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FANTASYGURU.COM'S OFF-SEASON REPORT #3
Originally Published, March 1, 2013
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IN THIS ISSUE:
Off-Season Report #3: 2013 Free Agency Preview
PREVIOUS ISSUES:
- Off-Season Report #2: 2013's Coaching Changes
- Off-Season Report #1: 2012's Lessons Learned
UP NEXT:
- Off-Season Report #4: 2013 NFL Combine Review (Next Week)
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2013 Free Agency Preview
Originally Published, 3/1/13
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
The 2013 NFL off-season might not be the most exciting in NFL history, but nevertheless there are many high-end talents available on the market on both the offensive and defensive sides of the football. The market is especially deep at running back, wide receiver, and along the offensive line, so once the signings start, make sure to keep up with FantasyGuru.com for instant analysis in our Free Agency Tracker. The new league year begins March 12 at 4 p.m. Eastern, giving the NFL a juicy primetime free agency special, and it’s possible many of the top names below are locked up in the days – or even hours – after the new league year starts.
Under the 2011 NFL CBA, players who have accrued four years of service time are designated as unrestricted free agents – you might remember that only players with six years of service time could be UFAs once the last CBA expired and the league played without a salary cap.
Below, we have an extensive list and analysis of skill-position players and top offensive linemen and IDPs who are still on the market in 2013. Some of these guys will make an impact next year, and many will not. We have you covered either way.
To start, a primer on the 2013 free agency process:
Free Agency Glossary
These are terms you’ll hear a lot in this article and over the next few weeks. These brief descriptions should have you adequately prepared for the whole process.
Unrestricted free agent: Any NFL player who has accrued four or more years of service time and has an expired contract. An unrestricted free agent is free to sign with any team in whatever situation for whatever contract he deems most beneficial, with no penalty to the acquiring team.
Restricted free agent: Any NFL player who has accrued three years of service time and has an expired contract. Restricted free agents are free to negotiate on the open market. Once a player is given an offer sheet, his previous team has a seven-day “right of first refusal” period to match the offer.
If the controlling team declines, the acquiring team could be forced to pay a draft-pick penalty for signing that player to a contract, the cost of which is depending on the RFA tender offered to the player by his previous club. On the flip side, if a player is not offered an RFA tender by his club, he becomes an unrestricted free agent.
Teams can also work out trades with interested parties, adjusting the terms any draft-pick compensation the player’s RFA tender would require (the Dolphins and Patriots did this in 2007 with Wes Welker).
Exclusive rights free agent: Any NFL player who has accrued two or fewer years of service time and has an expired contract. The term “free agent” is a misnomer, in that the player has no contract, but his rights are controlled by his team unless that team willingly decides to release him. If an exclusive rights free agent is tendered a contract (at the veteran minimum), he must sign it if he wishes to play because he has no negotiating power.
Franchise tag: Any player who will become an unrestricted or restricted free agent can be designated as his club’s franchise player. If a player is designated as a franchise player, he is tendered a one-year, guaranteed contract. To make a complicated scenario simple (and trust us, it’s complicated), the franchise tag under the new CBA signed in 2011 is calculated as a percentage of the salary cap using the salaries of highly paid players at the tagged player’s position, which reduces the overall value of the tag (this was a “win” for the owners in the CBA negotiations). Every dollar of the franchise tag is guaranteed.
If a player is designated a franchise player, he can sign the one-year deal immediately, and he can continue to negotiate a long-term deal with his club. However, once a deadline in mid-July passes, the franchise player is no longer free to negotiate a long-term deal and must either sign the franchise tag or hold out (teams can also work out trades). Moreover, if a franchise player holds out past a certain date late in the NFL season, he is no longer free to sign the tag and will go without pay for the entire 2013 season (Vincent Jackson came dangerously close to this date during the 2010 season).
A player can be either an “exclusive” or “non-exclusive” franchise player. A “non-exclusive” franchise player is free to negotiate with other teams, like a restricted free agent, and like in an RFA scenario, his previous club is given right of first refusal. If the club declines to match an offer sheet, the player’s previous club is awarded two 1st-round picks as compensation. Because of this, we won’t often see a “non-exclusive” franchise player sign with another club.
Transition tag: Like the franchise tag, the transition tag is a way for teams to retain their unrestricted or restricted free agents under a one-year guaranteed deal. However, there are some differences, explaining why it is not as prevalent as the franchise tag. First, and most notably, the transition tag is “cheaper” to the offering team, as it takes into account the salaries of 10 players instead of five, like in the franchise tag.
However, transitioned players are always free to negotiate with other clubs, like restricted free agents, and their controlling clubs are given right of first refusal. But there is no draft-pick compensation for being unable to match an offer sheet, unlike the two 1st-round pick compensation on a franchised player.
This has led to very interesting scenarios in the past, in which teams included “poison pill” clauses in their offer sheets to transitioned players, making it essentially impossible for a player’s old club to match the offer (Steve Hutchinson and Nate Burleson were signed with “poison pill” deals). The risk was minimal for offering teams – they didn’t have to pay any compensation, like they would have to under an RFA tender or a franchise tender.
That’s why the tag is little-used. While there is less financial commitment, there is a greater risk to the club offering the tag.
In previous years, teams could use both the franchise tag and a transition tag. Under the new CBA signed in 2011, teams can choose only one of the two tags.
Note: Players are essentially listed in order of their projected fantasy relevance. We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Quarterbacks
Unrestricted Free Agents
Matt Moore (Mia) – Moore made a lot of fans this past summer on Hard Knocks, when he took losing his starting job to rookie QB Ryan Tannehill in stride, despite being clearly disappointed. And it’s totally valid to think Moore got the short end of the stick in a way because he performed well enough as the Dolphins’ starter in 2011, but he really had to “wow” in training camp to win over a new staff that drafted Tannehill. And it’s hard to “wow” when you have an average arm, as Moore does. As a result, Moore recorded stats in only two games and posted 11/19 passing for 131 yards and a TD as he enters free agency. Moore doesn’t have an ideal arm, and he’s occasionally erratic, but he’s mobile and clearly has enough confidence to play the QB position in the NFL. He’s had three extended stints as a starter in the NFL – with the Panthers in 2009 and 2010 and with the Dolphins in 2011 – and he performed especially well in 2009 and 2011 (during the latter of which he completed 60.6% of his passes with 16 TDs and only 9 INTs). It should be no surprise, then, that Moore will explore the free agent market for a potential starting job, according to the Miami Herald. The Dolphins would also love to have him back as Tannehill’s top reserve, but Moore is skilled enough to think he should be able to get a shot to at least compete somewhere else. There are some potential starter opportunities out there (Ari, Buf, NYJ), but Moore looks like a career backup the rest of his career.
Drew Stanton (Ind) – Stanton didn’t take a snap as Andrew Luck’s backup after he requested a trade from the Jets over the summer. Stanton had signed with the Jets in hopes he’d be the #2 behind Mark Sanchez, a plan that blew up when the club dealt for Tim Tebow. Well, Stanton played about as much in 2012 as the #2 in Indy as he would as the #3 with the Jets. Still, he’s an injury away with the Colts, and he’s a guy with some solid in-game experience. For some intrigue, the National Football Post reported recently that new Cardinal head coach Bruce Arians was really happy with Stanton’s practice routine and maturity. And believe it or not, the buzz around the league is that Stanton is a pretty “hot” name in free agency. Hey, the Cards could be looking for a QB…
Chase Daniel (NO) – Although he’s been pretty impressive in the preseason over the last few years, any team taking a shot on Daniel in 2013 is going to be going into to it pretty damn blind. As Drew Brees’ primary backup the last few seasons, Daniel has thrown a grand total of 9 passes, completing 7 of them for 55 yards, with no TDs or INTs. It’s understandable that the durable Brees wouldn’t require his backup to throw too many passes, but it’s also meant that Daniel hasn’t had his chance to show his stuff. Like Brees, he’s an undersized passer at 6’0”, but he possesses a strong arm and the ability to create lanes with pocket movement and good vision. Daniel, who was a prolific passer at the University of Missouri, has publicly stated he wants an opportunity to start, but it’s going to take a team to evaluate his generally strong preseason performances and take a gamble on that. Daniel seems to fit best with a traditional drop-back offense (perhaps the Browns?), and/or a WCO like for the NYJ or KC, but he might draw some interest from any team looking to strike gold at the QB position, like the Cardinals. If he doesn’t, we’re sure the Saints would love to have him back as Brees’ backup.
Tyler Thigpen (Buf) – Thigpen once again served as a backup in Buffalo in 2012, but never threatened to take the starting job from a struggling Ryan Fitzpatrick. Despite the Bills giving up a draft pick for QB Tarvaris Jackson, it was Thigpen who held onto the primary backup job all season. Thigpen appeared in four games and threw just 5 passes all season. After starting 11 games for the Chiefs in 2008, Thigpen had just one start in 14 appearances in the last four seasons. What’s a little surprising is that he did very well back in ’08 running the type of offense (pistol, shotgun spread) that has become much more relevant in 2013. Granted, his mediocre passing skills have likely prevented anything close to an emergence the last 3-4 years, but this is a guy who did finish 12th in the league in fantasy PPG with the Chiefs in ’08, with 18.5. Despite seeing no or limited snaps in three games back in 2008, he also led all QBs that year with 386 rushing yards. He’ll be nothing more than a backup option when he hits the market and with Jackson signing a new deal to compete for the starting job with Fitzpatrick, Thigpen might not return to the Bills. With QB Alex Smith off to the Chiefs, it’s possible the 49ers may take a look at Thigpen as the new backup to Colin Kaepernick, or maybe in Carolina to be the new #2 there. It’s also possible the Vikings, who drafted Thigpen in 2007, could look to get “Thiggy wit it” and sign him.
Jason Campbell (Chi) – After starting for the Redskins and Raiders in the previous six seasons, Campbell signed with the Bears in 2012 to serve as the primary backup to Jay Cutler. Campbell would appear in six games, but most notably in Weeks Ten-Eleven, thanks to a concussion Cutler suffered in a home game against the Texans. Campbell did a decent job in relief that game, going 11/19 for 94 yards and would go on to start the next game, finishing 14/22 for 107 yards with a TD and 2 INTs in a loss to the 49ers. Campbell is far from a lock to return to the Bears, especially under a new coaching staff, but with a decent arm and starting experience, the 31-year-old will probably find work elsewhere and could even be in a competition to start if he lands in the right spot. But if a team is looking to shy away from a retread and instead develop a prospect from the draft, Campbell will be off the grid.
Kellen Clemens (Stl) – Clemens served as QB Sam Bradford’s primary backup for a second straight season, appearing in just two games and completing 1/3 passes for 39 yards and 1 INT. Clemens, who will turn 30 in June, started three games for Bradford at the end of the 2011 seasons, but Bradford stayed healthier in 2012. The Rams could be in the market for a new backup QB with Clemens becoming a free agent this off-season, and a decent backup is essential with Bradford’s ankle issues in the past. The only other QB currently on the Rams’ roster is 2012 rookie Austin Davis. The Rams may want to give Davis a shot at backing up Bradford, but the team is still likely to keep a veteran quarterback around to give Davis some competition and as insurance in case of another Bradford injury. Clemens won’t blow anyone away with his abilities, but he has shown in the past that he’s a capable NFL backup and spot starter.
