Hansen on Strategy
by John Hansen, Publisher
Published, 11/7/14
Fantasy players have never been as baffled as they are right now, and the odds are good that your favorite fantasy expert is wrong this year more than he or she usually is. There are so many reasons for this – some of them I covered last week in my guide to making tough lineup decisions – that it’s really pointless to go into them.
I’m actually doing fairly well in the leagues I’m focusing on, which are the (startup dynasty this year) FantasyGuru.com Staff League (7-2), the 14-team and ultra-competitive Yahoo Friends & Family League (6-3), and the SiriusXM Celebrity league (5-4, but coming on strong). I’m in a few other leagues that I’m not managing properly because I’m spending my time on site work. In the two leagues in which I challenged subscribers to compete against me in the NFFC Cutline championship, I have not make a single WW move all year (there are minimal WW moves, like once a month), but I’m still faring pretty well.
I probably could be doing a little better if I invested a little more time on my leagues, but it’s just not my focus. When something happens that can affect the Waiver Wire or the overall landscape, the last thing I usually do is check in on my leagues, although I have spent time on the celebrity league just not to be embarrassed.
At this point, it’s more therapeutic for me to try to think positively rather than lament about how difficult it is to handicap the NFL on a weekly basis. And since we’re past the halfway point and cruising toward the playoffs, I thought it would be useful to completely reset the playing field and lay out how I see the positions stacking up from now through Week Sixteen.
This overview is a combination of weekly lineup guidance and roster management. I’ve also thrown in some quick thoughts on a few key players throughout the spectrum. I also took a quick look at the best matchups for the key playoff Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen.
Quarterbacks
Weekly starters:
Andrew Luck
Peyton Manning
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Don’t ever bench one of these guys. Thanks.
Moving on, there’s a dropoff from here, but most of these options below are solid starters in a 12-team league. The problem occurs when you have two or more of them, which is when you have to look at each player’s matchup:
Matthew Stafford
Ben Roethlisberger
Tom Brady
Jay Cutler
Ryan Tannehill
Matt Ryan
Carson Palmer
Tony Romo – Obviously needs to be healthy
That’s a very decent group, but the next step down also has some far-from-hopeless options, including:
Philip Rivers
Cam Newton – Assuming he picks up the production
Russell Wilson – Production dries up if he stops running
Mark Sanchez – Has some upside from this spot
Colin Kaepernick – Has to keep running
Again, if you have two players listed above, you might be playing the matchups each week and doing the best you can. I’m sure it hasn’t been easy, but you can only make the best lineup decisions for you your team…and let the chips fall where they may. If one guy keeps outscoring another, start using that guy.
If you’re still looking for a QB, the next tiers consists of passable starters and high-end backups you may want to consider over one of the options listed in the tier above:
Joe Flacco
Kyle Orton
Eli Manning
Robert Griffin III
Blake Bortles
Andy Dalton – Obviously, he’s a week-to-week proposition
Before we truly get to the bottom of the 2014 category, let’s create another grouping just to showcase a couple of low-end guys who have a chance to put up solid digits the rest of the way:
Josh McCown
Zach Mettenberger
Brian Hoyer – They could still have Cameron and Gordon on the field
Alex Smith
And finally, the bottom of the 2014 barrel
Teddy Bridgewater
Derek Carr
Michael Vick
Ryan Mallett
Austin Davis
Best Playoff Week Schedules (Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen)
- Matthew Stafford – CHI, TB, MIN, @CHI
- Drew Brees – @PIT, CAR, @CHI, ATL
- Tony Romo – PHI, @CHI, @PHI, IND
Running Backs
Weekly starters:
DeMarco Murray
Jamaal Charles
Le'Veon Bell
Matt Forte
Marshawn Lynch
Andre Ellington
LeSean McCoy
Arian Foster
First and foremost, if you own one of these players, you should be starting them.
