasa (Round 6 - pick 172 overall) and Mychal Rivera (Round 6, pick 184 overall) is bad news for Ausberry in 2013, but it’s certainly not good news. Kasa and Rivera are hardly blue-chippers, but they are both intriguing enough prospects, and Kasa’s ability to block could get him on the field right away. Kasa is a former defensive lineman who moved to TE as a junior, so he’s still raw. Rivera lacks size, but he’s an athletic receiver who projects as a move guy in the NFL, or even an H-Back. Ausberry is a former WR and has the skillset to create mismatches when separated from the formation. With his year of experience in 2012 as an advantage, Ausberry could still be the guy to watch here for 2013, but he’s hardly someone to get excited about because he hasn’t put it together yet and now has some competition for snaps and targets.

FantasyGuru.com’s Joe Dolan, Matt Camp, and Tom Brolley contributed to this report

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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

FantasyGuru.com: Off-Season Report #8 (Post-Draft Stock Watch)

2013 Post-Draft Stock Watch

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