More options at this position can be viewed online
Restricted Free Agents
Brian Hoyer (Ari) – Hoyer had spent the first three seasons of his career as a backup in New England, but didn’t make it through final cuts in the preseason and was released. That wouldn’t have happened were it not for the presence of promising prospect Ryan Mallet, since Hoyer had done a good job since being acquired as an undrafted free agent in 2009 and surprisingly winning the #2 job that same year (while beating out four veterans). He eventually landed in Pittsburgh and served as a backup there for Weeks 12-13, but was released in early December once the Steelers got healthier at the QB position. Hoyer signed with the Cardinals soon after and would make his first appearance in Week Sixteen, in relief of the struggling Ryan Lindley. The Cardinal QB situation was so bad, Hoyer ended up starting the season finale, a loss to the 49ers. He went 30/53 for 330 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs in his only two appearances of the season. While Hoyer is considered a solid backup, he’s never really had a chance to show much, playing behind Tom Brady for the majority of his career. With Hoyer’s only start of his career coming in Week Seventeen of last year, there’s not exactly much to go on, but all indications are that Hoyer can be a solid backup option and fill in as a spot starter. He’s actually still a RFA, since he didn’t play in enough games in 2012 (5) to merit a logged season in the league, so the chances of the Cardinals keeping him around are good if they want him. If not, he could be a good veteran for a team like the Browns or Jets to bring in and compete for a starting job.
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Running Backs
Unrestricted Free Agents
Reggie Bush (Mia) – If you’re looking at things on the most basic level, it’s hard to argue that Bush has played the best football of his career in his two years in Miami. Bush had his first career 1000-yard rushing season in 2011 with 1097 yards, and he fell 14 yards short of the millennium mark in 2012, despite dealing with a nagging knee injury for the entire year. Over that two-year span, he’s been the Dolphins’ most dangerous and best offense player. In fact, his 2083 rushing yards in two years as a Dolphin exactly matches his output in five years as a Saint. But both we and Bush remain confused by something. First of all, Bush has only 78/588/3 receiving in 31 games as a Dolphin, an average of only 2.5 receptions and 18.9 receiving yards per game. That’s after posting 295/2148/12 in 60 games as a Saint, an average of 4.9 receptions and 35.8 yards per game. We know his role changed in 2011-2012 and he became more of a lead back, but that still really confuses us. Even though Bush has been better as a runner the last two years, he’s still most dangerous in space. And it was clear to us in 2012 that he reverted to some bad habits, such as trying to bounce too many runs to the outside and running with less-than-stellar patience and vision. That could mean that several teams still question whether or not he’s a feature back. We’re wondering if there’s a balance that hasn’t been found somewhere. As for Bush, he’s “confused” that the Dolphins haven’t tried to aggressively retain him thus far, according to the Palm Beach Post, because he really wants to return to the club. Perhaps Bush is asking for too much money, and maybe the Dolphins are wondering just how long he can hold up (he had a knee problem in 2012). Remember, the team has youngster Lamar Miller in the slow cooker, and Miller has a similar skill set to Bush, although he’s a little bulkier of a back. But if the team was preparing to go to with Miller in ’13 all along, why didn’t the Dolphins give the rookie more reps down the stretch in ‘12? One explanation is that they simply weren’t able to run off enough plays to get the rookie in their games, but that’s not a great excuse. Bush will be a fascinating player to watch in free agency, since you could make a case for him in a number of spots as, at worst, an active rotational player. For example, he could be a good fit in San Diego alongside Ryan Mathews.
Steven Jackson (Stl) – It was widely believed that Jackson was ready to void the $7 million left on the final year of his contract to hit the free-agent market, and he finally did it Feb. 25. Jackson had stated that his preference was to stay with the Ram organization, and there is apparently mutual interest from St. Louis, especially HC Jeff Fisher. The Rams aren’t ready to keep Jackson around at that $7-million figure, but the team would love to have Jackson finish his career in St. Louis. St. Louis and Jackson could be headed toward a tricky negotiation because Jackson is probably don’t to his last 1-2 years as a lead guy and the rebuilding Rams don’t want to lock him up to big money for too many years. The two sides don’t appear to be close, and the St. Louis Dispatch believes that Jackson could be ready to head to a Super Bowl contender like the Falcons. Atlanta could be ready to cut RB Michael Turner and the team is in the market for a top-flight running back, and last year showed that Jackson still has plenty in the tank. Jackson, who will turn 30 in July, reached 1000 yards for the eighth consecutive season. He finished with 1042 yards and 4 TDs on 257 attempts, and he added 38 catches for 321 yards. He may not be as dynamic as he once was, but he still runs extremely hard, and he’s still productive. The Rams attempted to save Jackson a bit for the end of the year by cutting down on his snaps earlier in the 2012 season. They gave some of Jackson’s snaps to rookie RB Daryl Richardson, and Richardson and fellow rookie RB Isaiah Pead could see more time next season even if Jackson returns. Jackson has been one of the most consistent running backs in the NFL since he broke into the league in 2003, so the Rams are inclined to try to bring him back for at least another season. But if the Rams can’t offer him enough money, it appears that Jackson will head to a team where he can win a championship, and we don’t blame him, considering he hasn’t made the playoffs since his rookie year, when he was Marshall Faulk’s backup.
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) – In our divisional wrap-ups written last month, we said of Bradshaw that he was a potential cap casualty because of the $4 million guaranteed money owed to him and the late-season emergence of rookie David Wilson (and also the solid play of veteran Andre Brown). Well, the Giants released him only a few short weeks after that, making the productive but unreliable Bradshaw an unrestricted free agent. Statistically in 2012, Bradshaw finished with 221/1015/6 rushing (4.6 YPC) and 23/245/0 receiving on 10 targets, finishing 16th among all RBs with 11.6 FPG. But his foot and knee problems limited him to 14 games played (and several more in which he was clearly limited). As a result, nearly 40% of Bradshaw’s fantasy production on the year came in just a three-game stretch between Weeks Five and Seven. So if anything, he was inconsistent. The foot injury, which has plagued Bradshaw for essentially his entire career, again required off-season surgery, so any team signing Bradshaw might have to do so without knowing if he’ll be fully healthy. Bradshaw’s durability issues should not be confused for a lack of toughness, because he does play hurt, it’s just unlikely he’ll be able to hold down a full workload ever again, and a team would be foolish to assume he’d be capable of doing that. All that said, however, Bradshaw will be just 27 in March, and theoretically, he should have some productive football left in him. The versatile Bradshaw would be a great fit with a team that isn’t projected to run the ball much or as a rotational player with another back. For what it’s worth, Bradshaw shortly after his release said he’d love to play in New York – for the Jets.
Shonn Greene (NYJ) – As fantasy guys, we’ve been somewhat hard on Greene throughout the last few years, given that he’s a totally unexciting player with a capable but limited skill set. But it’s really not Greene’s fault that he’s miscast, since there’s no way he should be a team’s best offensive player, the way he was with the Jets this past season. Statistically, he was totally fine once again, rushing for 1063 yards and 8 TDs on 276 carries, but that came out to just 3.9 YPC. He did bump that number up to 4.2 YPC the final six games of the season, but he was under 4.0 YPC in three of those six games. He added 19/151 on 30 targets to finish 22nd among RBs, with 10.6 FPG. Greene’s value and production seems to mostly come as a result of the volume he gets, and predicting when he’ll get volume can be difficult. He’s not an overly talented player and doesn’t have any traits that stand out. He can absorb a beating and has managed to stay relatively healthy over his first four seasons, as he hasn’t sat out a game due to injury in the last three years. However, he doesn’t have much juice, isn’t a creator, and is pretty much nothing more than a between-the-tackles runner who needs a significant number of touches to produce decent numbers. That might work on a team with a strong passing game or a great OL, but it doesn’t work for the Jets, who are finally going to try to ditch the tooth-pulling “ground and pound” offense after replacing Tony Sparano with new OC Marty Mornhinweg. Therefore, it might be best for Greene to look for new scenery, and he could be a really good fit as a rotational back in a spot like Green Bay, Atlanta, or Detroit. He’s probably not versatile enough to fit in Mornhinweg’s West Coast system, and he’s expected to find a new home in 2013.
Rashard Mendenhall (Pit) – Although the Steelers really don’t have a strong replacement on the roster, Mendenhall’s days in Pittsburgh appear to be numbered. The former 2008 first-round pick dealt with knee and Achilles injuries this season, and he also had an attitude problem that got him suspended for a game. Coming off an ACL injury in 2011, Mendenhall had his least productive year since his rookie campaign in 2008, with just 51 carries for 182 yards and 9 receptions for 62 yards and 1 TD. Mendenhall will become a free agent this off-season after an up-and-down tenure with the Steelers, and he’s likely played his final snap with Pittsburgh. While Mendenhall wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh, he still has plenty of talent and he’s only 25 years old, so he should have at least a few teams interested in services. He rushed 566 times for 2382 yards and 20 TDs in 2009 and 2010 combined, so he can be a workhorse back in the NFL. The big question is if Mendenhall can regain some of his old form after five NFL seasons. Mendenhall likely won’t get huge offers from interested teams, but he’ll almost certainly see bigger offers than the cap-strapped Steelers could offer.
Michael Turner (RB, Atl) – As expected, the Falcons cut Turner in early March to save $6.4 million. With HC Mike Smith saying at the combine that the team would be “recalibrating” the roster, it was hardly a surprise to see Turner on the chopping block after a disappointing 2012 season. He ran for just 803 yards on 223 carries (3.6 YPC) and caught 19/128 on 30 targets, but his fantasy value was somewhat salvaged by 11 TDs, which is why he was able to finish 26th among RBs, with 9.9 FPG, while playing in all 16 games for the third straight year. A closer look at his numbers revealed how much Turner’s value was predicated on his ability to find the endzone. In the final eight games of the season, Turner failed to eclipse 60 rushing yards in all but one game, but scored six times over that span. He ran for 100 yards just twice all season in what was easily his worst year with the Falcons in the five years he spent with the team. The nine-year veteran split time with RB Jacquizz Rodgers, despite Rogers going through his own struggles with trying to handle a heavier load in his second season. With the Falcons becoming more of a pass-first team, the writing was on the wall for Turner, but on top of that, he looked sluggish and unable to perform at the level of a main ball carrier. We’d expect Turner to have more than a few suitors looking for a rotational back who specializes in short-yardage and goal-line situations, as long as his price tag isn’t too high. Ironically, he would fit in pretty well in San Diego, where he started his career. The Chargers may be looking for a younger option behind/alongside Ryan Mathews, though.
Felix Jones (Dal) – For only the second time in his five-year career, Jones appeared in all 16 games for the Cowboys in 2012. Of course, he still battled injuries all season, including soreness in both knees and a shoulder problem, which limited him for most of the season. Jones started seven times, since starting RB DeMarco Murray was also banged up, but he didn’t exactly light it up. He ran 111 times for 402 yards (3.6 YPC) and 3 TDs while adding 26/266/2 on 37 targets to finish 42nd among RBs with 6.1 FPG. Because the team also has Philip Tanner and Lance Dunbar, all indications suggest Jones won’t be back with the Cowboys in 2013, as they’ll look to the draft for another RB to replace Jones as a #2 back behind Murray. Injuries have plagued Jones throughout his career and probably won’t be going away, even though he’ll turn just 26 in May. We expect Jones to find work elsewhere as a capable backup, or the second half of a two-man rotation. But his chances of being a regular starter going into a season have probably ended.