Pretty obvious list, I know, but we’re going to be digging pretty deep here. Next up, I would think you should be extremely inclined to start one of these players in the next group each week:
Eddie Lacy
Lamar Miller
Justin Forsett
Giovani Bernard
Ronnie Hillman
Mark Ingram
Ahmad Bradshaw
Shane Vereen – In PPR only (next category in non-PPR)
Alfred Morris
We’re probably playing the matchups at this point, but based on recent production, volume, and role for the rest of the season, the next best options are:
Denard Robinson
Rashad Jennings
Frank Gore
Based on role and/or 100% health (or close), these options would be solid starters, if not very good starters:
Reggie Bush
Bobby Rainey – Until we see Charles Sims take over, we have to assume at this point that Rainey is the main guy
Jeremy Hill
Ryan Mathews
And at least with these guys, we should feel confident in a fairly substantial role:
Trent Richardson
Jerick McKinnon – Takes a big hit if AP is in the mix
Darren McFadden
Joique Bell
Chris Ivory
Tre Mason – Some upside and he’s taking over
Darren Sproles
With most of these players in the last two tiers, you’re playing the matchups and looking closely at your scoring system (i.e. Darren Sproles in a PPR).
And now it’s wide open.
Unfortunately, it’s extremely time consuming to cover all league sizes, so we’ll have to first try to figure out which backs are worth rostering in a typical 12-team league:
Fred Jackson – Assuming he’s healthy and back in 1-2 weeks
Terrance West – Obviously, in the mix
Ben Tate – Also still in the mix
Pierre Thomas – Assuming he’s back soon
Bishop Sankey
Knile Davis
Charles Sims – He does have some upside if he can take control of this backfield
Montee Ball – On the mend and at least big upside if Hillman is out
Jonas Gray
Isaiah Crowell
Branden Oliver – Although he could be screwed with Mathews back
Davis is a top handcuff, and Sims is worth rostering due to his potential to ascend to the top of the depth chart in the coming weeks. Ball is certainly worth a look being attached to this great offense. And should Ronnie Hillman get hurt, Ball’s likely a top-15 back or better. It looks like Gray will have a chance to help you most weeks, but we’ll have absolutely no idea which weeks. Crowell re-emerged in Week Ten.
We also have this wild card, and we didn’t jump all over him as a possible pickup because I’m just not sure he’s going to play. For right or wrong, I have been hesitant to try to be a hero and push players on shaky ground.
Adrian Peterson
I’m hardly sure here on Friday November 7, 2014, and this thing looks like it could drag out for a little while. There’s a legit chance he still won’t play, so he’s been an incredibly frustrating guy to cover because no one knows what’s going to happen.
I’d probably hang on to him around this point, though, and the rest of my roster depends on my expectations. If I’m looking to handcuff a key starter, I’ll retain guys like:
Alfred Blue
Carlos Hyde
James Starks
Theo Riddick – In PPR
Joseph Randle
Andre Williams
Bryce Brown
Anthony Dixon
LeGarrette Blount
Otherwise, unless you really need someone with a little more than a pulse, you may want to stash an upside option, a guy who could emerge as a late waiver wire gem if things work out in terms of a new opportunity due to injury, coach’s decision, etc. like:
Devonta Freeman
Bernard Pierce
Lorenzo Taliaferro
Zac Stacy
There’s also a larger group of options who are borderline roster-worthy and have more immediate value than the guys listed in the tier above. These guys at least have a puncher’s chance:
Chris Johnson
Matt Asiata
Steven Jackson
Jonathan Stewart
DeAngelo Williams
Antone Smith
Next up, we have the lowest-level of complementary players who have a chance to help you with minimal expectations (I’m talking 7-8 points in a PPR):
Benny Cunningham
Roy Helu
Lance Dunbar
Toby Gerhart
There’s a smaller group of options who need some help, but would have serious value if they could get some help in the form of an injury or two on his roster:
Travaris Cadet
Peyton Hillis
Khiry Robinson
Daniel Thomas
Latavius Murray
And then the bottom of the barrel, guys who it’s hard to justify a roster spot but aren’t completely hopeless, like:
Doug Martin
Robert Turbin
Shonn Greene
De'Anthony Thomas
Damien Williams
Dexter McCluster
Jacquizz Rodgers
Donald Brown
Christine Michael
Juwan Thompson
Best Playoff Week Schedules (Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen)
- Mark Ingram - @PIT, CAR, @CHI, ATL
- Eddie Lacy - NE, ATL, @BUF, @TB
- Le'Veon Bell - NO, @CIN, @ATL, KC
- Bobby Rainey/Charles Sims - CIN, @DET, @CAR, GB
- Reggie Bush/Joquie Bell - CHI, TB, MIN, @CHI
- Arian Foster - TEN, @JAC, @IND, BAL
Wide Receivers
It’s not easy to classify these guys, since there’s such great depth and up-and-down performances, but we’ll do our best to classify them.