Danny Woodhead (NE) – Woodhead is in an interesting position, as a player who was important to the Patriots for the last few years, including playing about a third of their snaps in 2012, but he might well be on the outs in New England because of the emergence of Shane Vereen, who has better size but also speed and versatility. And they also have speedster Jeff Demps, who spent the 2012 season on IR. But will Woodhead find a better fit for his skills than the Patriots? Woodhead ended the year with 76 carries for 301 yards and 4 TDs, and he added 40 catches for 446 yards and 3 TDs. He finished 34th among RBs this year with 7.3 FPG, so he was a solid flex player, especially in a PPR. Woodhead has expressed his desire to return to New England, but the Patriots are notoriously frugal, and they have depth at the RB position, so we wouldn’t think it to be a guarantee that he’s back next season. Woodhead is a favorite of coach Bill Belichick, and because of his lack size (5’8”, 195), he’s not going to be a great fit with a whole lot of teams. A team-friendly deal with the Patriots might be Woodhead’s best chance to get the most out of his skill set, unless another forward-thinking team comes calling. That is possible, though, as someone like Chip Kelly or Andy Reid could show some interest. Also, if a team is looking for a true 3rd down back, they could investigate Woodhead. For example, now with Mike Lombardi, who has consulted for the Pats and is a Belichick guy, the Browns could be interested.
LaRod Stephens-Howling (Ari) – We’ve long thought Stephens-Howling had been underutilized by the offensively challenged Cardinals, but in 2012, they had no choice but to use him, thanks to injuries at the RB position. At 5’7”, 185, Stephens-Howling had typically seen most of his time as a returner, but thanks to Ryan Williams landing on the IR for the second straight season and Beanie Wells battling turf toe, the Cardinals had to give Stephens-Howling a shot to start. He did surprisingly well in a lead role, as he topped 100 yards in two of his five starts, but ended up ceding the starting job to Wells once Wells came off the designated-to-return IR around Thanksgiving. In fact, Stephens-Howling had more than 5 carries just once after Week Eleven. A hip injury kept him out for a couple of games early in the season, limiting him to 14 on the year. In 14 games (five starts), Stephens-Howling had 111 carries for 357 yards (3.2 YPC) and 4 TDs while catching 17/106 on 30 targets, putting him in a tie for 58th among RBs with 5 FPG. As of late February, Stephens-Howling’s agent hadn’t talked to the Cardinals since they changed GMs, which was almost two months ago, although all indications were that the team would have interest in bringing Stephens-Howling back. We should note that new HC Bruce Arians doesn’t plan to utilize his backs as receivers much, which was the case in Indy last year and in Pittsburgh in year’s past. That would hurt Stephens-Howling’s fantasy value if he’s back in Arizona, especially in PPR leagues. If he’s on the move, he should generate interest from teams looking for a changeup/Darren Sproles type back.
Peyton Hillis (KC) – In signing Hillis to a low-risk one-year deal last off-season, many (including us) thought the Chiefs got a bargain and would be able to replicate their Jamaal Charles/Thomas Jones two-headed monster without spending a whole lot of cash. But it’s beginning to look more and more like Hillis’ 2010 season, in which he was a high-end fantasy back, was a mirage. In 13 games in 2012, he finished with just 85 carries for 309 yards and 1 TD to finish 75th among RBs, with 3.3 FPG. Hillis looked totally pedestrian with no special qualities, even in short-yardage situations (where he had fumbling issues, a big no-no for a short-yardage back). According to Fox Sports Kansas City, the Chief higher-ups were incredibly disappointed in Hillis’ performance, and although the front office and coaching staff has undergone a big overhaul, we’d guess new coach Andy Reid won’t have much use for a plodding, unreliable, and injury-prone back. Reid hasn’t really rotated his backs since the early part of his tenure in Philadelphia, so we’d guess the Chiefs won’t be much interested in bringing Hillis back. And on the open market, it appears likely Hillis will have to sign himself another “prove it” deal. But he should draw interest from a team looking for a bigger back.
Mike Goodson (Oak) – Goodson looked to be an effective backup for the disappointing Darren McFadden early in the 2012 season. In fact, he looked more comfortable in the zone blocking scheme (one he played in with the Panthers) and was more effective than McFadden on a per-touch basis. But when you factor injuries into the equation, Goodson’s first season in Oakland also went down as a bust, as he happened to hurt his ankle in the same game that McFadden got injured. Goodson never really got the chance to see a ton of carries even with McFadden getting injured, but he did flash on occasion with some splashy plays. He had only 51 touches in 12 games, but with 416 yards from scrimmage, he averaged 8.2 yards per touch. It was somewhat surprising he didn’t get more touches than that, but it’s entirely possible Goodson just hasn’t earned the trust of the last two coaching staffs for which he’s played (Carolina and Oakland). He’s talented enough to draw interest as a third-down back, and maybe even with the Raiders again, but we wonder if there’s an underlying reason he hasn’t had significant touches in over two seasons. Keep in mind the Raiders are going back to a power running game this year, which is great news for McFadden and might prompt the team to look elsewhere for their #2 RB.
Justin Forsett (Hou) – With Ben Tate unreliable because of injuries during the 2012 season, Forsett was actually a pretty important player as Arian Foster’s backup. In 16 games, the speedy Forsett went for 63/375/1 (6.0 YPC) rushing and 3/38 receiving. While he’ll be known more for the weird long “TD” against the Lions on Thanksgiving, Forsett provided the Texans with a reliable rotational back, even if he wasn’t much of anything for fantasy (3.0 FPG). But Forsett’s skill set might mean he’s best utilized as a third-down back, and that’s a role that Foster certainly won’t relinquish any time soon. The Texans might want to bring him back as insurance for both Foster and Tate, but Forsett might want to look elsewhere for a more guaranteed role. Tate will be a free agent in 2014, and Forsett is a good fit for this running scheme, so the Texans might be inclined to keep him around.
Rashad Jennings (Jac) – Jennings did a fine job as the Jags’ #2 behind Maurice Jones-Drew in 2010, but he missed the entirety of the 2011 season with a knee injury and was a huge disappointment in 2012. With MJD injured early in the season, Jennings stepped into the starting role, but he never really got going, and it was clear how much the team missed MJD. Jennings was sluggish and appeared to have trouble handling the heavier workload. He battled concussion issues and a shoulder injury that eventually landed him on the injured reserve after Week Thirteen. Jennings failed to top 60 rushing yards and didn’t play much of a role in the passing game outside of his first two starts when Jones-Drew went down. Jennings appeared in 10 games (6 starts), rushing 101 times for 283 yards (2.8 YPC) and 2 TDs with 19/130 on 26 targets, putting him 57th among RBs at 5.1 FPG, and he ended up losing his job to the likes of Jalen Parmele and Montell Owens. He’ll be a free agent heading into 2013 and isn’t a lock to return under the new regime, so he’ll likely have to prove himself in camp. But remember, he is a guy who averaged 5.2 YPC in 2009 and 5.5 YPC in 2010, so there was a huge drop-off this past seasons.
Cedric Benson (GB) – In a bit of an unorthodox move for the Packers, they signed Benson to a one-year deal late in the 2012 off-season with a need at RB. With Alex Green still coming back from a knee injury and James Starks battling turf toe, Benson entered the season as the unquestioned starter and did a fine job before going down with a foot injury. Benson wasn’t outstanding, but he gave the team a back they could trust as a complement to the high-octane passing game, and they actually had a strong commitment to the run, due possibly (likely) to protection issues. In the first five games, he ran for 248 yards and a TD on 71 carries and had 14/97 in the passing game, which was good for a solid 8.1 FPG. Unfortunately, that would be all the Packers saw of Benson, as the injury turned out to be a Lisfranc sprain. Benson was put on the designated-to-return injured reserve with the hope he’d be able to come back in late November, but he ended up needing surgery and remained on IR for the rest of the season. He’s expressed an interest in returning to the Packers in 2013, but he’s aware that at 30 years old, it’ll be up to the team if they want to bring him back. Of course, the Packers aren’t exactly in great shape at the RB position with DuJuan Harris looking like their best option at the end of 2012, so there’s a chance Benson could return as a possible fallback option if necessary. That seems like a long-shot, though, and GM Ted Thompson at the combine expressed intrigue when asked about Harris. Of course, they also have Alex Green and could be looking at RB in the draft. If Benson isn’t back with the Packers, we wouldn’t be surprised to see him remain on the market for a while, just as he did last year, especially coming off an injury-shortened season at 30.
Kevin Smith (Det) – Smith was solid for the Lions after being signed as a street free agent in the second half of the 2011 season, but after opening this past season as the starter, he found himself on the bench more often than not in the second half of 2012. Smith started the first two games, but gave way to RB Mikel Leshoure after he returned from his suspension in Week Three. Smith ended up being a healthy scratch for the next three games and was reportedly in danger of being cut, if not for Jahvid Best’s inability to return from concussion issues. Clearly, the team felt journeyman Joique Bell was a better option, and despite Smith’s impressive production in 2011, it’s hard to argue. Smith ended up with just 8 carries the rest of the season and ended up with 37 carries for 134 yards and a TD and 10/79/1 as a receiver in 12 games. Smith expressed disappointment with his role after the season and considering how little he was used, we wouldn’t expect him back in Detroit. He may get looks elsewhere, but it’s hard to imagine Smith playing anything more than a backup role, especially considering his lengthy injury history.
Jalen Parmele (Jac) – Parmele, who turned 27 on December 30, finally got his chance to show his stuff in 2012, with Maurice Jones-Drew injured and Rashad Jennings ineffective. Parmele earned himself a start in Week Twelve this past season, but showing how incredibly fickle the life of an NFL RB is, he partially tore his groin after a strong start, and landed on IR. Parmele posted 40/143/0 rushing and 7/60/0 this season, so he doesn’t exactly have the strongest of resumes to build on. That said, he’s a versatile player who can play special teams, so he should be able to catch on with a camp somewhere.
Bernard Scott (Cin) – A disappointing four years with the Bengals may end Scott’s time in Cincinnati after he tore his ACL just five games into the 2012 season. He ended up with just 8 carries for 35 yards in two appearances before landing on the injured reserve. The Bengals had hoped Scott would emerge as a nice #2 complementary back, but that was never the case and it looks like he won’t be back with the team unless it’s on a cheap, one-year deal, which might be all he’s able to get after a major injury and four disappointing seasons. Scott’s biggest workload came in 2011, when he ran 112 times for 380 yards and 3 TDs with 13/38 in the passing game. His role in the passing game has always been extremely limited, so we can’t call him versatile. The 29-year-old probably won’t draw much attention in free agency and will need to prove he’s fully recovered to even make a roster.
More options at this position can be viewed online
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Fullbacks
Unrestricted Free Agents
Jerome Felton (Min) – It’s possible that Felton had more fantasy value than any player in NFL history with fewer than 100 yards from scrimmage. Despite catching only 3 passes for a total of 35 yards, the veteran fullback (he’ll be 27 in July) was the lead blocker on a large majority of Adrian Peterson’s 348 carries this year. Felton paved the way for Peterson’s legendary season, and then he rode that same path to the Pro Bowl, so it should come as no surprise that Viking GM Rick Spielman has said publicly that the club wants to get him locked up as soon as possible. It’s not that Felton’s departure would make us drop Peterson on our draft boards; it’s that his return will just make us feel that much more secure with him.
Greg Jones (Jac) – Jones has been one of the NFL’s better blocking backs over the last decade, but he’s now entering his age 32 season, and he had injury problems in 2012, dealing with an ugly thigh strain. His presence in the backfield should help out Maurice Jones-Drew, but with only 149 yards from scrimmage over the last three years combined, Jones isn’t much of a fantasy option, or even a threat to be a vulture.
Darrel Young (Was) – Young helped pave the way for rookie RB Alfred Morris to become the second-best running back in 2012. Morris finished with 1613 rushing yards, second to only Viking superstar Adrian Peterson. Young, who will turn 26 in April, should be rewarded with a contract extension from the Redskins, even though the team is dealing with salary cap issues. Young has been a decent receiver out of the backfield, hauling in 8 catches for 109 yards and 2 TDs this past season. Young also had 14 catches for 138 yards in 2011 with QB Rex Grossman at QB. If Young would hit the market, he’s built up enough of a resume in three seasons to warrant a contract as a starting fullback somewhere.
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Wide Receivers
Unrestricted Free Agents
Dwayne Bowe (KC) – Bowe is going to be one of the more fascinating WRs to watch this off-season, when the market is loaded with a lot of them. When Bowe was franchised last season and ended up having a poor year thanks in large part to the Chiefs’ horrendous QB play and a rib injury, the general assumption was that both sides would benefit from moving on from the other. But the Chiefs will enter 2013 with an entirely new front office and coaching structure behind Andy Reid (who likes him a lot and did when he was entering the draft) and for Bowe it might be like playing with an entirely new team now that Romeo Crennel and Scott Pioli are gone. It also makes sense for the Chiefs to retain Bowe. They’ll be breaking in a new QB in Alex Smith, and an alpha receiver like Bowe can really help to ease that transition. But there are a few caveats. First of all, Bowe didn’t have a great season, finishing with 59 catches (52.2% catch rate) for 801 yards and 3 TDs in 13 games, ending the season 41st among WRs, with 7.5 FPG. We can certainly explain that away with the poor Chief QB play. But more important, scouts have told Sports Illustrated in recent weeks that they’re scared that Bowe, who will be 29 when the 2013 season begins and has had some disciplinary problems in the past, will start to mail it in effort-wise once he gets his big contract. His hands are actually considered suspect, too. So the Chiefs, according to ESPN.com, could well consider franchising Bowe yet again as they try to figure out what do with him. If he’s tagged for the second straight year, Bowe will be owed about $11 million guaranteed, so it’s a hefty cost, but it might be worth it for the Chiefs as they try to determine how Bowe will respond to the new coaching staff and front office. But if he hits the open market, we’d assume several teams will be able to look past his perceived character issues and realize he’s a guy who is capable of catching 80 or so balls and scoring more than 10 TDs. Guys like that don’t grow on trees.
Greg Jennings (GB) – Contract years are always important to players looking to cash in big for the first time in their careers, but if you’re not on the field, it’s tough for potential suitors to have confidence in handing out a big deal. Unfortunately, that’s an issue for Jennings heading into free agency, as he was limited to just eight games in 2012 thanks to a groin injury that ended up turning into sports hernia surgery. Jennings hurt himself in the opener, sat out a game, but came back for the next two before re-injuring himself. It was clear Jennings came back too fast and because of that, he didn’t see the field again until Week Thirteen. Jennings finished the season with 36/366/4 on 62 targets in eight games (five starts), but was just 40th among WRs with 7.6 FPG. We spoke to Jennings on SiriusXM Fantasy Football, and he was well aware how important it was for him to be on the field to prove he deserved a new deal from any team, even though many, including Jennings, believed he wouldn’t be back with the Packers. We should note Jennings missed time late in 2011 with a knee injury, so he’s going on back-to-back seasons heading into free agency with injury issues. Jennings, who will turn 30 in late September, could be in play for the franchise tag, which would earn him in the area of $10.4 million in 2013, unless they decide to trade him, in which case he would probably work out a long-term deal with a new team. Although Jennings was reportedly looking for $14 million/year, that price tag may have dropped, especially since Jennings isn’t considered a bona fide star at the position, despite his great play when healthy with QB Aaron Rodgers. While the WR market might be crowded, Jennings is among the best options and he should draw strong interest, as more than a few teams are looking to upgrade at the position. Clearly, a reunion with former Packer coach Joe Philbin in Miami is a possibility, since the Dolphins are very thin at receiver.
Mike Wallace (Pit) – Wallace’s 2012 season got off to a shaky start from the moment he decided to hold out of training camp after turning down an extension from the Steelers, and he never really fit into OC Todd Haley’s new offense. The Steelers are about $10 million over the projected 2013 cap, and Steeler president Art Rooney II said all the pieces don’t fit. You can see the writing on the wall with Wallace, as he will almost certainly get paid elsewhere. A number of key drops during the season overshadowed the big plays he made in 2012. Wallace finished 28th among WRs, with 8.8 FPG on 64 catches (55.2% catch rate) for 838 yards and 8 TDs. Wallace equaled his TD production from 2011, but he finished with 355 fewer yards, and his YPC dropped from 16.6 in 2011 to 13.1 in 2012, perhaps a symptom of the quicker and shorter passes that Haley implemented into the offense with fewer deep throws. Wallace is an unrestricted free agent this off-season, and there’s almost no doubt that he’ll be with another organization next season. Wallace will have a number of pursuers, as there is no shortage of teams desperate for help at wide receiver. In fact, the Dolphins are targeting Wallace, and he is their #1 priority, according to the Miami Herald. The Dolphins are desperate for a big-name player and playmaker on the perimeter, and Wallace could bring some flash and profile to South Beach and the Dolphin offense for young QB Ryan Tannehill. Wallace also could end up with the division-rival Browns. Cleveland owner Jimmy Haslam is a former minority owner with the Steelers, and new Brown coaches Rob Chudzinski and Norv Turner like to stretch the field with vertical-passing games. Wallace’s name has been thrown around as a candidate for a number of different teams, including also the Colts, and he’s looking for the kind of money Vincent Jackson got last off-season from the Buccaneers (5 years, $55 million). Wallace won’t be cheap, as he’ll be looking for about $10-$11 million per year on his contract, so he’ll be one of the bigger names to move on to greener pastures this off-season.
Wes Welker (NE) – If Welker hasn’t been the “#1” WR for the Patriots since arriving with the club in 2007, then we probably have to rethink the definition. In six seasons with the Patriots, Welker has caught an unbelievable 673 passes for 7459 yards and 37 TDs, having fewer than 112 catches and 1165 yards only once (2010, coming off a major knee injury). In fact, the argument can be made that the 32-year-old Welker could be on his way to Canton for forcing us to rethink the way we pigeonhole slot receivers as “#3” guys in our minds. But is the Welker/Tom Brady connection that his been so prolific about to end? It’s always hard to tell exactly what the Patriots are thinking when it comes to personnel, but the Boston Herald and other local publications have wondered aloud about the Patriots’ willingness to spend money on Welker as he ostensibly approaches the twilight of his career. Welker was franchised last season, so he’d be owed over $11 million guaranteed to be tagged yet again, and early indications are that the Patriots are not willing to lock in that much money for Welker for one season. So, a long-term deal then? Not so fast. Both Patriot coach Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft have been noncommittal about Welker’s future when discussing him publicly, and Kraft seemed to preemptively place the blame on Welker’s agent in an interview with CSN New England. So, if the Patriots are unlikely to franchise Welker, and he’s going to command more on the open market than the Patriots are willing to pay him, it might well be up to Welker to determine if he’s willing to give the club that made him famous a hometown discount. Fortunately for Welker, that discount might not be as steep as originally thought, given Brady’s own modest $27 million three-year contract extension, which should leave more money for top players like Welker. But if Welker leaves, the Patriots could still focus on a cheaper option, like re-signing Julian Edelman or pursuing Danny Amendola, but it’s also possible that they could once again completely reinvent their offense. Heck, they’ve only done it like 10 times under Belichick, right? But with more money now under the cap, it’s expected that the Patriots make a strong run to re-sign him.
Danny Amendola (Stl) – It looks the Rams and Amendola are pretty far apart in terms of coming to a deal this off-season, so the 27-year-old slot wide receiver should hit the open market, at least to test it. Amendola has shown that he can be a solid NFL wide receiver when he can stay on the field. The “staying on the field” part has proven to be a huge problem, though, as Amendola struggled with injuries all year long, and has throughout his career, most likely due to his reckless playing style. Amendola’s injury history is surely a major reason why both sides are far apart at this point. The Rams don’t want to overpay for a WR who can’t stay on the field and consistently produce. Amendola missed five games and was limited in three other games because of foot and collarbone injuries in 2012. He still posted 63 catches (63.6% catch rate) for 666 yards for the second-highest totals of his career. Amendola added 3 TDs to finish 36th among WRs this year 7.8 FPG. But he has now missed 20 of a possible 32 games over the last two seasons, and Amendola seems to always be playing through an injury when he is on the field. He did look a little out of sync with QB Sam Bradford after he returned from his second major injury, plantar fasciitis. Still, Amendola proved by far to be Bradford’s favorite target, posting seven games with at least 5 catches, including games with 11 and 15 catches. They two are also very close friends. Amendola this past year evolved into being more than a slot receiver, and he played significant snaps on the outside in 2012, with success. It’s not exactly shocking that the Rams are more than a little hesitant to offer Amendola a long-term contract or place the franchise tag on the pending free agent. Still, the Rams are desperate for a #1 WR, so they’ll have a tough decision to make on Amendola. The Rams will likely let Amendola hit the open market to see what his true value is, so they don’t overpay him, but they’ll also be at risk to watching Amendola go to another franchise. They could also use the transition tag in order to have a shot to keep him.
Brian Hartline (Mia) – Hartline was the Dolphins’ #1 WR out of necessity in 2012, and overall he acquitted himself pretty well. Hartline set career highs, with 74 catches and 1083 yards (14.6 YPC) on 130 targets (56.9% catch rate), but he scored just once and was 48thamong WRs with 7.1 FPG. Hartline flashed at times, including a ridiculous 12/253/1 performance in Week Four against the Cardinals, but he topped 100 yards only two other times all season (Week Two, Week Nine) and caught more than 5 balls just four times. That said, his connection with rookie QB Ryan Tannehill was beneficial to both players, and because of that, Hartline has expressed his desire to return to the team. In fact, according to the Palm Beach Post agent Drew Rosenhaus has suggested that there is mutual interest from both sides, but Hartline has to be careful not to overplay his hand. He’s got good hands and size, and he can run pretty well, but he’s best suited as a #2, and Dolphin GM Jeff Ireland will want to pay him as such. As long as the two sides can reach a strong compromise, the best fit for Hartline remains Miami.