Weekly starters:
Antonio Brown
Demaryius Thomas
Jordy Nelson
Dez Bryant
Randall Cobb
A.J. Green
Calvin Johnson
Julio Jones
Jeremy Maclin
I think it’s fair to say that these nine players should be started each week, no matter what. Jeremy Maclin certainly deserves to be on this list at this point.
It’s entirely possible that someone has 2-3 of these players above, so they may not even need another starter at this position. But I would imagine that the following group also belongs in your lineup each week:
Emmanuel Sanders
Sammy Watkins
Alshon Jeffery
T.Y. Hilton
Golden Tate
Brandon Marshall
Kelvin Benjamin
DeSean Jackson
I can’t call this next group must-starts or slam dunks, but for most they are strong options each week, as at worst WR3s:
Odell Beckham – Love him as an ascending guy
Mike Wallace
Vincent Jackson
Brandon LaFell
Mike Evans
Larry Fitzgerald
Steve Smith
Mohamed Sanu
DeAndre Hopkins
Note: I’d put Josh Gordon in this group without confirmation that he can step right in and put up big numbers.
Next we have a group of players who should be in lineups each week in larger (14 teams or more) or competitive leagues:
Brandin Cooks – Hey, start him at home
Andre Johnson
Roddy White
Michael Floyd
Julian Edelman
Torrey Smith
Rueben Randle
Keenan Allen
Terrance Williams
Percy Harvin
I’ve actually listed 36 WRs, which should generally take care of three starters in a typical 12-team league. Of course, we still do have bye weeks and some teams could be hurting, so most typically need to dig a little deeper. Most of the guys listed next are week-to-week guys, but some are emerging and have been surprisingly productive, like:
Allen Robinson
Martavis Bryant
James Jones
Andrew Hawkins
There are also some underperforming guys who we all thought would be doing better, but are still worth using if you need them:
Kendall Wright
Pierre Garcon
Cordarrelle Patterson
Reggie Wayne
Michael Crabtree
Eric Decker
Marques Colston
And we have some low-end guys who either have legit upside or who have a chance to be sneaky-productive and are still worth rostering:
Justin Hunter – Upside due to deep shots and red zone looks
Greg Jennings
Doug Baldwin
Davante Adams
Andre Holmes
Wes Welker
Markus Wheaton – Has some upside each week now
Jordan Matthews
Before we get into a tier of upside options who are worth starting on the hopes they make a big play or score, we still have some unexciting yet active options who are worthy of consideration if you’re hurting:
Dwayne Bowe
Kenny Britt
Cecil Shorts
Anquan Boldin
Jarvis Landry
Riley Cooper
Malcom Floyd
Some upside options worth hanging on to or picking up and using if the situation calls for it:
John Brown
Kenny Stills
Allen Hurns
Donte Moncrief – Likely needs Wayne out, though
And finally, some options who probably aren’t worth a roster spot in a 12-team league but who have a chance if things break right for them or you’re very desperate:
Robert Woods
Brian Hartline
Jerricho Cotchery
Taylor Gabriel
Jarius Wright
Eddie Royal
Harry Douglas
Jermaine Kearse
Stevie Johnson
Danny Amendola
Best Playoff Week Schedules (Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen)
- Calvin Johnson/Golden Tate - CHI, TB, MIN, @CHI
- Julio Jones/Roddy White - ARI, @GB, PIT, @NO
- Dez Bryant/Terrance Williams - PHI, @CHI, @PHI, IND
- Brandin Cooks/Marques Colston - @PIT, CAR, @CHI, ATL
- Andre Johnson/DeAndre Hopkins - TEN, @JAC, @IND, BAL
- Kelvin Benjamin - @MIN, @NO, TB, CLE
- AJ Green/Mohamed Sanu - @TB, PIT, @CLE, DEN
- Jordy Nelson/Randall Cobb - NE, ATL, @BUF, @TB
- Justin Hunter/Kendall Wright - @HOU, NYG, NYJ, @JAC
- Desean Jackson/Pierre Garcon - @IND, STL, @NYG, PHI
Tight Ends
It really hasn’t been a good year for the TEs, at least in terms of consistent production. It’s very top-heavy, of course, and there are some high-end options who simply won’t do it each week.