Donnie Avery (Ind) – Avery lost a lot of targets toward the end of the 2012 season to rookie T.Y. Hilton, and it’s completely understandable, given how many terrible drops Avery had this year. Those negatives were the most visible part of Avery’s season, but it’s also important to realize that the oft-injured Avery managed to stay on the field for 16 games, and that means he’s going to at least have a chance to compete for a solid role somewhere next year. The speedster finished the year with 60 catches (a very poor 49.6% catch rate) for 781 yards and 3 TDs. Avery will become a free agent this year, and while he was effective at times for the Colts, he’s been largely a disappointment through five NFL seasons. That said, new Colt offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton talked him up repeatedly during his introductory press conference with the club. After Hamilton’s PC, it appeared more likely than ever that Avery would rejoin the Colts’ offense, especially considering he’s a favorite of GM Ryan Grigson. But if he does come back, he’ll likely be the #3 or rotational WR behind Reggie Wayne and Hilton.
Steve Breaston (KC) – Breaston was one of the 2012 season’s mysteries, landing in the doghouse on a 2-14 team that could have used all of the weapons it could get. A year after posting 61 catches and nearly 800 receiving yards, Breaston caught only 7 passes for 74 yards in 10 games, and was listed as a healthy scratch six times. He’s had knee problems in the past, but there’s no reason to believe the old injury crept up to slow him down this season, and it’s likely that he just clashed with former coach Romeo Crennel. Even though the new staff led by Andy Reid gives Breaston a chance at a fresh start, it was never likely that he would be given the chance to play out the remaining three years on his five-year, $23 million deal, so the Chiefs cut him in February. Breaston will be 30 in August, so we doubt he’ll draw much interest in the way of a multi-year deal, but he should be able to convince a team that he can help in the slot and on returns. As ESPN.com pointed out, the Chargers and new OC Ken Whisenhunt could be a fit, given Breaston’s experience under Whisenhunt in Arizona, or Breaston could return to his childhood home in Pittsburgh. He’s definitely going to get a chance to compete for snaps somewhere, since he’s a solid pro and has the versatility to play outside or in the slot.
Brandon Gibson (Stl) – The solid but ultimately unexciting Gibson had his best year as a Ram (51/691/5) in his fourth year, but he doesn’t necessarily fit into the Rams plans going forward. Rookie Chris Givens was already seeing a ton of time by the end of the year, and rookie Brian Quick is expected to get more chances in 2013. Quick was a project and extremely raw coming out of Appalachian State, so the Rams are expecting him to step up and win the outside WR spot next season. Gibson is ideally used as depth at wide receiver, not as a starter like he was used for much of 2012. If Gibson wants to return to St. Louis in 2013, he’ll know that his role will be diminished unless the Rams’ young receivers falter with extended playing time. Otherwise, he should have no problem finding a job elsewhere, as long as he understands he won’t be much more than a #3 or #4.
Julian Edelman (NE) – Edelman is a really interesting free agent this off-season because, in short spurts, we’ve seen him mimic Wes Welker pretty well. He's also a good return man. He could be a much cheaper solution for the slot job with the Patriots than fellow-UFA Welker, but he also has a lot more questions. In nine games this year, Edelman posted 21/235/3 receiving on 32 targets, but he’s had problems with injuries throughout his career, missing time with both hand and foot injuries in 2012. Signing Edelman and letting Welker walk might well be a move that frees up money for the Patriots to allocate elsewhere, but it leaves them with a ton of questions with regard to durability and reliability. According to ESPN Boston, indications are that the Patriots are leaning toward bringing Edelman back into the fold, but that news doesn’t mean much for Welker, we’d guess. We could see both back, one back, or neither of them back. It is the Patriots, after all.
Kevin Ogletree (Dal) – Ogletree was the perfect example of a Week One tease in 2012, after he had 8/114/2 in the season opener and then never got anywhere near those numbers again for the rest of the season. Despite both WRs Dez Bryant and Miles Austin battling injuries throughout the year, Ogletree never stepped up to become the #3 WR the Cowboys have been trying to find for the last few years. In fact, his spot on the receiver pecking order was seriously challenged by second-year man Dwayne Harris as the season progressed. Ogletree was blanked three times and never had more than 2 receptions in any game in the second half of the year. In 15 appearances (one start), Ogletree ended up with 32/436/4 on 54 targets, putting him at 4.6 FPG. While it was easily his best season in four years with the Cowboys, it probably won’t be enough to earn him another contract with the team, as they are reportedly happy with the current depth they have at WR. Considering Ogletree isn’t much of a special teamer, he may not draw a lot of interest in the free agent market, but he could still land somewhere to help with WR depth.
Brandon Stokley (Den) – Stokley’s career was salvaged, thanks to his friendship with Peyton Manning. After working out with Manning during his recovery from multiple neck surgeries, the Broncos signed him to give their new QB a familiar face in the receiving corps. Acting primarily as the team’s slot receiver, he caught 45/544/5 on 57 targets, with nine starts in 15 games, putting him at 5.6 FPG. This comes a year after he had just a single catch in two games during a short stint with the Giants. In fact, it was his highest catch total since 2004, which not surprisingly, came as Manning’s teammate with the Colts. Stokley, who turns 37 in June, said he would like to keep playing for the Broncos but knows it’s up to the team. While Denver could look to add a better option through free agency or look to the draft, a relatively cheap one-year deal for Stokley would make sense, especially considering his relationship with Manning. He was very valuable to their passing game in 2012, no question.
Randy Moss (SF) – Moss came into 2012 with some modest expectations after sitting out the entire 2011 season. The 49ers used Moss as mostly a role player during the season, although he was elevated to the starting lineup when Mario Manningham went down. Moss still had some vertical speed left, but he had little else to bring to the table. He didn’t have much fantasy value, but did a fine job, catching 28/434/3 (15.5 YPC) on 49 targets (57.1% catch rate) for 3.8 FPG. Moss, who just turned 36, doesn’t have the same speed he once had, but he could still make plays downfield and was a nice, big target in the red zone. Moss, who proclaimed himself the greatest wide receiver of all time before the Super Bowl, wants to play in 2013, but he didn’t exactly like his reduced role with the 49ers in 2012. Moss obviously thinks of himself more highly than San Francisco did this season. Moss may want to be a featured wide receiver in the NFL once again, but it’s hard to think of any team that will give Moss a chance to be a top WR. Moss will likely have to take on another reduced role if he wants to play in the league next season at the age of 36. There’s no question the team would love for 2012 rookie A.J. Jenkins to emerge as a starter in 2013. As for Manningham, he could be released.
Mohamed Massaquoi (Cle) – Another injury-plagued season probably spells the end for Massaquoi in Cleveland. He battled a hamstring injury for most of the season before landing on the injured reserve with a knee problem. In nine games (five starts), Massaquoi had just 17/254/0 on 31 targets. Massaquoi’s numbers have dropped every year since he was a rookie in 2009, and while he had plenty of chances to succeed as a starter, it appears his time has run out with the team having more talented WRs like Josh Gordon and even Greg Little. Massaquoi isn’t a bad downfield threat when healthy, but between his injury issues in 2012 and concussion issues in the past, he won’t be a hot name in free agency.
Domenik Hixon (NYG) – A very capable player who has good speed but also big problems with injuries in recent years, Hixon is versatile and useful enough to attract attention on the open market from several teams. He played only two games in 2011 before tearing his ACL, but he rebounded nicely to post 39/567/2 in 13 games with the Giants, limited with an ankle injury at times. Valuable with the Giants because he’s an effective backup to the injury-prone Hakeem Nicks, it’s still possible that Hixon would prefer to try to find a greater role somewhere else, where he could be guaranteed the #3 WR job and a return job, as well. As the Giants are expected to promote promising second-year player Rueben Randle up the depth chart, even if Hixon returns, he’ll likely be the #4 receiver at best. If he proves himself healthy, he might get more guaranteed snaps elsewhere.
Donald Jones (Buf) – Although Jones is coming off his best statistical season, his future remains in doubt. Jones ended up playing a bigger role in 2012 thanks to the torn ACL that knocked WR David Nelson out early in the season. Jones would finish with 41/443/4 on 66 targets in 12 games, putting him 66th among WRs at 5.7 FPG. He was bother by a calf injury that caused him to miss some time down the stretch and eventually landed on the non-football/illness list for the last two games of the season. While the illness was never revealed, Jones did deal with a minor something he’s dealt with since college. Jones plans to be ready for OTAs, but is an unrestricted free agent after the team declined to tender him as a restricted free agent despite indications that the two sides were working on a deal. Jones is only 25-years-old, but his shaky injury history could hurt value on the market. He’s not expected back with the Bills, so he will have to latch on somewhere else and compete for a roster spot.
David Nelson (Buf) – Nelson had a 2012 season to forget after tearing his ACL in Week One. He was coming off a strong 2011 season that saw him catch 61/658/5 in 16 games (13 starts). Nelson is considered solid slot receiver with good size at 6-5, 214 lbs., which also makes him a nice red-zone threat. However, he is not expected to be tendered by the Bills, which would make him an unrestricted free agent. While Nelson hopes to be ready by OTAs, the Bills are expected to use WR Stevie Johnson in the slot more going forward and will look to add another receiver on the outside, so we expect Nelson to land somewhere else, if healthy, in 2013.
More options at this position can be viewed online
Restricted Free Agents
Victor Cruz (NYG) – Cruz is a restricted free agent, and as such, he could certainly find some takers willing to try to lure him away with a big deal, but there’s still no expectation that he’ll be anywhere but New York long-term. That said, Giants’ owner John Mara has told the Newark Star-Ledger that Cruz is currently asking for too much money, even though he remains a “priority” for the club to lock up long-term. It is perhaps a concern for the Giants that Cruz finished his 2012 season with a whimper, and also something they can use in contract negotiations. After scoring 6 TDs in a four-game stretch from Weeks Four through Seven, Cruz ranked an abysmal 41st among WRs, with 7.2 FPG over the final nine games of the season. Obviously, a large part of the Giants’ pass game struggles can be attributed to the play of QB Eli Manning and the injury issues of Hakeem Nicks, but Cruz wasn’t exactly helping him out late in the year. There’s still no reason to think Cruz won’t be back in New York, but he might have to compromise with the club more than he expected in, say, October.
Danario Alexander (SD) – Alexander came out of absolutely nowhere to become one of the league’s best stories in 2012, as he amazingly produced as the Chargers’ best receiver, despite not having a team until midway through the year. Alexander was released by the Rams in late August and didn’t up with the Chargers until mid-October. He made his Charger debut in Week Eight and ended up starting in six of his 10 appearances. The physically gifted Alexander dominated at times and made some big plays, and he quickly became QB Philip Rivers’ favorite target. He finished with 37/658/7 (17.8 YPC) on 61 targets (60.7% catch rate) and was tied for 14th among WRs, at 10.8 FPG. Although knee issues have plagued Alexander since entering the league in 2010, he was able to play significantly more snaps in 2012 compared to his two years with the Rams. That was a great sign, but he remains a pretty serious injury risk. He is a restricted free agent heading into 2013, and he would draw interest around the league if the Chargers didn’t lock him up. With that said, the Chargers look poised to bring back the intriguing Alexander, even with his past knee issues. He’ll turn only 25 this August, so the Chargers are hopeful that he can stay healthy because he has a ton of talent at a position where the Chargers are thin, so keeping him around is a relatively low-risk move. And if Alexander can stay healthy in 2013, he’ll likely see a long-term deal after the year. Like Laurent Robinson last season, however, Alexander might want to parlay his big year into big money before the carriage turns back into a pumpkin. He’s expected to get a second-round RFA tender, which would almost certainly have other teams backing off signing him.
Emmanuel Sanders (Pit) – Sanders will surely be thrust into a bigger role for the Steelers next fall, if he’s ready for it or not. Sanders was a marginal player at best as the #3 WR for the Steelers in 2012, even with chances for extended playing time because of injuries. Yet he’s set to take on a bigger role next season, as it’s highly unlikely that the Steelers will bring back WR Mike Wallace. Sanders hauled in 44 catches for 626 yards and 1 TD, but his role could drastically increase next year. WR Antonio Brown probably isn’t a true #1 WR in the strictest sense, but he’ll more than likely be forced into the role, with Sanders – unless they acquire another strong option at wideout – getting bumped up to the #2 spot. Sanders has had some troubles with injuries during his career, as he’s missed nine games in his first three seasons. Still, the Steelers are fully expected to bring Sanders back, and he’s also a candidate to see a contract extension.
Jordan Shipley (Jac) – In a reminder to football fans that no two knee injuries are the same, it took Shipley well over a calendar year to recover from the torn ACL he suffered in Week Two of 2011 with the Bengals. In fact, it took him until his third team of the 2012 season to find his footing. He was cut by the Bengals in August and landed in Tampa, where he was cut early in the season after fumbling on a punt return. In November, he signed with the Jaguars, and was actually pretty productive, with 23/244/1 receiving on 39 targets over the final six weeks of the season, including 7/51/1 on 9 targets in Week Seventeen. Remember, Shipley’s a guy who caught 50 balls as a rookie in 2010, so he definitely has the ability to be a solid hands guy from the slot, and it’s absolutely viable for the Jags to tender him at a decent price to ensure he’s back with Jacksonville in 2013. He’ll have a job next year, two years removed from his nasty injury.
Brandon Banks (Was) – The diminutive Banks (5’7” and 155 pounds) is almost strictly a return specialist at this point. He will see the occasional snap on offense on a gimmick run play or on a screen pass. He finished with 8 catches for 15 yards and added 7 carries for 36 yards. Banks was active in 12 games this season, and he finished with 705 combined return yards, with 527 kickoff return yards and 178 punt return yards. He doesn’t bring any value to a team outside of his return-game abilities, so he will have a limited number of teams looking for his services.
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Tight Ends
Unrestricted Free Agents
Tony Gonzalez (Atl) – Gonzalez didn’t decide until late in the 2011 season to return for 2012, but that decision might take more time after the way the Falcons were eliminated from the playoffs. Gonzalez said for most of the 2012 season that he was “95 percent” sure he’d retire at the end of the year, but it won’t be due to a drop off in play. Gonzalez was arguably the league’s most consistent TE this season, finishing with 93/930/8 on 122 targets, putting him 3rd among TEs with 8.8 FPG. It was Gonzalez’s best season in his four with the Falcons and the sixth straight without missing a game (he’s missed just two his entire career). With the Falcons blowing a big lead in the NFC Championship, it’s fair to wonder if Gonzalez is rethinking his decision to call in a career. Reports indicate that Gonzalez is wavering on retirement and that the whole organization is trying to get him to return for another season. Between the Falcons getting so close and Gonzalez still among the best at the position, it would make sense for Gonzalez to return, although it would be surprising to see him land anywhere else other than Atlanta.
Jared Cook (Ten) – The Titans appear ready to bring back the talented but frustrating Cook for at least the 2013 season, as the franchise tag as a TE is very much in play here. However, if the Titans and Cook can’t come to terms on a long-term contract, the two sides could be headed to a battle over whether Cook should be classified as a tight end or as a wide receiver, which would be about a $4-5 million difference in potential franchise tags. The Titans and Cook don’t appear to be close to terms for a long-term contract, so the two sides could be headed to an arbitrator. Cook wants to be tagged as a WR because he played more than 60% of his snaps out wide or in the slot, a similar argument to what Aaron Hernandez was poised to make before the Patriots locked him up with an extension. Cook may have a good chance of winning his case, as the CBA states that the franchise tender applies to the position where the player participated in the most plays. Regardless, Cook in some ways took a step back from 2011’s promising career year, and while he flashed at times, he never put together a dominant performance, capping out at 77 yards in Week Three and topping 50 yards only four times. In 13 games, Cook posted 44/523/4 on 71 targets (11.9 YPC, 62%), and he ranked 16th among all TEs with 5.9 FPG. Cook’s season ended prematurely with a torn rotator cuff, a blow going into free agency. Yet that didn’t stop Cook from criticizing the offense, blaming most of his struggles on the coaching and play-calling. Titan HC Mike Munchak promised during interviews at the NFL Combine to get Cook more involved in the Titan offense in 2013, but we’ll believe it when we actually see it, as the team had plenty of opportunities to get Cook more involved in 2012. If there is one positive, new OC Dowell Loggains looked to be getting Cook more involved in the offense when he took over as interim OC in 2012, before Cook’s season-ending injury. Of course, this all boils down to whether or not the Titans and Cook can come to some sort of an agreement this off-season, which may not be so easy.
Dustin Keller (NYJ) – Keller’s a very talented TE whose skills have probably gone to waste the last few years in New York, without anything resembling consistent QB play and also shaky play-calling. Still, his 2012 season had to be considered a major disappointment after the career numbers he posted in 2011. Durability is officially a serious concern. He opened the season with a hamstring issue, which caused him to sit out Weeks Two through Five. He returned until Week Thirteen, when an ankle injury ended up sidelining him for the rest of the season. In what was easily his worst season in five with the Jets, Keller had 28/317/2 (11.3 YPC) on 36 targets to finish with 5.5 FPG. The Jets could use the franchise tag on Keller, but they’ll also explore a long-term extension, although they have yet to meet with Keller’s agent to discuss one. He should draw a lot of interest on the open market should he reach it, and it’s feasible that he would have a better chance of reaching his fantasy potential with a better QB than Mark Sanchez. For example, if Tony Gonzalez decides to retire officially, he could be a nice replacement in Atlanta. He would also represent a big upgrade for teams like the Dolphins, Bears, and Buccaneers.
Brandon Myers (Oak) – The Raiders lacked any consistency at the WR position between Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, so it was even more impressive that the little-known Myers had a complete breakout season in 2012. Myers had just 16 catches for 151 yards last year in 16 games, but he jumped up to 79 catches for 806 yards and 4 TDs to finish 11thamong TEs this year, with 6.5 FPG. He showed excellent rapport with Carson Palmer, and his hands made him an ideal weapon in short yardage for the Raiders. What was disconcerting, however, was how he wallowed in mediocrity to finish the season. He posted only 10/85 receiving on 17 targets over his last four games, after posting 14/130/1 in Week Thirteen alone. According to ESPN, the Raiders will let Myers test the market in free agency until deciding whether to bring him back, but the fit here is mutual and it might convince Myers to sign back in Oakland after a brief courtship. He’s more of a possession receiver isn’t a particularly dynamic talent, so he might not get as much money on the open market as his production would indicate, and he really does have only one good season to his name, so other clubs might be wary.
Martellus Bennett (NYG) – We loved the Giants’ signing of Bennett on a one-year “prove it” deal in 2012, and Bennett finally lived up to some of his potential as a talented player with a career year, posting 55/626/5 on 89 targets (61.8%), and finished 16th among TEs with 5.8 FPG. But even with Bennett being a consistent contributor throughout the year, he faded in a big way (along with the whole passing game) after catching TDs in each of the Giants’ first three games, going without another score until Week Thirteen. But the play of QB Eli Manning might have been the biggest concern for the Giants, and Bennett likely did enough to earn himself a contract to keep him in East Rutherford. The Giants aren’t expected to use the franchise tag this year, and Bennett would have been a candidate for that, but the Giants have some financial concerns, and they’re going to be negotiating extensions for WRs Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks. In other words, they might take Bennett up on the “hometown discount” he hinted he might be willing to accept after the 2012 season.
Fred Davis (Was) – The Redskins are facing some serious salary-cap issues, and it looks like Davis could be out of the mix for the Redskins. That’s a shame because Washington finished the season 7-2 after Davis went down for the year with an Achilles injury, including a seven-game win streak to end the regular season, and Davis really could have augmented that attack with more experience in the offense. TE Logan Paulsen filled in well for Davis at the end of the year, and it looks like the Redskins’ will make re-signing Paulsen their priority. Paulsen doesn’t bring anything to the Redskin passing game, but he proved to be a superior run blocker in an offense that puts an emphasis on running the ball. For fantasy, Davis was a huge disappointment in 2012, even when he was healthy enough to play in the first seven games of the year. He finished the year with just 24 catches for 325 yards and no TDs, a year after hauling in 59/796/3 from QB Rex Grossman in just 12 games. However, he was starting to emerge just before the injury. Davis was suspended four games in 2011 after repeatedly failing drug tests, so he does have some baggage with his off-the-field history. Davis might be one of the top tight ends to hit the free-agent market, but he could see a limited number of interested teams as he recovers from his Achilles injury. The Washington Post did report that Davis is ahead of schedule in his recovery and could be running by OTAs, but he still is not a 100% lock to be ready for the start of the 2013 season.
More options at this position can be viewed online
Restricted Free Agents
Dennis Pitta (TE, Bal) – Heading into their respective third seasons, Pitta and TE Ed Dickson had been running neck-and-neck with nether showing enough to truly break out as the team’s unquestioned starter. After 2012, there’s little question Pitta has finally grasped that role, although he still has room for improvement. Although Dickson started 11 games to Pitta’s 5, Pitta was clearly the better option, catching 61/669/7 on 91 targets in 16 appearances, which was good for 7th among TEs with 7.3 FPG. Pitta’s on-and-off-the-field relationship with his QB is strong, and he gave Joe Flacco a reliable short and intermediate threat and was a nice red-zone option as well. As a restricted free agent, he will probably receive a second-round tender, although he could draw interest from other teams. With the Ravens looking to lock up Flacco with a long-term deal, they’d be wise to invest in their receiving corps and considering how well Flacco and he clicked in 2012, we’d expect Pitta back with the Ravens in 2013.
Ed Dickson (Bal) – Dickson and Dennis Pitta came into the league together in 2010, but it wasn’t until this past season that one of them emerged as the go-to option at the TE position. Unfortunately for Dickson, Pitta is the one who broke out in 2012, even though Dickson started more games (11-5). Pitta had a nice rapport with QB Joe Flacco, while Dickson saw his numbers decline. After a solid 2011 season that saw him start every game and post 54/528/5, He ended up with 21/225/0 on 33 targets in 13 games, good for just 1.7 FPG. Dickson also battled a knee issue and was forced to miss three games. Even though his numbers dropped off and Pitta stepped up, the team is still happy with Dickson, as HC John Harbaugh noted how well he blocked and how he continues to be a dangerous vertical threat. As a restricted free agent, he will probably be looking at an original-pick tender to return to Baltimore in 2013.
Logan Paulsen (Was) – Paulsen will never set the fantasy world on fire, but he proved to be an effective tight end in the Redskin offense in 2012. Washington finished the season 7-2 after starting TE Fred Davis went down for the year with an Achilles injury, including a seven-game win streak to end the regular season. Paulsen filled in for Davis at the end of the year, and it looks like the Redskins’ will make re-signing him their priority. Paulsen doesn’t bring anything to the Redskin passing game, but he proved to be a superior run blocker in an offense that puts an emphasis on running the ball. The Redskins are facing some salary-cap problems this off-season, so Davis likely won’t be back in Washington next season. Paulsen, who turned 26 in February, started 10 games in 2012, catching 25 passes for 308 yards and 1 TD. He will likely be Washington’s starting TE in 2013, but he won’t have much fantasy value.