Weekly starters:
Rob Gronkowski
Jimmy Graham
Julius Thomas
Antonio Gates
Greg Olsen
Most of these guys above are slam-dunks, although Greg Olsen is coming off two unproductive games in a row and his QB is struggling, so he could drop in 1-2 weeks.
Next up, here are the players who you should be inclined to use if you don’t have one of the players listed above:
Martellus Bennett
Dwayne Allen
Jason Witten
Travis Kelce
Note: Jordan Cameron would be here if he were actually playing, but his status is in doubt.
Next up, if I didn’t have one of these guys listed above, there’s a good chance I’ll be playing the matchups, but I’d be inclined to use:
Delanie Walker
Zach Ertz – Great schedule
Owen Daniels
Jordan Reed
Larry Donnell
Vernon Davis – Very good schedule
The top low-end options to consider with a good matchup are:
Heath Miller
Charles Clay
Coby Fleener
Mychal Rivera
Scott Chandler
Clay Harbor
We also have some upside guys who have a legit chance to emerge and are worth rostering in a larger or competitive league:
Kyle Rudolph – Likely back in 1-2 weeks and has a chance to help you
Tim Wright
Eric Ebron
Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Ladarius Green
Jace Amaro – Probably dead with Vick in, though
I’d classify the rest as nothing more than desperation plays, and poor ones at that:
Jared Cook
Jermaine Gresham
Niles Paul
Richard Rodgers
Andrew Quarless
John Carlson
Best Playoff Week Schedules (Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen)
- Zach Ertz - @DAL, SEA, DAL, @WAS
- Eric Ebron - CHI, TB, MIN, @CHI
- Travis Kelce - DEN, @ARI, OAK, @PIT
- Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener - WAS, @CLE, HOU, @DAL
- Vernon Davis - SEA, @OAK, @SEA, SD
- Delanie Walker - @HOU, NYG, NYJ, @JAC
- Larry Donnell - @JAC, @TEN, WAS, @STL
Place Kickers
For this position, I’ll simply list the players in three groups. The first group consists of guys I’d use each week, no questions asked (unless they had a serious weather issue).
Stephen Gostkowski
Dan Bailey
Steven Hauschka
Adam Vinatieri
Justin Tucker
Next up, I’d be inclined to use one of these guys, unless they went cold or there were mitigating circumstances that could hurt their chances:
Cody Parkey
Mason Crosby
Shaun Suisham
Phil Dawson
Shayne Graham
After this, you’re just playing the matchups as best as you can and chasing points with anyone who gets hot. The next best options are:
Chandler Catanzaro
Caleb Sturgis
Mike Nugent
Blair Walsh
Dan Carpenter
Kai Forbath
Nick Novak
If you’re digging deeper than this, you’re probably in trouble.
Team Defenses
Obviously, the defenses have been more of a farce than ever, but that does mean I might just settle in with one of the quality units in 2014 and try not to chase the points. Those teams currently are:
DET
DEN
BUF
MIA
HOU
NE
CLE
Otherwise, you’re obviously playing the matchups, and the best options are:
PHI
GB
SEA
MIN
BAL
IND
CAR
ARI
KC
You really also need to understand your scoring if points and yardage allowed factor in because some teams may not be getting sacks or turnovers, but they have value with a good matchup and a legit chance to gain points for a low number of points and yards allowed. There are some viable teams if that’s the case, like:
SF
PIT
WAS
STL
Best Playoff Week Schedules (Weeks Thirteen through Sixteen)
- Det - CHI, TB, MIN, @CHI
- Phi - @DAL, SEA, DAL, @WAS
- Hou - TEN, @JAC, @IND, BAL
- NYG - @JAC, @TEN, WAS, @STL