Jake Ballard (NE) – Ballard was considered a savvy move by the Patriots last off-season, claiming him off waivers when the Giants opted to take a risk and expose Ballard as he underwent ACL and micro-fracture surgery. He missed the entire 2012 season, but he’s progressing as expected and could be ready for May OTAs if all goes right. Given Ballard’s injury history, it’s unlikely another team will try to pry him from the Patriots, so the Patriots could well get to see if their gamble will pay off. Assuming he’s healthy, the balanced TE could be an important piece for the Patriots in 2013, given the injury history of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Remember, he averaged nearly 16 YPC as a Giant in 2011, so he’s not a stiff as a receiver.
Jeff Cumberland (NYJ) – As Dustin Keller’s backup, Cumberland saw more action than the Jets probably would have liked, playing in 15 games and catching 29/359/3 on 51 targets. Cumberland’s season-highs included 4 catches for 58 yards, which isn’t a surprise because he’s not much of a mover. In fact, it’s amazing that he has even made it this far as a prospect, given his undrafted status coming out of Illinois three years ago. He’s a balanced TE who isn’t a great pass catcher or blocker, but more than adequate enough to hold down a #2 job. But we wouldn’t be surprised if he’s back in New York just because the Jets need some continuity if they’re not able to retain Keller, given their tougher financial situation.
More options at this position can be viewed online
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Placekickers
Unrestricted Free Agents
Steven Hauschka (Sea) – Hauschka’s season came to an unfortunate and abrupt end because of a calf injury suffered during the Wild Card round against the Redskins. We’re guessing the awful playing surface at FedEx Field certainly didn’t help Hauschka with his calf injury. Hauschka’s injury during the playoffs ended his career-best year, which saw him finish the year 24/27 on field goals. He also finished a perfect 23/23 on kicks from 49 yards or closer. The Seahawks aren’t worried about the calf injury, and he seems like a logical candidate for the team’s franchise tag this off-season. Franchising him would cost the team about $2.9 million, which is a price the Seahawks could live with, considering Hauschka’s huge leg.
Rob Bironas (Ten) – The Titans seem intent on bringing back the veteran Bironas for a ninth season. Bironas, who turned 35 in January, has been one of the most consistent kickers in the league since he broke in with the Titans in 2005. In 2012, he actually had his worst season since 2006, missing 6 field goals and connecting on 80.6% of his kicks (25/31). He had hit 84% of his kicks or better the last five years, including hitting at a 90% clip or better the last two years. The Titans look poised to use their franchise tag on TE Jared Cook this off-season, so the team will look to lock up Bironas to long-term contract. The Titans consider signing Bironas to be one of their top priorities, so it would be a shock if he ends up with another team at this point.
Lawrence Tynes (NYG) – Tynes was a fantasy stud for 13 weeks, converting 32 of 36 field goals in his action over that span, but he really let fantasy players down in his four games after that, converting only 1 of his 3 field goals over the final four weeks of the season. So Tynes will enter free agency with a whimper, and the Giants are already planning for his departure, signing former Cowboy kicker David Buehler in February. According to the New York Daily News, both the Giants and Tynes are expressing mutual interest in his return, but Tynes is also curious to find out what he’s worth on the open market. The Giants don’t have much financial flexibility, especially with a guy like Victor Cruz perhaps commanding a big extension, so paying premium for a 35-year-old kicker wouldn’t be the most prudent of moves.
Shayne Graham (Hou) – Graham, a veteran who just turned 35, is absolutely solid enough to hold a job in the NFL. But is he a guy who is going to be a priority for the Texans? We find that unlikely. In 2012, he completed 31 of 38 field goal attempts (81.6%), and while he was perfect inside 40 yards (19/19), he went only 11/18 from beyond 40, including 4/9 beyond 50. Remember also that the Texans have 2012 fifth-round pick Randy Bullock on the roster, against whom Graham was competing last year until Bullock landed on IR with a groin injury in August. Bullock is certainly going to get another chance to compete for the job this summer, and the Texans could wait to bring in competition until closer to training camp. Graham should land in a camp somewhere for competition, but he’s not a guy who’s going to get a ton of early attention on the market.
Nick Folk (NYJ) – Folk’s been a guy whose job has seemingly been hanging from a thread ever since he arrived in New York in 2010, and he really hasn’t gotten any better over the years. In 2012, he converted 77.8% of his kicks (21/27), marking the fourth consecutive year he completed fewer than 80% of his kicks, and finished in the bottom five in the NFL in that category. So it seems reasonable to assume that Folk, even if he returns to the Jets or draws interest on the open market, won’t be guaranteed anything resembling a starting job. If he’s going to kick in the NFL next year, he’s going to have to earn it.
Nick Novak (SD) – The Chargers picked up Novak late in September to fill in for Nate Kaeding, who injured his groin during practice. Novak also took over for Kaeding in 2011 when Kaeding tore his ACL, so the Chargers knew what they were getting with Novak. He proved to be a reliable kicker for the Chargers, playing in the Chargers’ final 13 games and making 18/20 (90%) kicks with his only two misses coming from 50 yards or longer. Kaeding ended up latching on with the Dolphins at the end of last year, kicking in their final two games of the year. Novak, who is 31, has been fairly consistent the last two years, making 45/54 (83.3%), so he should garner a little bit of interest if the Chargers don’t re-sign him, but he isn’t going to be a guy who will consistently make longer kicks.
Billy Cundiff (SF) – Cundiff started the regular season with the Redskins, but he connected on a miserable 7/12 (58.3%) of his kicks before getting the boot after five games. The Ravens also cut Cundiff in the pre-season after rookie K Justin Tucker beat him out for the job. Cundiff latched on with 49ers at the start of the postseason to give struggling K David Akers some competition. Akers missed 13 field goals during the regular season, but Cundiff couldn’t beat him out to kick in the playoffs, and the 49ers eventually cut him after the Divisional Round. Cundiff, who turns 33 in March, has never really been an elite kicker in the NFL, but he’ll likely be in some team’s camp next summer competing for a job.
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
Offensive Linemen
Top-5 Unrestricted Free Agents
Ryan Clady (Den) – Clady had the important role of protecting QB Peyton Manning’s blindside in his first season back from multiple neck surgeries and did an amazing job. The Broncos gave up the second-fewest sacks (21) with Clady being considering one of the best LTs in the league. He’s come to the end of his five-year rookie deal and will look to cash in for the first time in his career. VP of Football Operations John Elway has already said the team will use the franchise tag on Clady with the hope they can work out a long-term deal. However, Elway did say the shoulder surgery Clady needed does change things, especially since the recovery time is expected to be a 5-6 month process. He should be ready for training camp, but he could miss the rest of the team’s off-season activities. He said he won’t sign the tender right away with the hope to get a deal done during the summer, but did say he’ll eventually sign it. We doubt the Broncos will let Manning’s most important and best OL go anywhere, so we fully expect Clady to remain with the team for at least another season.
Jake Long (Mia) – Long hasn’t been a bad player for the Dolphins in his five years with the team, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations, either. He’s now missed six games over the last two seasons, including the last four of 2012 thanks to a torn triceps that landed him on the IR. Besides the biceps, Long has battled knee, back, and biceps problems, all of which have affected his play. The quandary the Dolphins are facing is whether or not they will pay the $10 million/year Long is reportedly looking for to help protect QB Ryan Tannehill or let him walk, knowing it won’t be an easy position to fill, even if Long’s play has declined. Long will be 28 in May, but should have plenty of suitors. GM Jeff Ireland has called the situation “complicated,” and Long already said his return to the Dolphins would be “on them.”
Branden Albert (KC) – The Chiefs seem pretty concerned about Albert’s back injury in 2012, perhaps laying the foundation for his departure from the organization. HC Andy Reid called the injury “fairly significant,” but Albert missed only three games in 2012. The Chiefs don’t sound ready to bring back Albert, or they’re at least using his back injury as a negotiation ploy. There has been some talk that the Chiefs may use the #1 overall pick in April’s draft to take Texas A&M LT Luke Joeckel and move Albert to guard, but he wants to stay at left tackle. WR Dwayne Bowe is this Chiefs’ top free-agent priority, so if they can lock him up to a long-term deal, Albert could see the franchise tag. If he hits the market, expect the linemen-starved Bears to take a run at Albert. Bear GM Phil Emery worked as the Chiefs’ scouting director when Kansas City drafted him in 2008.
Andre Smith (Cin) – It took some time for Smith to develop, but the former #6 overall pick in 2009 had by far his best season in 2013, and he’s now considered one of the best right tackles in the game. The Bengals appear ready to bring back Smith, either by coming to terms on a long-term contract or through a franchise tag. The Bengals have to choose between Smith or RE Michael Johnson getting the team’s franchise tag. Smith has had an interesting off-season after being arrested for allegedly bringing a handgun into an Atlanta airport. The arrest shouldn’t affect his value too much, but it’s definitely another concern for a player who’s had weight issues in the past. Bengal HC Marvin Lewis said Smith is a smart guy that got into a dumb situation. Still, the Bengals appear ready to pony up to keep him around, despite his recent brush with the law.
Sebastian Vollmer (NE) – Vollmer is one of the league’s best right tackles, but he has the versatility to play left tackle as well. The Patriots have a couple top free agents at other positions with CB Aqib Talib and WR Wes Welker, but Vollmer may be the Patriots’ top priority. He didn’t play in Week Twelve in 2012 because of his knee problems, and he has had some back issues in the past. Vollmer, who will turn 29 in July, did recently undergo a minor arthroscopic knee surgery, so that could raise some minor red flags. The Patriots don’t appear ready to place the franchise tag on him, but the team wants to lock him up for the long term. Patriot QB Tom Brady signed a three-year contract extension that will free up salary cap for the team, so Vollmer could be one of the beneficiaries of Brady’s decision to take less money.
Defensive Linemen
Top-5 Unrestricted Free Agents
Cliff Avril (Det) – Avril is looking for Mario Williams money this off-season, and he has said that the money will be the deciding factor for where he lands. The Lions aren’t looking to break the bank, so he may have played his final snap in Detroit. Avril, who will turn 27 in April, is entering the prime of his career and is natural pass rusher, so he could have plenty of money thrown his way. Lion GM Martin Mayhew said Avril is versatile enough to play a 4-3 DE or a 3-4 OLB, so that will certainly add to his potential value on the open market, with several teams switching defensive schemes this off-season. He finished with 35 combined tackles, 9.5 sacks, and 2 forced fumbles this season. Avril had 11 sacks in 2011, and he has 39.5 sacks and 16 forced fumbles in five career years with the Lions. He is the head of the class for pass rushers this off-season, so he should have his choice of a destination for 2013.
Michael Johnson (Cin) – Johnson may not be a household name, but he was a big part of a dangerous Bengal DL in 2012, and that could allow him to cash in for the first time in his career. Johnson had a career high 11.5 sacks, which equaled his total of his first three seasons and his 52 tackles also set a new high, while allowed him to rank 6th among DEs with 5.7 FPG. As Cincinnati’s biggest free agent on defense, the team would like to bring him back, but negotiations hadn’t gone far as of late February. With RT Andre Smith as another important free agent, the Bengals could have a decision to make once the 3/4 franchise tag deadline hits, although Johnson would likely be a higher priority. In fact, as of 3/1, when this article was published, Johnson was fully expected to get the Franchise tag, so he will be back.
Michael Bennett (TB) – After signing a first-round tender as an RFA before the 2012 season, Bennett came through with his best year as a pro and is primed to cash in this off-season. Bennett racked up 41 tackles, 9 sacks, and 3 FF, tying him for 31st among DEs with 4.1 FPG in 16 starts. The versatile Bennett also lined up at DT and was part of a strong Buccaneer DL. He is expected to test the open market, but may have gained some leverage in negotiations with the Bucs after DE Da’Quan Bowers was arrested in mid-February for illegally carrying a weapon. According to Buccaneer GM Mark Dominik, the team won’t use the franchise tag, so we expect the team would like to get something done before free agency opens on 3/12, although Bennett may be set on testing the market after a career year.
Dwight Freeney (Ind) – The Colts have almost no interest in bringing back the veteran Freeney, which says a lot about Freeney’s level of play in 2012. Freeney said he would’ve taken a hometown discount to stay with the Colts, but Indy was prepared to move on from their former pass-rushing star, who has spent all 11 seasons in Indy. In 2012, playing in an unfamiliar 3-4 hybrid system, Freeney finished the year with just 12 combined tackles and 5 sacks, his lowest sack total since 2007, when he played in just nine games. Freeney, who turned 33 in February, is probably best served to play on passing downs going forward, and his name has already been tied to the Seahawks, Jets, Broncos, Cowboys, Giants, and Falcons. He said that he has a lot left in the tank, and it looks like he’ll have his choice of where to continue his career and prove that he has something left. He likely won’t see big money after his disappointing 2012, but he should have his choice of where to land. As a situational rusher, and ideally in a 4-3, he should still be able to produce.
Osi Umenyiora (NYG) – In ways, Umenyiora off-season is going just fine after he successfully proposed to former Miss Universe Leila Lopes. Now, the free-agent Umenyiora will be looking for the right team to make him a proposal this off-season. (We’ll be here all day!) He is coming off a bit of a sub-par season, with 43 combined tackles and just 6 sacks, his lowest sack total since 2006. Osi is not expected to return the Giants, as the organization is facing some salary-cap issues and is attempting to get younger. Umenyiora restructured his contract in 2012 and played behind Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul, so the Giants aren’t going to offer Osi the kind of money he will demand. Umenyiora isn’t the same pass-rushing force that he once was with the Giants, but he can still get to opposing QBs in passing situations. He has already reportedly drawn some interest from teams like the Seahawks, Falcons, and Buccaneers, the former two struggling to generate a rush in the postseason, perhaps keeping them from a Super Bowl.
Linebackers
Top-5 Unrestricted Free Agents
Paul Kruger (Bal) – While a lot of attention may have been given to LB Ray Lewis in the playoffs, it was Kruger who shined for the Raven defense. He had 4.5 sacks in the playoffs after racking up 9 during the regular season, which helped him to a tie for 18th among DEs with 4.9 FPG. With Kruger testing free agency for the first time in his career, he has said he’d like to return to the Ravens, but he knows it might not be in the cards since they have other priorities in free agency, like locking up QB Joe Flacco. If the Ravens need to use the franchise tag on Flacco, it will probably prohibit them from bringing Kruger back, especially if reports are true that he’s looking for $8 million/year. With Kruger coming off a season with career highs in sacks (9) and tackles (42) in 15 games, he’s expected to draw a lot of interest around the league, including in the division for a team like the Browns.
Anthony Spencer (Dal) – Spencer played on a franchise tender in 2012 for $8.8 million, but will be looking to make a lot more after having his best season to date. Despite playing in 14 games, Spencer led the team with 95 tackles and nearly doubled his sack total from the season before by registering 11 in 2012. A shoulder injury cost him two games early in the season, but he bounced back and showed no ill effects of it for the rest of the year. Spencer would like to return to the team, but with new DC Monte Kiffin bringing his 4-3 scheme, he would probably transition to DE, which he hasn’t done since college, although he is willing to do so. Executive VP Stephen Jones called Spencer a “great football player” and didn’t rule out using the franchise tag, although it would cost the team $10.6 million if they gave it to Spencer for the second straight season. Owner/GM Jerry Jones admitted the team has “no money” to give him a long-term deal, so he might be testing the market, with a team like the Saints being a possible suitor, as it would reunite Spencer with former Cowboy DC and new Saint DC, Rex Ryan.
Brian Urlacher (Chi) – The Bears are in full transition mode under new HC Marc Trestman, and the Bears have been very noncommittal on free agent LB Urlacher. Not surprisingly, Urlacher wants to stick with the organization that he broke into the league with in 2000, and he is willing to take a hometown discount. The Bears have to decide just how much Urlacher actually has left in his playing career at this point, and whether he has much to offer going forward. Urlacher, who will turn 35 in May, clearly took a step back in 2012, as he dealt with persistent knee issues. He played in just 12 games this season, finishing with 68 combined tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries, and 1 INT. Chicago Sun-Times writer Sean Jensen surveyed eight officials from around the league, and seven of them believed that Urlacher could still be a contributor in 2013. The officials also thought that he would have interested teams if the Bears decide not to re-sign him. The Bears have to decide if Urlacher has anything left in the tank before they offer him a contract.
Connor Barwin (Hou) – Barwin remains one of the top pass-rushing linebackers available this off-season, despite a lackluster season getting to opposing quarterbacks. Barwin had a disappointing 2012, with 44 combined tackles, 1 fumble recovery, and just 3 sacks. Barwin’s sack total plummeted from 11.5 sacks in 2011 to just 3 sacks this season, but he still played on 94% of the Texans’ defensive snaps, more than any other player in their front seven. Still, the Texans have made re-signing him one of the team’s top priorities this off-season. Barwin, 26, has previously turned down contract extensions just after the 2011 season and before the 2012 season, so he seems destined to hit the open market. The Texans have also discussed using the team’s franchise tag on the outside linebacker. He won’t have nearly as much value this off-season after seeing sack total decrease from 11.5 to 3, but he still will command a decent-sized contract on the open market.
Daryl Smith (Jac) – One of the more underrated linebackers in football when healthy, Smith has wallowed with a bad team in Jacksonville for his entire nine-year career. And unfortunately for him, he missed the first 14 games of the 2012 season with a groin injury, before jumping back onto the saddle in Week Sixteen to prove he was healthy heading into free agency. But Smith will be entering his age-31 season in 2013, and coming off a season in which he suffered a major injury, it’s unlikely he is going to receive the big payday he’s hoping for. A reliable if not prolific IDP, Smith had been a top-40 LB in each of the last three seasons before 2012, but his biggest asset to an NFL defense is his versatility. A good player in coverage, he can play both strong-side and weak-side linebacker, and he’s the type of player who won’t be a liability if he’s playing three downs. Given his age and recent injury history, a contender would be wise to try to lure Smith with the prospect of winning games, something he hasn’t done much of in his NFL career
Defensive Backs
Top-5 Unrestricted Free Agents
Aqib Talib (NE) – With the Patriots in dire need of help in their secondary, they sent a 2013 4th-round pick to the Buccaneers in exchange for Talib and a 2013 7th-round pick with Talib still having one game left on a four-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. He quickly became New England’s top CB, although considering their lack of talent at the position, it wasn’t much of a surprise, since outside of his off-field issues, he’s a good player. Talib has shown interest in testing the free agent market, and since he’s probably the best free agent available at the position, he’s likely to get a multi-year deal. It’s suspected that that Patriots are hesitant to give Talib a big contract and could be giving him the transition tag, which would pay just under $9 million for the 2013 season. In 10 games between the Bucs and Patriots, Talib had 10 PDs and 2 INTs, including a return for a TD. He battled hip and thigh issues with New England, but he missed just the season finale before returning for the playoffs.
Sean Smith (Mia) – In today’s NFL, with big receivers and tight ends dominating more and more, Smith offers teams a rare opportunity to acquire a corner on the open market with the size to match up with the Calvin Johnsons and Brandon Marshalls of the world. At 6’3” and close to 220 pounds, Smith is a physical corner who is willing to jam receivers to get them off their game, and he’s also a sure tackler. Something like that would be hugely appealing to a team like the Eagles, who are looking to redefine their defense with some physical play after two largely disappointing seasons with the likes of Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie playing inconsistently and with questionable effort. Smith will be only 26 in July, so he’ll clearly be looking for a major payday, and given the success the Seahawks have had with big CBs in Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman, Smith should draw plenty of interest on the open market. According to the Miami Herald, the Dolphins have interest in retaining him, even on the franchise tag, but they might scoff at his price if they choose not to franchise him. If Smith hits the open market, he might draw more interest than any other defensive free agent.
Jairus Byrd (Buf) – Byrd has easily been one of, if not the best player for Buffalo’s defense in his four years with the team, including another strong season in 2012. He racked up 76 tackles, 6 PDs, 5 INTs, and 4 FF, good for 5.8 FPG (tied for 39th among DBs). At just 26-years-old, Byrd is considered one of the best safeties in the league and would certainly draw a ton of interest with his first chance at free agency. However, the team would like to lock him up with a long-term deal, and if all else fails, will use the franchise tag, which is expected to cost around $6.8 million for 2013. The Bills defense appeared to be turning the corner in the second half of last year, and if Byrd is manning the middle of the field again in 2013, they should continue to improve.
Dashon Goldson (SF) – Goldson is known for making “splash” plays. Indeed, he has 9 INTs over the last two seasons from the safety position, which is certainly impressive. At the top of his game, he can cover the best TEs in the NFL, which is becoming more and more important every year. But he’s also prone to lapses in coverage, and giving up plays down the field. That’s why the 49ers are reluctant to offer him the franchise tag for the second consecutive season, according to CSN Bay Area, and he might have to look for his big-money deal on the open market. He’ll be 29 in September, meaning he’s approaching the end of his prime, and the 49ers might choose to revamp their secondary, which was clearly the weakness of their generally excellent defense. Goldson’s a good player who might have gotten a little bit too much press the last couple of seasons, and it may have artificially inflated his value. Count on the 49ers, one of the best personnel-evaluating teams in the game, to know what he’s worth.
Brent Grimes (Atl) – The Falcons suffered a big blow defensively in Week One when Grimes, their best corner, went down with a torn Achilles tendon and missed the rest of the year. It was one of the factors in the Falcons’ fall from 12th to 24th in total yards allowed from 2011 to 2012, although another huge part of that was the Falcons’ improvement offensively, especially in terms of being able to strike quickly. That said, he is probably a better all-around player than Dunta Robinson or Asante Samuel, and retaining him would give the Falcons the strong depth they desired at CB when they traded from Samuel last season in the first place. But he’s coming off one of the most notoriously fickle injuries in football (although his rehab is going well), and he’s going to be 30 in July, so his chances of locking up a significant long-term deal feel unlikely at this point. It’s entirely possible Grimes is willing to give the Falcons a hometown discount to keep him, but he’d be wise to shop around to see if any of the many CB-starved teams around the NFL are willing to guarantee him a little bit more than your standard “prove it” deal.
Note: We have a complete list of 2013 free agents here
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